Options analysis model for water demand management

To cope with the needs of increasing urban populations amidst negative impacts of climate change will require mainstreaming water demand management (WDM) in urban water management strategies for the city of the future. There are a variety of options for WDM: urban water managers, engineers and planners need to make correct choices of the most viable options that fit within the socio-cultural, political, economic and environmental context. Ideally, these choices take into consideration the vision of the key city stakeholders and identified scenarios over the longer-term period. This paper describes a simple model developed as one of the outputs of the WDM research under the EU-sponsored SWITCH project, to be used as a decision support tool by urban engineers, planners and managers, with no skills in linear programming. The model uses a VENSIM modelling shell that is freely available on the internet. Application of this tool will make it easier to mainstream WDM options in strategic planning processes for the city of the future

Towards a sector-wide framework for capacity development: the 'training for real' project for Uganda

The human resources are the most important resources for delivering Millennium Development Goals. This fact was recognised by policy makers in the Uganda water and sanitation sector, who, with the support of their development partners commissioned the ‘Training For Real’ (TFR) action research project. The TFR project aimed at motivating human resource development managers in the sector and training providers to be responsive to the demands of employers and make professional development of water and sanitation sector staff more relevant. The activities of the TFR project comprised of setting up a sector HRD thematic group and enhancing their professional capacities; research into current practices of capacity development; survey of perceived impact of past training activities; organising forums that brought together key stakeholders in the sector with academics in Higher Education Institutions (HEIs); piloting innovative methods of delivering capacity development; and support stakeholder institutions in information and knowledge management. These activities have paved way for a sector-wide framework for human resource development and capacity building, and this fits well with the trend existing in the Uganda water/sanitation sector of adopting Sector Wide Approaches (SWAps) in management of the programmes

Towards sustainable urban water services in developing countries: Tariffs based on willingness-to-pay studies

Water supply and sanitation (WASH) service providers in most towns of developing countries, such as Godey Town in Ethiopia, the case study reported in this paper, deliver less than basic services. The costs for meeting the more ambitious WASH targets of the Sustainable Development Goals will be much higher than what has previously been invested in the sector. This study showed that a tariff structure designed using affordability and willingness-to-pay data would provide higher revenues than one solely based on estimated customers’ affordability, or Ethiopian government’s tariff guidelines. As in previous studies in Ethiopia, this study highlights government’s low willingness-to-charge amidst a high customers’ willingness-to-pay. Yet, there is need to increase water tariffs in developing countries, hence, moving towards financial sustainability and supplementing the other two Ts - taxes and transfers. Based on accurate and updated socio-economic data, the tariff can also be optimised to fulfil the social equity objective

A predictive algorithm for identifying children with sickle cell anemia among children admitted to hospital with severe anemia in Africa

Sickle cell anemia (SCA) is common in sub-Saharan Africa where approximately 1% of births are affected. Severe anemia is a common cause for hospital admission within the region yet few studies have investigated the contribution made by SCA. The Transfusion and Treatment of severe anemia in African Children Trial (ISRCTN84086586) investigated various treatment strategies in 3983 children admitted with severe anemia (hemoglobin < 6.0 g/dl) based on two severity strata to four hospitals in Africa (three Uganda and one Malawi). Children with known-SCA were excluded from the uncomplicated stratum and capped at 25% in the complicated stratum. All participants were genotyped for SCA at trial completion. SCA was rare in Malawi (six patients overall), so here we focus on the participants recruited in Uganda. We present baseline characteristics by SCA status and propose an algorithm for identifying children with unknown-SCA. Overall, 430 (12%) and 608 (17%) of the 3483 Ugandan participants had known- or unknown-SCA, respectively. Children with SCA were less likely to be malaria-positive and more likely to have an affected sibling, have gross splenomegaly, or to have received a previous blood transfusion. Most outcomes, including mortality and readmission, were better in children with either known or unknown-SCA than non-SCA children. A simple algorithm based on seven admission criteria detected 73% of all children with unknown-SCA with a number needed to test to identify one new SCA case of only two. Our proposed algorithm offers an efficient and cost-effective approach to identifying children with unknown-SCA among all children admitted with severe anemia to African hospitals where screening is not widely available

Transfusion Volume for Children with Severe Anemia in Africa

Background Severe anemia (hemoglobin level, 37.5°C) at screening (P=0.001 after Sidak correction). Among the 1943 children (60.8%) without fever, mortality was lower with a transfusion volume of 30 ml per kilogram than with a volume of 20 ml per kilogram (hazard ratio, 0.43; 95% CI, 0.27 to 0.69). Among the 1253 children (39.2%) with fever, mortality was higher with 30 ml per kilogram than with 20 ml per kilogram (hazard ratio, 1.91; 95% CI, 1.04 to 3.49). There was no evidence of differences between the randomized groups in readmissions, serious adverse events, or hemoglobin recovery at 180 days. Conclusions Overall mortality did not differ between the two transfusion strategies. (Funded by the Medical Research Council and Department for International Development, United Kingdom; TRACT Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN84086586. opens in new tab.

Co-trimoxazole or multivitamin multimineral supplement for post-discharge outcomes after severe anaemia in African children: a randomised controlled trial

Background Severe anaemia is a leading cause of paediatric admission to hospital in Africa; post-discharge outcomes remain poor, with high 6-month mortality (8%) and re-admission (17%). We aimed to investigate post-discharge interventions that might improve outcomes. Methods Within the two-stratum, open-label, multicentre, factorial randomised TRACT trial, children aged 2 months to 12 years with severe anaemia, defined as haemoglobin of less than 6 g/dL, at admission to hospital (three in Uganda, one in Malawi) were randomly assigned, using sequentially numbered envelopes linked to a second nonsequentially numbered set of allocations stratified by centre and severity, to enhanced nutritional supplementation with iron and folate-containing multivitamin multimineral supplements versus iron and folate alone at treatment doses (usual care), and to co-trimoxazole versus no co-trimoxazole. All interventions were administered orally and were given for 3 months after discharge from hospital. Separately reported randomisations investigated transfusion management. The primary outcome was 180-day mortality. All analyses were done in the intention-to-treat population; follow-up was 180 days. This trial is registered with the International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial registry, ISRCTN84086586, and follow-up is complete. Findings From Sept 17, 2014, to May 15, 2017, 3983 eligible children were randomly assigned to treatment, and followed up for 180 days. 164 (4%) were lost to follow-up. 1901 (95%) of 1997 assigned multivitamin multimineral supplement, 1911 (96%) of 1986 assigned iron and folate, and 1922 (96%) of 1994 assigned co-trimoxazole started treatment. By day 180, 166 (8%) children in the multivitamin multimineral supplement group versus 169 (9%) children in the iron and folate group had died (hazard ratio [HR] 0·97, 95% CI 0·79–1·21; p=0·81) and 172 (9%) who received co-trimoxazole versus 163 (8%) who did not receive co-trimoxazole had died (HR 1·07, 95% CI 0·86–1·32; p=0·56). We found no evidence of interactions between these randomisations or with transfusion randomisations (p>0·2). By day 180, 489 (24%) children in the multivitamin multimineral supplement group versus 509 (26%) children in the iron and folate group (HR 0·95, 95% CI 0·84–1·07; p=0·40), and 500 (25%) children in the co-trimoxazole group versus 498 (25%) children in the no co-trimoxazole group (1·01, 0·89–1·15; p=0·85) had had one or more serious adverse events. Most serious adverse events were re-admissions, occurring in 692 (17%) children (175 [4%] with at least two re-admissions). Interpretation Neither enhanced supplementation with multivitamin multimineral supplement versus iron and folate treatment or co-trimoxazole prophylaxis improved 6-month survival. High rates of hospital re-admission suggest that novel interventions are urgently required for severe anaemia, given the burden it places on overstretched health services in Africa

Incidence and predictors of hospital readmission in children presenting with severe anaemia in Uganda and Malawi: a secondary analysis of TRACT trial data

Background: Severe anaemia (haemoglobin < 6 g/dL) is a leading cause of recurrent hospitalisation in African children. We investigated predictors of readmission in children hospitalised with severe anaemia in the TRACT trial (ISRCTN84086586) in order to identify potential future interventions. Methods: Secondary analyses of the trial examined 3894 children from Uganda and Malawi surviving a hospital episode of severe anaemia. Predictors of all-cause readmission within 180 days of discharge were identified using multivariable regression with death as a competing risk. Groups of children with similar characteristics were identified using hierarchical clustering. Results: Of the 3894 survivors 682 (18%) were readmitted; 403 (10%) had ≥2 re-admissions over 180 days. Three main causes of readmission were identified: severe anaemia (n = 456), malaria (n = 252) and haemoglobinuria/dark urine syndrome (n = 165). Overall, factors increasing risk of readmission included HIV-infection (hazard ratio 2.48 (95% CI 1.63–3.78), p < 0.001); ≥2 hospital admissions in the preceding 12 months (1.44(1.19–1.74), p < 0.001); history of transfusion (1.48(1.13–1.93), p = 0.005); and missing ≥1 trial medication dose (proxy for care quality) (1.43 (1.21–1.69), p < 0.001). Children with uncomplicated severe anaemia (Hb 4-6 g/dL and no severity features), who never received a transfusion (per trial protocol) during the initial admission had a substantially lower risk of readmission (0.67(0.47–0.96), p = 0.04). Malaria (among children with no prior history of transfusion) (0.60(0.47–0.76), p < 0.001); younger-age (1.07 (1.03–1.10) per 1 year younger, p < 0.001) and known sickle cell disease (0.62(0.46–0.82), p = 0.001) also decreased risk of readmission. For anaemia re-admissions, gross splenomegaly and enlarged spleen increased risk by 1.73(1.23–2.44) and 1.46(1.18–1.82) respectively compared to no splenomegaly. Clustering identified four groups of children with readmission rates from 14 to 20%. The cluster with the highest readmission rate was characterised by very low haemoglobin (mean 3.6 g/dL). Sickle Cell Disease (SCD) predominated in two clusters associated with chronic repeated admissions or severe, acute presentations in largely undiagnosed SCD. The final cluster had high rates of malaria (78%), severity signs and very low platelet count, consistent with acute severe malaria. Conclusions: Younger age, HIV infection and history of previous hospital admissions predicted increased risk of readmission. However, no obvious clinical factors for intervention were identified. As missing medication doses was highly predictive, attention to care related factors may be important. Trial registration: ISRCTN ISRCTN84086586. Keywords: Severe anaemia, Readmissio