Anti-Competitive Marketing Practices in the Airline Industry

Consumers, airlines and the economy as a whole have benefited from airline deregulation. Government regulation was replaced by competition as the protector of the consumers. Airlines continue to pursue marketing strategies which reduce competition and as act as barriers to new entrants. This paper reviews some of those strategies and suggest actions by which policy makers might encourage competition

Family Environment Variables as Predictors of School Absenteeism Severity at Multiple Levels: Ensemble and Classification and Regression Tree Analysis

School attendance problems, including school absenteeism, are common to many students worldwide, and frameworks to better understand these heterogeneous students include multiple classes or tiers of intertwined risk factors as well as interventions. Recent studies have thus examined risk factors at varying levels of absenteeism severity to demarcate distinctions among these tiers. Prior studies in this regard have focused more on demographic and academic variables and less on family environment risk factors that are endemic to this population. The present study utilized ensemble and classification and regression tree analysis to identify potential family environment risk factors among youth (i.e., children and adolescents) at different levels of school absenteeism severity (i.e., 1 + %, 3 + %, 5 + %, 10 + %). Higher levels of absenteeism were also examined on an exploratory basis. Participants included 341 youth aged 5–17 years (M = 12.2; SD = 3.3) and their families from an outpatient therapy clinic (68.3%) and community (31.7%) setting, the latter from a family court and truancy diversion program cohort. Family environment risk factors tended to be more circumscribed and informative at higher levels of absenteeism, with greater diversity at lower levels. Higher levels of absenteeism appear more closely related to lower achievement orientation, active-recreational orientation, cohesion, and expressiveness, though several nuanced results were found as well. Absenteeism severity levels of 10–15% may be associated more with qualitative changes in family functioning. These data may support a Tier 2-Tier 3 distinction in this regard and may indicate the need for specific family-based intervention goals at higher levels of absenteeism severity

Internalizing Symptoms as Predictors of School Absenteeism Severity at Multiple Levels: Ensemble and Classification and Regression Tree Analysis

School attendance problems are highly prevalent worldwide, leading researchers to investigate many different risk factors for this population. Of considerable controversy is how internalizing behavior problems might help to distinguish different types of youth with school attendance problems. In addition, efforts are ongoing to identify the point at which children and adolescents move from appropriate school attendance to problematic school absenteeism. The present study utilized ensemble and classification and regression tree analysis to identify potential internalizing behavior risk factors among youth at different levels of school absenteeism severity (i.e., 1+%, 3+%, 5+%, 10+%). Higher levels of absenteeism were also examined on an exploratory basis. Participants included 160 youth aged 6–19 years (M = 13.7; SD = 2.9) and their families from an outpatient therapy clinic (39.4%) and community (60.6%) setting, the latter from a family court and truancy diversion program cohort. One particular item relating to lack of enjoyment was most predictive of absenteeism severity at different levels, though not among the highest levels. Other internalizing items were also predictive of various levels of absenteeism severity, but only in a negatively endorsed fashion. Internalizing symptoms of worry and fatigue tended to be endorsed higher across less severe and more severe absenteeism severity levels. A general expectation that predictors would tend to be more homogeneous at higher than lower levels of absenteeism severity was not generally supported. The results help confirm the difficulty of conceptualizing this population based on forms of behavior but may support the need for early warning sign screening for youth at risk for school attendance problems

Statistics of the first passage time of Brownian motion conditioned by maximum value or area

We derive the moments of the first passage time for Brownian motion conditioned by either the maximum value or the area swept out by the motion. These quantities are the natural counterparts to the moments of the maximum value and area of Brownian excursions of fixed duration, which we also derive for completeness within the same mathematical framework. Various applications are indicated.Comment: 29 pages, 4 figures include

The first-passage area for drifted Brownian motion and the moments of the Airy distribution

An exact expression for the distribution of the area swept out by a drifted Brownian motion till its first-passage time is derived. A study of the asymptotic behaviour confirms earlier conjectures and clarifies their range of validity. The analysis also leads to a simple closed-form solution for the moments of the Airy distribution.Comment: 13 page

Long- and short-time asymptotics of the first-passage time of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck and other mean-reverting processes

The first-passage problem of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process to a boundary is a long-standing problem with no known closed-form solution except in specific cases. Taking this as a starting-point, and extending to a general mean-reverting process, we investigate the long- and short-time asymptotics using a combination of Hopf-Cole and Laplace transform techniques. As a result we are able to give a single formula that is correct in both limits, as well as being exact in certain special cases. We demonstrate the results using a variety of other models

House Prices and Birth Rates: The Impact of the Real Estate Market on the Decision to Have a Baby

This project investigates how changes in Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA)- level housing prices affect household fertility decisions. Recognizing that housing is a major cost associated with child rearing, and assuming that children are normal goods, we hypothesize that an increase in real estate prices will have a negative price effect on current period fertility. This applies to both potential first-time homeowners and current homeowners who might upgrade to a bigger house with the addition of a child. On the other hand, for current homeowners, an increase in MSA-level house prices will increase home equity, leading to a positive effect on birth rates. Controlling for MSA fixed effects, trends, and time-varying conditions, our analysis finds that indeed, short-term increases in house prices lead to a decline in births among non-owners and a net increase among owners. Our estimates suggest that a $10,000 increase in house prices leads to a 2.1 percent increase in births among home owners, and a 0.4 percent decrease among non-owners. At the mean U.S. home ownership rate, our estimates imply that the net effect of a$10,000 increase in house prices is a 0.8 percent increase in births. Given underlying differences in home ownership rates, the predicted net effect of house price changes varies across demographic groups. Our paper provides evidence that homeowners use some of their increased housing wealth, coming from increases in local area house prices, to fund their childbearing goals. In addition, we find that changes in house prices exert a larger effect on current period birth rates than do changes in unemployment rates.

Analytical approximation to the multidimensional Fokker--Planck equation with steady state

The Fokker--Planck equation is a key ingredient of many models in physics, and related subjects, and arises in a diverse array of settings. Analytical solutions are limited to special cases, and resorting to numerical simulation is often the only route available; in high dimensions, or for parametric studies, this can become unwieldy. Using asymptotic techniques, that draw upon the known Ornstein--Uhlenbeck (OU) case, we consider a mean-reverting system and obtain its representation as a product of terms, representing short-term, long-term, and medium-term behaviour. A further reduction yields a simple explicit formula, both intuitive in terms of its physical origin and fast to evaluate. We illustrate a breadth of cases, some of which are `far' from the OU model, such as double-well potentials, and even then, perhaps surprisingly, the approximation still gives very good results when compared with numerical simulations. Both one- and two-dimensional examples are considered.Comment: Updated version as publishe