Kidney and Pancreas Transplantation in the United States, 1997–2006: The HRSA Breakthrough Collaboratives and the 58 DSA Challenge

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/74980/1/j.1600-6143.2008.02173.x.pd

Observations of Energetic-particle Population Enhancements along Intermittent Structures near the Sun from the Parker Solar Probe

Observations at 1 au have confirmed that enhancements in measured energetic-particle (EP) fluxes are statistically associated with "rough" magnetic fields, i.e., fields with atypically large spatial derivatives or increments, as measured by the Partial Variance of Increments (PVI) method. One way to interpret this observation is as an association of the EPs with trapping or channeling within magnetic flux tubes, possibly near their boundaries. However, it remains unclear whether this association is a transport or local effect; i.e., the particles might have been energized at a distant location, perhaps by shocks or reconnection, or they might experience local energization or re-acceleration. The Parker Solar Probe (PSP), even in its first two orbits, offers a unique opportunity to study this statistical correlation closer to the corona. As a first step, we analyze the separate correlation properties of the EPs measured by the Integrated Science Investigation of the Sun (IS⊙IS) instruments during the first solar encounter. The distribution of time intervals between a specific type of event, i.e., the waiting time, can indicate the nature of the underlying process. We find that the IS⊙IS observations show a power-law distribution of waiting times, indicating a correlated (non-Poisson) distribution. Analysis of low-energy (~15 – 200 keV/nuc) IS⊙IS data suggests that the results are consistent with the 1 au studies, although we find hints of some unexpected behavior. A more complete understanding of these statistical distributions will provide valuable insights into the origin and propagation of solar EPs, a picture that should become clear with future PSP orbits

High-Dose Carmustine, Etoposide, and Cyclophosphamide Followed by Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation for Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma

AbstractAllogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) has been shown to be curative in a group of patients with aggressive non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL). A previous study has demonstrated equivalent outcomes with a conditioning regimen based on total body irradiation and another not based on total body irradiation with preparative therapy using cyclophosphamide, carmustine, and etoposide (CBV) in autologous HCT. We investigated the safety and efficacy of using CBV in an allogeneic setting. Patients were required to have relapsed or be at high risk for subsequent relapse of NHL. All patients had a fully HLA-matched sibling donor. Patients received carmustine (15 mg/kg), etoposide (60 mg/kg), and cyclophosphamide (100 mg/kg) on days −6, −4, and −2, respectively, followed by allogeneic HCT. All patients were treated with cyclosporine and methylprednisolone as prophylaxis for graft-versus-host disease (GVHD). Thirty-one patients (median age, 46 years) who were felt to be inappropriate candidates for autologous transplantation were enrolled. Each subject had a median of 3 previous chemotherapy regimens. All patients engrafted. Fifteen of 31 patients are alive. Median follow-up time was 11.5 months (range, .4-126). There were 8 deaths due to relapse. Nonrelapse mortality (n = 8) included infection (n = 3), GVHD (n = 2), diffuse alveolar hemorrhage (n = 1), veno-occlusive disease in the setting of concurrent acute GVHD of the liver (n = 1), and leukoencephalopathy (n = 1). Probabilities of event-free survival and overall survival were, respectively, 44% (95% confidence interval, 26%-62%) and 51% (33%-69%) at 1 year and 44% (26%-62%) and 47% (29%-65%) at 5 years. Probability of relapse was 33% (15%-51%) at 1 year and 5 years. Probability of nonrelapse mortality was 31% (13%-49%) at 1 year and 5 years. Incidences were 29% for acute GVHD and 39% for chronic GVHD. None of the 12 patients who developed chronic GVHD has disease recurrence. Patients who had required >3 previous chemotherapy regimens before HCT had an increased probability of relapse. CBV is an effective preparative regimen for patients with aggressive NHL who undergo allogeneic HCT

Semi-parametric modeling of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Orange County, California using tests, cases, deaths, and seroprevalence data

Mechanistic modeling of SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics and frequently estimating model parameters using streaming surveillance data are important components of the pandemic response toolbox. However, transmission model parameter estimation can be imprecise, and sometimes even impossible, because surveillance data are noisy and not informative about all aspects of the mechanistic model. To partially overcome this obstacle, we propose a Bayesian modeling framework that integrates multiple surveillance data streams. Our model uses both SARS-CoV-2 diagnostics test and mortality time series to estimate our model parameters, while also explicitly integrating seroprevalence data from cross-sectional studies. Importantly, our data generating model for incidence data takes into account changes in the total number of tests performed. We model transmission rate, infection-to-fatality ratio, and a parameter controlling a functional relationship between the true case incidence and the fraction of positive tests as time-varying quantities and estimate changes of these parameters nonparameterically. We apply our Bayesian data integration method to COVID-19 surveillance data collected in Orange County, California between March, 2020 and March, 2021 and find that 33-62% of the Orange County residents experienced SARS-CoV-2 infection by the end of February, 2021. Despite this high number of infections, our results show that the abrupt end of the winter surge in January, 2021, was due to both behavioral changes and a high level of accumulated natural immunity.Comment: 37 pages, 16 pages of main text, including 5 figures, 1 tabl

Solar Neutrino Constraints on the BBN Production of Li

Using the recent WMAP determination of the baryon-to-photon ratio, 10^{10} \eta = 6.14 to within a few percent, big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) calculations can make relatively accurate predictions of the abundances of the light element isotopes which can be tested against observational abundance determinations. At this value of \eta, the Li7 abundance is predicted to be significantly higher than that observed in low metallicity halo dwarf stars. Among the possible resolutions to this discrepancy are 1) Li7 depletion in the atmosphere of stars; 2) systematic errors originating from the choice of stellar parameters - most notably the surface temperature; and 3) systematic errors in the nuclear cross sections used in the nucleosynthesis calculations. Here, we explore the last possibility, and focus on possible systematic errors in the He3(\alpha,\gamma)Be7 reaction, which is the only important Li7 production channel in BBN. The absolute value of the cross section for this key reaction is known relatively poorly both experimentally and theoretically. The agreement between the standard solar model and solar neutrino data thus provides additional constraints on variations in the cross section (S_{34}). Using the standard solar model of Bahcall, and recent solar neutrino data, we can exclude systematic S_{34} variations of the magnitude needed to resolve the BBN Li7 problem at > 95% CL. Additional laboratory data on He3(\alpha,\gamma)Be7 will sharpen our understanding of both BBN and solar neutrinos, particularly if care is taken in determining the absolute cross section and its uncertainties. Nevertheless, it already seems that this ``nuclear fix'' to the Li7 BBN problem is unlikely; other possible solutions are briefly discussed.Comment: 21 pages, 3 ps figure

Results from the centers for disease control and prevention's predict the 2013-2014 Influenza Season Challenge

Background: Early insights into the timing of the start, peak, and intensity of the influenza season could be useful in planning influenza prevention and control activities. To encourage development and innovation in influenza forecasting, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) organized a challenge to predict the 2013-14 Unites States influenza season. Methods: Challenge contestants were asked to forecast the start, peak, and intensity of the 2013-2014 influenza season at the national level and at any or all Health and Human Services (HHS) region level(s). The challenge ran from December 1, 2013-March 27, 2014; contestants were required to submit 9 biweekly forecasts at the national level to be eligible. The selection of the winner was based on expert evaluation of the methodology used to make the prediction and the accuracy of the prediction as judged against the U.S. Outpatient Influenza-like Illness Surveillance Network (ILINet). Results: Nine teams submitted 13 forecasts for all required milestones. The first forecast was due on December 2, 2013; 3/13 forecasts received correctly predicted the start of the influenza season within one week, 1/13 predicted the peak within 1 week, 3/13 predicted the peak ILINet percentage within 1 %, and 4/13 predicted the season duration within 1 week. For the prediction due on December 19, 2013, the number of forecasts that correctly forecasted the peak week increased to 2/13, the peak percentage to 6/13, and the duration of the season to 6/13. As the season progressed, the forecasts became more stable and were closer to the season milestones. Conclusion: Forecasting has become technically feasible, but further efforts are needed to improve forecast accuracy so that policy makers can reliably use these predictions. CDC and challenge contestants plan to build upon the methods developed during this contest to improve the accuracy of influenza forecasts. © 2016 The Author(s)

Observations of Energetic-particle Population Enhancements along Intermittent Structures near the Sun from the Parker Solar Probe

Observations at 1 au have confirmed that enhancements in measured energetic-particle (EP) fluxes are statistically associated with "rough" magnetic fields, i.e., fields with atypically large spatial derivatives or increments, as measured by the Partial Variance of Increments (PVI) method. One way to interpret this observation is as an association of the EPs with trapping or channeling within magnetic flux tubes, possibly near their boundaries. However, it remains unclear whether this association is a transport or local effect; i.e., the particles might have been energized at a distant location, perhaps by shocks or reconnection, or they might experience local energization or re-acceleration. The Parker Solar Probe (PSP), even in its first two orbits, offers a unique opportunity to study this statistical correlation closer to the corona. As a first step, we analyze the separate correlation properties of the EPs measured by the Integrated Science Investigation of the Sun (IS⊙IS) instruments during the first solar encounter. The distribution of time intervals between a specific type of event, i.e., the waiting time, can indicate the nature of the underlying process. We find that the IS⊙IS observations show a power-law distribution of waiting times, indicating a correlated (non-Poisson) distribution. Analysis of low-energy (~15 – 200 keV/nuc) IS⊙IS data suggests that the results are consistent with the 1 au studies, although we find hints of some unexpected behavior. A more complete understanding of these statistical distributions will provide valuable insights into the origin and propagation of solar EPs, a picture that should become clear with future PSP orbits

Observations of Energetic-Particle Population Enhancements along Intermittent Structures near the Sun from Parker Solar Probe

Observations at 1 au have confirmed that enhancements in measured energetic particle fluxes are statistically associated with "rough" magnetic fields, i.e., fields having atypically large spatial derivatives or increments, as measured by the Partial Variance of Increments (PVI) method. One way to interpret this observation is as an association of the energetic particles with trapping or channeling within magnetic flux tubes, possibly near their boundaries. However, it remains unclear whether this association is a transport or local effect; i.e., the particles might have been energized at a distant location, perhaps by shocks or reconnection, or they might experience local energization or re-acceleration. The Parker Solar Probe (PSP), even in its first two orbits, offers a unique opportunity to study this statistical correlation closer to the corona. As a first step, we analyze the separate correlation properties of the energetic particles measured by the \isois instruments during the first solar encounter. The distribution of time intervals between a specific type of event, i.e., the waiting time, can indicate the nature of the underlying process. We find that the \isois observations show a power-law distribution of waiting times, indicating a correlated (non-Poisson) distribution. Analysis of low-energy \isois data suggests that the results are consistent with the 1 au studies, although we find hints of some unexpected behavior. A more complete understanding of these statistical distributions will provide valuable insights into the origin and propagation of solar energetic particles, a picture that should become clear with future PSP orbits.Comment: Accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal Supplement, PSP special issu