Using ForeCAT Deflections and Rotations to Constrain the Early Evolution of CMEs

To accurately predict the space weather effects of coronal mass ejection (CME) impacts at Earth one must know if and when a CME will impact Earth, and the CME parameters upon impact. Kay et al. (2015b) presents Forecasting a CME's Altered Trajectory (ForeCAT), a model for CME deflections based on the magnetic forces from the background solar magnetic field. Knowing the deflection and rotation of a CME enables prediction of Earth impacts, and the CME orientation upon impact. We first reconstruct the positions of the 2008 April 10 and the 2012 July 12 CMEs from the observations. The first of these CMEs exhibits significant deflection and rotation (34 degrees deflection and 58 degrees rotation), while the second shows almost no deflection or rotation (<3 degrees each). Using ForeCAT, we explore a range of initial parameters, such as the CME location and size, and find parameters that can successfully reproduce the behavior for each CME. Additionally, since the deflection depends strongly on the behavior of a CME in the low corona (Kay et al. (2015a, 2015b)), we are able to constrain the expansion and propagation of these CMEs in the low corona.Comment: accepted in Ap

Using foreCAT deflections and rotations to constrain the early evolution of CMEs

To accurately predict the space weather effects of the impacts of coronal mass ejection (CME) at Earth one must know if and when a CME will impact Earth and the CME parameters upon impact. In 2015 Kay et al. presented Forecasting a CME's Altered Trajectory (ForeCAT), a model for CME deflections based on the magnetic forces from the background solar magnetic field. Knowing the deflection and rotation of a CME enables prediction of Earth impacts and the orientation of the CME upon impact. We first reconstruct the positions of the 2010 April 8 and the 2012 July 12 CMEs from the observations. The first of these CMEs exhibits significant deflection and rotation (34° deflection and 58° rotation), while the second shows almost no deflection or rotation (<3° each). Using ForeCAT, we explore a range of initial parameters, such as the CME's location and size, and find parameters that can successfully reproduce the behavior for each CME. Additionally, since the deflection depends strongly on the behavior of a CME in the low corona, we are able to constrain the expansion and propagation of these CMEs in the low corona.C.K.'s research was supported by an appointment to the NASA Postdoctoral Program at NASA GSFC, administered by the Universities Space Research Association under contract with NASA. A.V. acknowledges support from JHU/APL. R.C.C. acknowledges the support of NASA contract S-136361-Y to NRL. The SECCHI data are produced by an international consortium of the NRL, LMSAL, and NASA GSFC (USA), RAL and Univ. of Birmingham (UK), MPS (Germany), CSL (Belgium), IOTA and IAS (France). (JHU/APL; S-136361-Y - NASA)Published versio

Keeping your eye on the rail: gaze behaviour of horse riders approaching a jump

The gaze behaviour of riders during their approach to a jump was investigated using a mobile eye tracking device (ASL Mobile Eye). The timing, frequency and duration of fixations on the jump and the percentage of time when their point of gaze (POG) was located elsewhere were assessed. Fixations were identified when the POG remained on the jump for 100 ms or longer. The jumping skill of experienced but non-elite riders (n=10) was assessed by means of a questionnaire. Their gaze behaviour was recorded as they completed a course of three identical jumps five times. The speed and timing of the approach was calculated. Gaze behaviour throughout the overall approach and during the last five strides before take-off was assessed following frame-by-frame analyses. Differences in relation to both round and jump number were found. Significantly longer was spent fixated on the jump during round 2, both during the overall approach and during the last five strides (p , 0.05). Jump 1 was fixated on significantly earlier and more frequently than jump 2 or 3 (p , 0.05). Significantly more errors were made with jump 3 than with jump 1 (p=0.01) but there was no difference in errors made between rounds

Simulation of cell movement through evolving environment: a fictitious domain approach

A numerical method for simulating the movement of unicellular organisms which respond to chemical signals is presented. Cells are modelled as objects of finite size while the extracellular space is described by reaction-diffusion partial differential equations. This modular simulation allows the implementation of different models at the different scales encountered in cell biology and couples them in one single framework. The global computational cost is contained thanks to the use of the fictitious domain method for finite elements, allowing the efficient solve of partial differential equations in moving domains. Finally, a mixed formulation is adopted in order to better monitor the flux of chemicals, specifically at the interface between the cells and the extracellular domain

State Trends in Premiums and Deductibles, 2003-2010: The Need for Action to Address Rising Costs

Examines the rise in employer-based insurance premiums and deductibles and as a percentage of median household income. Projects average family coverage premiums in 2020 if federal health reform is not implemented and historical rates of increase continue

'She's like a daughter to me': insights into care, work and kinship from rural Russia

This article draws on ethnographic research into a state-funded homecare service in rural Russia. The article discusses intersections between care, work and kinship in the relationships between homecare workers and their elderly wards and explores the ways in which references to kinship, as a means of authenticating paid care and explaining its emotional content, reinforce public and private oppositions while doing little to relieve the tensions and conflicts of care work. The discussion brings together detailed empirical insights into local ideologies and practices as a way of generating new theoretical perspectives, which will be of relevance beyond the particular context of study