Components of Kenya\u27s future population growth and population policy implications

The world’s population has grown rapidly from about 2.5 billion in 1950 to a current size of 5.8 billion. As noted in this report, most of the increase has been recorded in the developing countries of Africa, Asia, and Latin America due to continued high fertility in the face of reductions in levels of mortality. Kenya provides a unique opportunity to study the impact of various policy options on future population growth. The primary objective of this study is to measure the impact of different causes of continued population growth on Kenya’s future size and to formulate appropriate policy measures to minimize the adverse socioeconomic consequences of population growth. This study briefly reviews population policies pursued by the Kenyan government since the formulation of the first such policy in 1967. Projections made by the World Bank and the United Nations are summarized, and a new set of projections is presented to highlight the contributions of the different causes of future growth. The study concludes with policy implications emanating from this analysis

Demographic trends in Sub-Saharan Africa

The study of demographic trends in sub-Saharan Africa though crucial in the assessment of the impact of population size and growth on the overall socio-economic development in the region, has received the least attention due to lack of reliable data for most of the countries. This paper focuses on the utilization of available data secured through population censuses and demographic surveys particularly the World Fertility Survey to ascertain trends in fertility and mortality. The estimates derived from the above sources should be interpreted with caution since they suffer from diverse deficiencies in the data base particularly coverage, content and consistency. It is apparent, though debatable, from the available estimates that fertility has increased in some countries--Kenya and Cameroon; has remained almost stable in Benin, Ivory Coast and Lesotho; and has slightly declined in Ghana. The underlying factors with regard to the apparent increase hinge on the improvement in the socio-economic indicators i.e. education and health services; relaxation of traditional controls i.e. breastfeeding and post-partum abstinence; and a reduction in the level of sterility. As far as trends in mortality are concerned, the estimates posit a decline in both infant and child mortality in Kenya, Benin and Ivory Coast; infant mortality in Cameroon; and child mortality in North Sudan and Senegal. Overall mortality levels are high in Western and Central Africa and low in Eastern and Southern Africa