Australia's Dengue Risk Driven by Human Adaptation to Climate Change

Current and projected rainfall reduction in southeast Australia has seen the installation of large numbers of government-subsidised and ad hoc domestic water storage containers that could create the possibility of the mosquito Ae. aegypti expanding out of Queensland into southern Australian's urban regions. By assessing the past and current distribution of Ae. aegypti in Australia, we construct distributional models for this dengue vector for our current climate and projected climates for 2030 and 2050. The resulting mosquito distribution maps are compared to published theoretical temperature limits for Ae. aegypti and some differences are identified. Nonetheless, synthesising our mosquito distribution maps with dengue transmission climate limits derived from historical dengue epidemics in Australia suggests that the current proliferation of domestic water storage tanks could easily result in another range expansion of Ae. aegypti along with the associated dengue risk were the virus to be introduced