Correspondence - New Era or New Error? Technology and the Future of Deterrence

Ryan Snyder and Benoît Pelopidas respond to Keir A. Lieber and Daryl G. Press's spring 2017 article, “The New Era of Counterforce: Technological Change and the Future of Nuclear Deterrence.

Preventing Escalation During Conventional Wars

PASCC Grant No. N00244-­‐14-­‐1-­‐002

Appendix for Keir A. Lieber and Daryl G. Press, "The New Era of Counterforce: Technological Change and the Future of Nuclear Deterrence," International Security, Vol. 41, No. 4 (Spring 2017), pp. 9–49.

This document is a technical appendix, which accompanies the article, "The New Era of Counterforce.

Coorespondence, The Short Shadow of U.S. Primacy?

Keir Lieber and Daryl Press’s recent article presents a compelling case for the rise of U.S. nuclear primacy in the twenty-ªrst century. The authors, however, fail to address what they maintain is a central question in international relations scholarship: “Does nuclear primacy grant the superior side real coercive leverage in political disputes?”1 Their passing discussion of the theme does little justice to the merit of the question, and as a result the article seems incomplete. In fact, the United States already enjoys primacy in the vast majority of its relations with other countries, but recent events suggest that this preponderance of power has not led to coercive leverage