What explains changes in full-time and part-time employment in Western Germany? : a new method on an old question

"From 1992 to 2005, part-time employment in Western Germany has grown by 82 percent, whereas full-time employment has shrunk by 14 percent. Behind these general figures there is substantial variation of employment schemes across industries. Beside this, the share of the service industries in gross value added has grown, whereas the importance of manufacturing and construction has decreased considerably. We analyse the extent to which the changes in part-time and full-time employment can be explained by changes in the sectoral composition of the economy or by other factors. Using West German yearly data from 1992-2005, we estimate a regression analogue shiftshare model. It allows us to divide the overall development of employment into the business cycle effect, the sector effect and the employment status effect. Moreover, we control for sectoral gross value added, unit labour costs and working time. As a methodological contribution we extend the shift-share approach into a dynamic panel model. We use a bias-corrected least squares dummy variable (LSDVc) estimator which is appropriate for our data structure. As a second step, we decompose the fixed effects of the LSDVc estimation into parameters for part-time, full-time, and self-employment as well as six sectors. Our results confirm previous deterministic shift-share analyses: Characteristics inherent in full-time or part-time employment dominantly explain changes in employment patterns in Western Germany. The sectoral composition of the economy plays a significant but minor role. The model extensions reveal that much of the status and sector effects in the simple shiftshare analysis can be captured by determinants of labour demand." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))Vollzeitarbeit - Determinanten, Teilzeitarbeit - Determinanten, Wirtschaftsstrukturwandel, Shift-Analyse, Arbeitskräftenachfrage, Westdeutschland, Bundesrepublik Deutschland

Regional development of employment in eastern Germany. An analysis with an econometric analogue to shift-share techniques

This paper examines the development of regional employment in eastern Germany. An approach introduced by Patterson and suggested by Möller/Tassinopoulos is extended for the analyses. This approach uses a generalisation of an econometric analogue of the common shift-share method, which is suggested here as a new "workhorse" for regional analyses. The results obtained with this "shift-share-regression" and with very differentiated data from the employment statistics of eastern Germany show that processes of deconcentration play a role in explaining regional disparities, since inverse localisation and positive urbanisation effects are visible. Such processes can be understood with approaches of "New Economic Geography" (based on Krugman et al.), whereas the general significance of industry-specific effects, which is also becoming clear, can be explained using approaches of structural change, following amongst others Appelbaum & Schettkat. In addition, positive impulses of the qualification structure on regional development are detectable, which can be understood by endogenous growth theory.

Macroeconometric evaluation of active labour market policies in Austria

The analysis of active labour market policies (ALMP) at the macroeconomic level measures net effects on labour market outcomes. These net effects consist of direct treatment effects on participants as well as indirect effects on non-participants and on the economy as a whole, e.g. deadweight, substitution and displacement effects. This paper contributes to the empirical studies of macroeconometric evaluation of ALMP by considering the regional effects on both the matching process and the job-seeker rate. This joint view permits us to draw conclusions on how ALMP achieves the goals set by policy makers. To this end, we use an exclusive data set on Austrian job-seekers in the years 2001 to 2007 and employ contemporaneous GMM and quasi-ML estimators to take into account both the simultaneity of ALMP and spatial interrelations between employment office districts. The empirical results indicate that a large number of participants in job schemes in the non-profit sector, wage subsidies, and apprenticeships cause particularly favourable effects on the regional matching function and the job-seeker rate.

Local Employment Growth in West Germany - A Dynamic Panel Approach

In times of high and persistent unemployment, it has become one of the most important policy tasks in many developed countries to trigger a process of sustained employment growth. An illustrative example is the policy of regional “growth-poles”, which assumes that a local concentration of a specific industry in a limited geographical area will lead to a growth take-off. The theoretical rationale for this type of regional policy can be knowledge spillovers, whose importance for the economic (employment) growth has been emphasised in the endogenous growth literature. Yet, there is a considerable debate about the precise nature of knowledge spillovers. Do the externalities accrue between sectors (Jacobs-externalities), or are they rather intra-sectoral (MAR-externalities)? Apart from the question what local economic structure is conducive for employment growth, an equally important issue concerns the timing of the impact of externalities. Is it the current economic structure that matters for employment growth, or rather the historical economic structure? If the former turns out to be the case, regional policies might become effective immediately. In the latter case the impact of policy might be slower but also longer lasting. In this paper we study the dynamics of local employment growth in West Germany from 1980 to 2001. Using dynamic panel techniques, we analyse the nature and the timing of Jacobs- and Marshall-Arrow-Romer externalities, as well as the impact of general human capital spillovers. Jacobs-externalities are stronger in manufacturing than in services, the opposite is true for MAR-externalities. General human capital spillovers are only found in manufacturing. The influence of all forms of externalities rapidly decays in time, suggesting that they are rather static than dynamic. Additionally, we look at the impact of competition, general agglomeration effects and overly high regional wages on local employment growth.

Cultural Diversity and Local Labour Markets

During the last decade there have been marked changes in the composition of the non-native workforce in the German labour market. In particular there has been a notable increase in the diversity of nationalities of which the foreign workforce is composed. In this paper we investigate the effects of this diversity for native employees. Our analysis is conducted at the local level and uses a panel of 326 Western German regions over the time period 1995-2006. When considering high-skilled foreign workers, we find that both the size of this group and the diversification into different nationalities raise local wages and employment for native employees. For low-skilled foreign workers we find negative size effects. However, these negative effects can be partly offset if the group of low-skilled foreigners is culturally diversified. Our results imply that diversity raises productivity at the local level, but that it is important to distinguish the skill composition of the foreign workforce. These findings remain robust in a variety of robustness checks that take into account omitted variable bias, self-selection of foreigners into particular regions, and spatial autocorrelation.regional labour markets, cultural diversity, immigration, spatial equilibrium

Phillips Curve or wage curve? : evidence from West Germany: 1980-2004

"This paper reconsiders the West German wage curve using the employment statistics of the Federal Employment Services of Germany (Bundesanstalt für Arbeit) over the period 1980-2004. This updates the earlier study by Baltagi and Blien (1998) by 15 years for a more disaggregated 326 regions of West Germany. It is based on a random sample of 417,426 individuals drawn from the population of employees whose establishments are required to report to the social insurance system. We find that the wage equation is highly autoregressive but far from unit root. This means that this wage equation is not a pure Phillips curve, nor a static wage curve, and one should account for wage dynamics. This in turn leads to a smaller but significant unemployment elasticity of -0.02 up to -0.03 rather than the -0.07 reported in the static wage curve results reported by Baltagi and Blien (1998)." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))Arbeitslosenquote, Lohnhöhe, regionaler Arbeitsmarkt, Lohnkurve, IAB-Beschäftigtenstichprobe, Phillipskurve, Westdeutschland, Bundesrepublik Deutschland

A spatial panel approach to the east German wage curve

This study presents results about wage effects of unemployment in eastern Germany. The standard approach to analyse the wage curve takes no account of the spatial relationship among regions. Ignoring this relationship may seriously bias the results. To investigate this, the East German wage curve is estimated including spatial effects using panel data classified into 114 administrative districts over the period 1993-1999. It extends the analysis of Baltagi, Blien and Wolf (2000) in which spatial effects were not taken into account. To control for the possible endogeneity of the unemployment rate, one of the explanatory variables, instrumental variable methods should be used. To control for spatial dependence, this paper adopts the use of matrix exponentials for spatially transforming the error terms. This transformation has the advantage that the Jacobian term equals zero. Two important empirical results appear. If spatial effects are not taken into account, the unemployment elasticity in Eastern Germany is larger than in Western countries. If spatial effects are added, the unemployment elasticity significantly reduces.

Expensive and low-price places to live : regional price levels and the agglomeration wage differential in Western Germany

"Recently, there has been a renewed interest in the agglomeration wage differential. One of the open research question is whether wage differences between large cities and the rural country are due to unobserved differences in regional price levels. In this paper information on regional price levels for western German regions is used to assess this wage differential. Since for many regions price information is not available. Multiple Imputation is used to generate completed data sets. It can be shown that this strategy is more reliable than simply using predictions of regression analysis. The results obtained show that the agglomeration wage differential in Germany is smaller than in the US, and that only a minor part of it can be explained by differences in prices." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))Lohnunterschied, regionale Disparität, Preisniveau, Westdeutschland, Bundesrepublik Deutschland

Do more placement officers lead to lower unemployment? : evidence from Germany

"In this paper we examine the effect of a pilot project of the German Federal Employment Agency, where in 14 German local employment offices the caseload (number of unemployed per caseworker) was significantly reduced. Since the participating local offices were not chosen at random, we have to take into account potential selection bias. Therefore, we rely on a combination of matching and a difference-in-differences estimator. We use two indicators of the offices' success (unemployment rate, growth of the number of SCIII clients). Our results indicate a positive effect of a lower caseload on both outcome variables." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))Arbeitsvermittlung - Erfolgskontrolle, Arbeitsvermittler - Modellversuch, berufliche Reintegration - Quote, Arbeitslosenquote, Arbeitsvermittlerquote