Lucky Stores, Gambling, and Addiction: Empirical Evidence from State Lottery Sales

There is a large body of literature in both psychology and economics documenting mistaken perceptions of randomness. In this paper we demonstrate that people appear to believe that "lightning will strike twice" when it comes to lottery jackpots. First, we show that in the week following the sale of a winning ticket, retailers that sell a winning jackpot ticket experience relative increases in game-specific ticket sales of between 12 and 38 percent, with the sales response increasing in the size of the jackpot. In addition, the increase in sales experienced by the winning vendor increases with the proportion of the local population comprised of high school dropouts, elderly adults, and households receiving public assistance. We further show that this increase in retail-game sales initially reflects an increase in total sales at the retail and zip code level. Second, we show that the increase in sales is persistent at the winning retailer. However, the data no not provide clear evidence that the increase in sales at the zip code level is persistent. It thus appears that in the long run, consumers are persistent in their habit of buying lottery tickets at the "lucky" store; however, as the shock to total gambling dissipates, there is no evidence that lottery gambling itself is habit forming or addictive.

Socioeconomic Disadvantage and Early Childbearing

We examine the empirical relationship between socioeconomic disadvantage and rates of early childbearing. First, we use data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) to confirm a strong correlation at the individual level - women who grow up "disadvantaged" are much more likely to give birth as teens. Then we aggregate Vital Statistics microdata from 1968 through 2003 to conduct a cohort-based analysis of the relationship between rates of socioeconomic disadvantage of a birth cohort and the cohort's subsequent early childbearing experiences. Our cohort level analysis implies an even tighter intergenerational correlation between rates of background disadvantage and early childbearing. But, when our analysis econometrically controls for fixed state and year of birth effects in the model to account for cultural and other differences across cohorts, the relationship between rates of disadvantage and early childbearing is found to be quite modest. For example, the elasticity of early childbearing rates by age 18 with respect to the probability of being born to a mother under age 18 is only 0.05. This suggests that broader, societal forces are far more important in determining rates of early childbearing than rates of socioeconomic disadvantage per se.

Acute Spinal Cord Injury: Correlations and Causal Relations Between Intraspinal Pressure, Spinal Cord Perfusion Pressure, Lactate-to-Pyruvate Ratio, and Limb Power.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE: We have recently developed monitoring from the injury site in patients with acute, severe traumatic spinal cord injuries to facilitate their management in the intensive care unit. This is analogous to monitoring from the brain in patients with traumatic brain injuries. This study aims to determine whether, after traumatic spinal cord injury, fluctuations in the monitored physiological, and metabolic parameters at the injury site are causally linked to changes in limb power. METHODS: This is an observational study of a cohort of adult patients with motor-incomplete spinal cord injuries, i.e., grade C American spinal injuries association Impairment Scale. A pressure probe and a microdialysis catheter were placed intradurally at the injury site. For up to a week after surgery, we monitored limb power, intraspinal pressure, spinal cord perfusion pressure, and tissue lactate-to-pyruvate ratio. We established correlations between these variables and performed Granger causality analysis. RESULTS: Nineteen patients, aged 22-70 years, were recruited. Motor score versus intraspinal pressure had exponential decay relation (intraspinal pressure rise to 20 mmHg was associated with drop of 11 motor points, but little drop in motor points as intraspinal pressure rose further, R2 = 0.98). Motor score versus spinal cord perfusion pressure (up to 110 mmHg) had linear relation (1.4 motor point rise/10 mmHg rise in spinal cord perfusion pressure, R2 = 0.96). Motor score versus lactate-to-pyruvate ratio (greater than 20) also had linear relation (0.8 motor score drop/10-point rise in lactate-to-pyruvate ratio, R2 = 0.92). Increased intraspinal pressure Granger-caused increase in lactate-to-pyruvate ratio, decrease in spinal cord perfusion, and decrease in motor score. Increased spinal cord perfusion Granger-caused decrease in lactate-to-pyruvate ratio and increase in motor score. Increased lactate-to-pyruvate ratio Granger-caused increase in intraspinal pressure, decrease in spinal cord perfusion, and decrease in motor score. Causality analysis also revealed multiple vicious cycles that amplify insults to the cord thus exacerbating cord damage. CONCLUSION: Monitoring intraspinal pressure, spinal cord perfusion pressure, lactate-to-pyruvate ratio, and intervening to normalize these parameters are likely to improve limb power

Subsidized Contraception, Fertility, and Sexual Behavior

This paper examines the impact of recent state-level Medicaid policy changes that expanded eligibility for family planning services to higher income women and to Medicaid clients whose benefits would expire otherwise. We begin by establishing that the income-based policy change led to a substantial increase in the number of program recipients. We then examine Vital Statistics birth data from 1990 to 2003 and determine that it also reduced overall births to non-teens by about two percent and to teens by over four percent. Our estimates suggest a nearly nine percent reduction in births to women age 20-44 made eligible by the policy change. We supplement our state-level analysis with an investigation of individual-level data from the 1988, 1995, and 2002 National Surveys of Family Growth (NSFG) to examine the impact of these policies on sexual behavior and contraceptive use. Evidence from this analysis suggests that the reduction in fertility associated with raising income thresholds for eligibility was accomplished via greater use of contraception. Our calculations indicate that allowing higher income women to receive federally-funded family planning cost on the order of $6,800 for each averted birth.

What happens when induction goes wrong: Case studies from the field

Although induction programmes are widely held to alleviate the pressures beginning teachers face early in their careers, what happens when beginning teachers do not receive adequate induction? While the research advocates effective and ongoing induction to acculturate new teachers to their careers, there is little research on the effects of unsuccessful induction on the teachers who undertake such programmes. The author is a long-standing advocate for beginning teacher induction, it is important to note that simply implementing a programme does not guarantee success. While induction practices have become more common in recent years, there are still no mandated structures for inducting teachers into the profession throughout Australia, although guidelines are forthcoming. This article showcases the types of programmes that some schools have implemented in the wake of “mandated” induction and the impacts that these programmes have on the teachers who undertake them. The negative effects on teacher morale and efficacy, when they are not supported in the early years of their careers, are highlighted to justify the importance of effective and ongoing induction. Interpretive phenomenological analysis was used to understand and interpret the ways in which the participants of the programmes experienced their induction. This analysis along with the content analysis of the interviews with the school’s leadership and a document review of the policies and procedures of induction provided detailed insight into the nature, purpose, strengths and shortcomings of the programmes in question

Beginning teacher induction in secondary schools: A best practice case study

Beginning teacher induction is becoming an increasingly popular process in acculturating teachers to their new careers. The problems that teachers face early in their careers are well known, and effective and ongoing induction is one of the foremost practices for alleviating the pressures that teachers face early in their careers. While induction practices have become more common in recent years, there are still no mandated structures for inducting teachers into the profession throughout Australia. In a collective case study of six different programs in independent schools in Sydney, Australia, the author showcases one case in particular that illustrated best practice when matched against other well known, successful international programs. In the current article the induction program is viewed in light of best practice internationally, and best practice criteria that have been ascertained from a selection of local, national and international reports and an international review of induction programs. The article showcases what best practice looks like from the perspective of the teachers who have undertaken the program and the school leadership who implemented the program

An exactly solvable self-convolutive recurrence

We consider a self-convolutive recurrence whose solution is the sequence of coefficients in the asymptotic expansion of the logarithmic derivative of the confluent hypergeometic function $U(a,b,z)$. By application of the Hilbert transform we convert this expression into an explicit, non-recursive solution in which the $n$th coefficient is expressed as the $(n-1)$th moment of a measure, and also as the trace of the $(n-1)$th iterate of a linear operator. Applications of these sequences, and hence of the explicit solution provided, are found in quantum field theory as the number of Feynman diagrams of a certain type and order, in Brownian motion theory, and in combinatorics

Ten Economic Facts About Crime and Incarceration in the United States

Crime and high rates of incarceration impose tremendous costs on society, with lasting negative effects on individuals, families, and communities. Rates of crime in the United States have been falling steadily, but still constitute a serious economic and social challenge. At the same time, the incarceration rate in the United States is so high -- more than 700 out of every 100,000 people are incarcerated -- that both crime scholars and policymakers alike question whether, for nonviolent criminals in particular, the social costs of incarceration exceed the social benefits