Sensitivity of idealized mixed-phase stratocumulus to climate perturbations

Large eddy simulations (LES) that explicitly resolve boundary layer (BL) turbulence and clouds are used to explore the sensitivity of idealized Arctic BL clouds to climate perturbations. The LES focus on conditions resembling springtime, when surface heat fluxes over sea ice are weak, and the cloud radiative effect is dominated by the longwave effect. In the LES, the condensed water path increases with BL temperature and free‐tropospheric relative humidity, but it decreases with inversion strength. The dependencies of cloud properties on environmental variables exhibited by the LES can largely be reproduced by a mixed‐layer model. Mixed‐layer model analysis shows that the liquid water path increases with warming because the liquid water gradient increase under warming overcompensates for geometric cloud thinning. This response contrasts with the response of subtropical stratocumulus to warming, whose liquid water path decreases as the clouds thin geometrically under warming. The results suggest that methods used to explain the response of lower‐latitude BL clouds to climate change can also elucidate changes in idealized Arctic BL clouds, although subtropical and Arctic clouds occupy different thermodynamic regimes

Sensitivity of idealized mixed-phase stratocumulus to climate perturbations

Large eddy simulations (LES) that explicitly resolve boundary layer (BL) turbulence and clouds are used to explore the sensitivity of idealized Arctic BL clouds to climate perturbations. The LES focus on conditions resembling springtime, when surface heat fluxes over sea ice are weak, and the cloud radiative effect is dominated by the longwave effect. In the LES, the condensed water path increases with BL temperature and free‐tropospheric relative humidity, but it decreases with inversion strength. The dependencies of cloud properties on environmental variables exhibited by the LES can largely be reproduced by a mixed‐layer model. Mixed‐layer model analysis shows that the liquid water path increases with warming because the liquid water gradient increase under warming overcompensates for geometric cloud thinning. This response contrasts with the response of subtropical stratocumulus to warming, whose liquid water path decreases as the clouds thin geometrically under warming. The results suggest that methods used to explain the response of lower‐latitude BL clouds to climate change can also elucidate changes in idealized Arctic BL clouds, although subtropical and Arctic clouds occupy different thermodynamic regimes

Solar geoengineering may not prevent strong warming from direct effects of CO₂ on stratocumulus cloud cover

Discussions of countering global warming with solar geoengineering assume that warming owing to rising greenhouse-gas concentrations can be compensated by artificially reducing the amount of sunlight Earth absorbs. However, solar geoengineering may not be fail-safe to prevent global warming because CO₂ can directly affect cloud cover: It reduces cloud cover by modulating the longwave radiative cooling within the atmosphere. This effect is not mitigated by solar geoengineering. Here, we use idealized high-resolution simulations of clouds to show that, even under a sustained solar geoengineering scenario with initially only modest warming, subtropical stratocumulus clouds gradually thin and may eventually break up into scattered cumulus clouds, at concentrations exceeding 1,700 parts per million (ppm). Because stratocumulus clouds cover large swaths of subtropical oceans and cool Earth by reflecting incident sunlight, their loss would trigger strong (about 5 K) global warming. Thus, the results highlight that, at least in this extreme and idealized scenario, solar geoengineering may not suffice to counter greenhouse-gas-driven global warming

Does participation in cardiac rehabilitation affect health outcomes and health care utilization and costs?

Exercise based cardiac rehabilitation (CR) programs have been shown to be efficacious in the reduction of recurrent cardiovascular events and increased physical and psychological function. However, in North America only about 10-40% of eligible CVD patients are referred to CR. One reason for poor CR referral may be a lack of information on the costs and health care utilization associated with CR. Thus, the purpose of this project was to explore differences in health care utilization and costs among patients who attended and did not attend cardiac rehabilitation

Numerics and subgrid-scale modeling in large eddy simulations of stratocumulus clouds

Stratocumulus clouds are the most common type of boundary layer cloud; their radiative effects strongly modulate climate. Large eddy simulations (LES) of stratocumulus clouds often struggle to maintain fidelity to observations because of the sharp gradients occurring at the entrainment interfacial layer at the cloud top. The challenge posed to LES by stratocumulus clouds is evident in the wide range of solutions found in the LES intercomparison based on the DYCOMS-II field campaign, where simulated liquid water paths for identical initial and boundary conditions varied by a factor of nearly 12. Here we revisit the DYCOMS-II RF01 case and show that the wide range of previous LES results can be realized in a single LES code by varying only the numerical treatment of the equations of motion and the nature of subgrid-scale (SGS) closures. The simulations that maintain the greatest fidelity to DYCOMS-II observations are identified. The results show that using weighted essentially non-oscillatory (WENO) numerics for all resolved advective terms and no explicit SGS closure consistently produces the highest-fidelity simulations. This suggests that the numerical dissipation inherent in WENO schemes functions as a high-quality, implicit SGS closure for this stratocumulus case. Conversely, using oscillatory centered difference numerical schemes for momentum advection, WENO numerics for scalars, and explicitly modeled SGS fluxes consistently produces the lowest-fidelity simulations. We attribute this to the production of anomalously large SGS fluxes near the cloud tops through the interaction of numerical error in the momentum field with the scalar SGS model

An Extended Eddy-Diffusivity Mass-Flux Scheme for Unified Representation of Subgrid-Scale Turbulence and Convection

Large-scale weather forecasting and climate models are beginning to reach horizontal resolutions of kilometers, at which common assumptions made in existing parameterization schemes of subgrid-scale turbulence and convection—such as that they adjust instantaneously to changes in resolved-scale dynamics—cease to be justifiable. Additionally, the common practice of representing boundary-layer turbulence, shallow convection, and deep convection by discontinuously different parameterizations schemes, each with its own set of parameters, has contributed to the proliferation of adjustable parameters in large-scale models. Here we lay the theoretical foundations for an extended eddy-diffusivity mass flux (EDMF) scheme that has explicit time-dependence and memory of subgrid-scale variables and is designed to represent all subgrid-scale turbulence and convection, from boundary layer dynamics to deep convection, in a unified manner. Coherent up- and downdrafts in the scheme are represented as prognostic plumes that interact with their environment and potentially with each other through entrainment and detrainment. The more isotropic turbulence in their environment is represented through diffusive fluxes, with diffusivities obtained from a turbulence kinetic energy budget that consistently partitions turbulence kinetic energy between plumes and environment. The cross-sectional area of up- and downdrafts satisfies a prognostic continuity equation, which allows the plumes to cover variable and arbitrarily large fractions of a large-scale grid box and to have life cycles governed by their own internal dynamics. Relatively simple preliminary proposals for closure parameters are presented and are shown to lead to a successful simulation of shallow convection, including a time-dependent life cycle

Unified Entrainment and Detrainment Closures for Extended Eddy-Diffusivity Mass-Flux Schemes

We demonstrate that an extended eddy‐diffusivity mass‐flux (EDMF) scheme can be used as a unified parameterization of subgrid‐scale turbulence and convection across a range of dynamical regimes, from dry convective boundary layers, through shallow convection, to deep convection. Central to achieving this unified representation of subgrid‐scale motions are entrainment and detrainment closures. We model entrainment and detrainment rates as a combination of turbulent and dynamical processes. Turbulent entrainment/detrainment is represented as downgradient diffusion between plumes and their environment. Dynamical entrainment/detrainment is proportional to a ratio of a relative buoyancy of a plume and a vertical velocity scale, that is modulated by heuristic nondimensional functions which represent their relative magnitudes and the enhanced detrainment due to evaporation from clouds in drier environment. We first evaluate the closures off‐line against entrainment and detrainment rates diagnosed from large eddy simulations (LESs) in which tracers are used to identify plumes, their turbulent environment, and mass and tracer exchanges between them. The LES are of canonical test cases of a dry convective boundary layer, shallow convection, and deep convection, thus spanning a broad rangeof regimes. We then compare the LES with the full EDMF scheme, including the new closures, in a single‐column model (SCM). The results show good agreement between the SCM and LES in quantities that are key for climate models, including thermodynamic profiles, cloud liquid water profiles, and profiles of higher moments of turbulent statistics. The SCM also captures well the diurnal cycle of convection and the onset of precipitation

Possible climate transitions from breakup of stratocumulus decks under greenhouse warming

Stratocumulus clouds cover 20% of the low-latitude oceans and are especially prevalent in the subtropics. They cool the Earth by shading large portions of its surface from sunlight. However, as their dynamical scales are too small to be resolvable in global climate models, predictions of their response to greenhouse warming have remained uncertain. Here we report how stratocumulus decks respond to greenhouse warming in large-eddy simulations that explicitly resolve cloud dynamics in a representative subtropical region. In the simulations, stratocumulus decks become unstable and break up into scattered clouds when CO_2 levels rise above 1,200 ppm. In addition to the warming from rising CO_2 levels, this instability triggers a surface warming of about 8 K globally and 10 K in the subtropics. Once the stratocumulus decks have broken up, they only re-form once CO_2 concentrations drop substantially below the level at which the instability first occurred. Climate transitions that arise from this instability may have contributed importantly to hothouse climates and abrupt climate changes in the geological past. Such transitions to a much warmer climate may also occur in the future if CO_2 levels continue to rise

Possible climate transitions from breakup of stratocumulus decks under greenhouse warming

Stratocumulus clouds cover 20% of the low-latitude oceans and are especially prevalent in the subtropics. They cool the Earth by shading large portions of its surface from sunlight. However, as their dynamical scales are too small to be resolvable in global climate models, predictions of their response to greenhouse warming have remained uncertain. Here we report how stratocumulus decks respond to greenhouse warming in large-eddy simulations that explicitly resolve cloud dynamics in a representative subtropical region. In the simulations, stratocumulus decks become unstable and break up into scattered clouds when CO_2 levels rise above 1,200 ppm. In addition to the warming from rising CO_2 levels, this instability triggers a surface warming of about 8 K globally and 10 K in the subtropics. Once the stratocumulus decks have broken up, they only re-form once CO_2 concentrations drop substantially below the level at which the instability first occurred. Climate transitions that arise from this instability may have contributed importantly to hothouse climates and abrupt climate changes in the geological past. Such transitions to a much warmer climate may also occur in the future if CO_2 levels continue to rise