MODELING DYNAMICS OF OZONE AND NITROGEN OXIDES AT SUMMIT, GREENLAND WITH A 1-D PROCESS-SCALE MODEL

This work presents a 1-D process scale model used to investigate the chemical dynamics and temporal variability of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and ozone (O3) within and above snowpack at Summit, Greenland for March-May 2009 and estimates surface exchange of NOx between the snowpack and surface layer in April-May 2009. The model assumes the surface of snowflakes have a Liquid Like Layer (LLL) where aqueous chemistry occurs and interacts with the interstitial air of the snowpack. Model parameters and initialization are physically and chemically representative of snowpack at Summit, Greenland and model results are compared to measurements of NOx and O3 collected by our group at Summit, Greenland from 2008-2010. The model paired with measurements confirmed the main hypothesis in literature that photolysis of nitrate on the surface of snowflakes is responsible for nitrogen dioxide (NO2) production in the top ~50 cm of the snowpack at solar noon for March – May time periods in 2009. Nighttime peaks of NO2 in the snowpack for April and May were reproduced with aqueous formation of peroxynitric acid (HNO4) in the top ~50 cm of the snowpack with subsequent mass transfer to the gas phase, decomposition to form NO2 at nighttime, and transportation of the NO2 to depths of 2 meters. Modeled production of HNO4 was hindered in March 2009 due to the low production of its precursor, hydroperoxy radical, resulting in underestimation of nighttime NO2 in the snowpack for March 2009. The aqueous reaction of O3 with formic acid was the major sync of O3 in the snowpack for March-May, 2009. Nitrogen monoxide (NO) production in the top ~50 cm of the snowpack is related to the photolysis of NO2, which underrepresents NO in May of 2009. Modeled surface exchange of NOx in April and May are on the order of 1011 molecules m-2 s-1. Removal of measured downward fluxes of NO and NO2 in measured fluxes resulted in agreement between measured NOx fluxes and modeled surface exchange in April and an order of magnitude deviation in May. Modeled transport of NOx above the snowpack in May shows an order of magnitude increase of NOx fluxes in the first 50 cm of the snowpack and is attributed to the production of NO2 during the day from the thermal decomposition and photolysis of peroxynitric acid with minor contributions of NO from HONO photolysis in the early morning

Poverty, Disease, and the Ecology of Complex Systems

Understanding why some human populations remain persistently poor remains a significant challenge for both the social and natural sciences. The extremely poor are generally reliant on their immediate natural resource base for subsistence and suffer high rates of mortality due to parasitic and infectious diseases. Economists have developed a range of models to explain persistent poverty, often characterized as poverty traps, but these rarely account for complex biophysical processes. In this Essay, we argue that by coupling insights from ecology and economics, we can begin to model and understand the complex dynamics that underlie the generation and maintenance of poverty traps, which can then be used to inform analyses and possible intervention policies. To illustrate the utility of this approach, we present a simple coupled model of infectious diseases and economic growth, where poverty traps emerge from nonlinear relationships determined by the number of pathogens in the system. These nonlinearities are comparable to those often incorporated into poverty trap models in the economics literature, but, importantly, here the mechanism is anchored in core ecological principles. Coupled models of this sort could be usefully developed in many economically important biophysical systems—such as agriculture, fisheries, nutrition, and land use change—to serve as foundations for deeper explorations of how fundamental ecological processes influence structural poverty and economic development

Effects of adolescent childbearing on maternal depression and problem behaviors: A prospective, population-based study using risk-set propensity scores

Adolescent mothers are reportedly at risk for depression and problem behaviors in the postpartum period, but studies have rarely considered developmental context and have yet to disentangle the effects of childbearing on adolescent functioning from selection effects that are associated with early pregnancy. The current study examined changes in adolescent depression, conduct problems and substance use (alcohol, tobacco and marijuana) across the peripartum period using risk-set propensity scores derived from a population-based, prospective study that began in childhood (the Pittsburgh Girls Study, PGS). Each of 147 childbearing adolescents (ages 12-19) was matched with two same-age, non-childbearing adolescents (n = 294) on pregnancy propensity using 15 time-varying risk variables derived from sociodemographic, psychopathology, substance use, family, peer and neighborhood domains assessed in the PGS wave prior to each pregnancy (T1). Postpartum depression and problem behaviors were assessed within the first 6 months following delivery (T2); data gathered from the non-childbearing adolescent controls spanned the same interval. Within the childbearing group, conduct problems and marijuana use reduced from T1 to T2, but depression severity and frequency of alcohol or tobacco use showed no change. When change was compared across the matched groups, conduct problems showed a greater reduction among childbearing adolescents. Relative to non-childbearing adolescents who reported more frequent substance use with time, childbearing adolescents reported no change in alcohol use and less frequent use of marijuana across the peripartum period. There were no group differences in patterns of change for depression severity and tobacco use. The results do not support the notion that adolescent childbearing represents a period of heightened risk for depression or problem behaviors

The evolution of interstellar clouds in a streaming hot plasma including heat conduction

To examine the evolution of giant molecular clouds in the stream of a hot plasma we performed two-dimensional hydrodynamical simulations that take full account of self-gravity, heating and cooling effects and heat conduction by electrons. We use the thermal conductivity of a fully ionized hydrogen plasma proposed by Spitzer and a saturated heat flux according to Cowie & McKee in regions where the mean free path of the electrons is large compared to the temperature scaleheight. Significant structural and evolutionary differences occur between simulations with and without heat conduction. Dense clouds in pure dynamical models experience dynamical destruction by Kelvin-Helmholtz (KH) instability. In static models heat conduction leads to evaporation of such clouds. Heat conduction acting on clouds in a gas stream smooths out steep temperature and density gradients at the edge of the cloud because the conduction timescale is shorter than the cooling timescale. This diminishes the velocity gradient between the streaming plasma and the cloud, so that the timescale for the onset of KH instabilities increases, and the surface of the cloud becomes less susceptible to KH instabilities. The stabilisation effect of heat conduction against KH instability is more pronounced for smaller and less massive clouds. As in the static case more realistic cloud conditions allow heat conduction to transfer hot material onto the cloud's surface and to mix the accreted gas deeper into the cloud.Comment: 19 pages, 12 figures, accepted in Astronomy and Astrophysic

Evaporation and condensation of spherical interstellar clouds. Self-consistent models with saturated heat conduction and cooling

Shortened version: The fate of IS clouds embedded in a hot tenuous medium depends on whether the clouds suffer from evaporation or whether material condensates onto them. Analytical solutions for the rate of evaporative mass loss from an isolated spherical cloud embedded in a hot tenuous gas are deduced by Cowie & McKee (1977). In order to test the validity of the analytical results for more realistic IS conditions the full hydrodynamical equations must be treated. Therefore, 2D numerical simulations of the evolution of IS clouds %are performed with different internal density structures and surrounded by a hot plasma reservoir. Self-gravity, interstellar heating and cooling effects and heat conduction by electrons are added. Classical thermal conductivity of a fully ionized hydrogen plasma and saturated heat flux are considered. Using pure hydrodynamics and classical heat flux we can reproduce the analytical results. Heat flux saturation reduces the evaporation rate by one order of magnitude below the analytical value. The evolution changes totally for more realistic conditions when interstellar heating and cooling effects stabilize the self-gravity. Evaporation then turns into condensation, because the additional energy by heat conduction can be transported away from the interface and radiated off efficiently from the cloud's inner parts. I.e. that the saturated heat flux consideration is inevitable for IS clouds embedded in hot tenuous gas. Various consequences are discussed in the paper.Comment: 16 pages, 24 figures, accepted in Astronomy and Astrophysic

Validation of whole-blood transcriptome signature during microdose recombinant human erythropoietin (rHuEpo) administration

BACKGROUND: Recombinant human erythropoietin (rHuEpo) can improve human performance and is therefore frequently abused by athletes. As a result, the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) introduced the Athlete Biological Passport (ABP) as an indirect method to detect blood doping. Despite this progress, challenges remain to detect blood manipulations such as the use of microdoses of rHuEpo. METHODS: Forty-five whole-blood transcriptional markers of rHuEpo previously derived from a high-dose rHuEpo administration trial were used to assess whether microdoses of rHuEpo could be detected in 14 trained subjects and whether these markers may be confounded by exercise (n = 14 trained subjects) and altitude training (n = 21 elite runners and n = 4 elite rowers, respectively). Differential gene expression analysis was carried out following normalisation and significance declared following application of a 5% false discovery rate (FDR) and a 1.5 fold-change. Adaptive model analysis was also applied to incorporate these markers for the detection of rHuEpo. RESULTS: ALAS2, BCL2L1, DCAF12, EPB42, GMPR, SELENBP1, SLC4A1, TMOD1 and TRIM58 were differentially expressed during and throughout the post phase of microdose rHuEpo administration. The CD247 and TRIM58 genes were significantly up- and down-regulated, respectively, immediately following exercise when compared with the baseline both before and after rHuEpo/placebo. No significant gene expression changes were found 30 min after exercise in either rHuEpo or placebo groups. ALAS2, BCL2L1, DCAF12, SLC4A1, TMOD1 and TRIM58 tended to be significantly expressed in the elite runners ten days after arriving at altitude and one week after returning from altitude (FDR > 0.059, fold-change varying from 1.39 to 1.63). Following application of the adaptive model, 15 genes showed a high sensitivity (≥ 93%) and specificity (≥ 71%), with BCL2L1 and CSDA having the highest sensitivity (93%) and specificity (93%). CONCLUSIONS: Current results provide further evidence that transcriptional biomarkers can strengthen the ABP approach by significantly prolonging the detection window and improving the sensitivity and specificity of blood doping detection. Further studies are required to confirm, and if necessary, integrate the confounding effects of altitude training on blood doping

The spin-orbit alignment of the transiting exoplanet WASP-3b from Rossiter-McLaughlin observations

We present an observation of the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect for the planetary system WASP-3. Radial velocity measurements were made during transit using the SOPHIE spectrograph at the 1.93m telescope at Haute-Provence Observatory. The shape of the effect shows that the sky-projected angle between the stellar rotation axis and planetary orbital axis (lambda) is small and consistent with zero within 2 sigma; lambda = 15 +10/-9 deg. WASP-3b joins the ~two-thirds of planets with measured spin-orbit angles that are well aligned and are thought to have undergone a dynamically-gentle migration process such as planet-disc interactions. We find a systematic effect which leads to an anomalously high determination of the projected stellar rotational velocity (vsini = 19.6 +2.2/-2.1 km/s) compared to the value found from spectroscopic line broadening (vsini = 13.4 +/- 1.5 km/s). This is thought to be caused by a discrepancy in the assumptions made in the extraction and modelling of the data. Using a model developed by Hirano et al. (2009) designed to address this issue, we find vsini to be consistent with the value obtained from spectroscopic broadening measurements (vsini = 15.7 +1.4/-1.3 km/s).Comment: 7 pages, 3 figures, published in MNRAS 405 (2010) 1867-1872. Update includes discussion on differential rotaation and correction of typo

Coupling sky images with radiative transfer models: a new method to estimate cloud optical depth

A method for retrieving cloud optical depth (τc) using a UCSD developed ground-based sky imager (USI) is presented. The radiance red–blue ratio (RRBR) method is motivated from the analysis of simulated images of various τc produced by a radiative transfer model (RTM). From these images the basic parameters affecting the radiance and red–blue ratio (RBR) of a pixel are identified as the solar zenith angle (θ0), τc, solar pixel angle/scattering angle (ϑs), and pixel zenith angle/view angle (ϑz). The effects of these parameters are described and the functions for radiance, Iλτc, θ0, ϑs, ϑz, and RBRτc, θ0, ϑs, ϑz are retrieved from the RTM results. RBR, which is commonly used for cloud detection in sky images, provides non-unique solutions for τc, where RBR increases with τc up to about τc = 1 (depending on other parameters) and then decreases. Therefore, the RRBR algorithm uses the measured Iλmeasϑs, ϑz, in addition to RBRmeasϑs, ϑz, to obtain a unique solution for τc. The RRBR method is applied to images of liquid water clouds taken by a USI at the Oklahoma Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program site over the course of 220 days and compared against measurements from a microwave radiometer (MWR) and output from the Min et al. (2003) method for overcast skies. τc values ranged from 0 to 80 with values over 80, being capped and registered as 80. A τc RMSE of 2.5 between the Min et al. (2003) method and the USI are observed. The MWR and USI  have an RMSE of 2.2, which is well within the uncertainty of the MWR. The procedure developed here provides a foundation to test and develop other cloud detection algorithms

Epidemiological findings and medical, legal, and public health challenges of an investigation of severe soft tissue infections and deaths among injecting drug users: Ireland, 2000.

In May 2000, public health authorities in Dublin, Ireland, identified a cluster of unexplained severe illness among injecting drug users (IDUs). Similar clusters were also reported in Scotland and England. Concurrent investigations were undertaken to identify the aetiology and source of the illnesses. In Dublin, 22 IDUs were identified with injection-site inflammation resulting in hospitalization or death; eight (36%) died. Common clinical findings among patients with severe systemic symptoms included leukaemoid reaction and cardiogenic shock. Seventeen (77%) patients reported injecting heroin intramuscularly in the 2 weeks before illness. Of 11 patients with adequate specimens available for testing, two (18%) were positive by 16S rDNA PCR for Clostridium novyi. Clinical and laboratory findings suggested that histotoxic Clostridia caused a subset of infections in these related clusters. Empiric treatment for infections among IDUs was optimized for anaerobic organisms, and outreach led to increased enrolment in methadone treatment in Dublin. Many unique legal, medical, and public health challenges were encountered during the investigation of this outbreak