Reconceptualising Atrial Fibrillation Using Renewal Theory: A Novel Approach to the Assessment of Atrial Fibrillation Dynamics

Despite a century of research, the mechanisms of AF remain unresolved. A universal motif within AF research has been unstable re-entry, but this remains poorly characterised, with competing key conceptual paradigms of multiple wavelets and more driving rotors. Understanding the mechanisms of AF is clinically relevant, especially with regard to treatment and ablation of the more persistent forms of AF. Here, the authors outline the surprising but reproducible finding that unstable re-entrant circuits are born and destroyed at quasi-stationary rates, a finding based on a branch of mathematics known as renewal theory. Renewal theory may be a way to potentially unify the multiple wavelet and rotor theories. The renewal rate constants are potentially attractive because they are temporally stable parameters of a defined probability distribution (the exponential distribution) and can be estimated with precision and accuracy due to the principles of renewal theory. In this perspective review, this new representational architecture for AF is explained and placed into context, and the clinical and mechanistic implications are discussed

The appropriateness of coronary investigation in myocardial injury and type 2 myocardial infarction (ACT-2): A randomized trial design

This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. This author accepted manuscript is made available following 12 month embargo from date of publication (October 2018) in accordance with the publisher’s archiving policyBackground: Elevated troponin level findings among patients presenting with suspected acute coronary syndrome (ACS) or another intercurrent illness undeniably identifies patients at increased risk of mortality. Whilst enhancing our capacity to discriminate risk, the use of high-sensitivity troponin assays frequently identifies patients with myocardial injury (i.e. troponin rise without acute signs of myocardial ischemia) or type 2 myocardial infarction (T2MI; oxygen supply-demand imbalance). This leads to the clinically challenging task of distinguishing type 1 myocardial infarction (T1MI; coronary plaque rupture) from myocardial injury and T2MI in the context of concurrent acute illness. Diagnostic discernment in this context is crucial because MI classification has implications for further investigation and care. Early invasive management is of well-established benefit among patients with T1MI. However, the appropriateness of this investigation in the heterogeneous context of T2MI, where there is high competing mortality risk, remains unknown. Although coronary angiography in T2MI is advocated by some, there is insufficient evidence in existing literature to support this opinion as highlighted by current national guidelines.Support for this study was granted from National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia (APP1146512)

Implementation of more sensitive cardiac troponin T assay in a state-wide health service

Aims: Explore the impact of deploying high-sensitivity (hs) cardiac troponin T (cTnT) assay across a state-wide health service. Methods and results: Presentations to emergency departments of six tertiary hospitals between January 2008 and August 2019 were included; standard cTnT assay was superseded by hs-cTnT in June 2011 without changing the reference range (≥30 ng/L reported as elevated), despite cTnT level of 30 ng/L being equivalent to ∼44 ng/L with hs-cTnT. Clinical outcomes were captured using state-wide linked health records. Interrupted time series analyses were used adjusted for seasonality and multiple co-morbidities using propensity score matching allowing for correlation within hospitals. In total, 614,847 presentations had ≥1 troponin measurement. Clinical ordering of troponin decreased throughout the study with no increase in elevated measurements amongst those tested with hs-cTnT. Small but statistically significant changes in index myocardial infarction (MI) diagnosis (−0.36%/year, 95%CI [confidence interval]:–0.48, −0.24,p < 0.001) and invasive coronary angiography (0.12%/year,95%CI:0, 0.24,p = 0.02) were seen, with no impact on death/MI at 30 days or 3-year survival in episodes of care (EOCs) with elevated cTnT after hs-cTnT implementation. Length of stay (LOS) was shorter among those with an elevated hs-cTnT (−4.44 h/year, 95%CI:–5.27, −3.60, p < 0.001). Non-elevated cTnT EOCs demonstrated shorter total LOS and improved 3-year survival (adjusted hazard ratio:0.90, 95%CI:0.83, 0.97,p = 0.008) although death/MI at 30 days was unchanged using hs-cTnT. Conclusion: Widespread implementation of hs-cTnT without altering clinical thresholds reported to clinicians provided significantly shorter LOS without a clinically significant impact on clinical outcomes. A safer cohort with non-elevated cTnT was identified by hs-cTnT compared to the standard cTnT assay.</p

The inspection paradox:An important consideration in the evaluation of rotor lifetimes in cardiac fibrillation

Background and Objective: Renewal theory is a statistical approach to model the formation and destruction of phase singularities (PS), which occur at the pivots of spiral waves. A common issue arising during observation of renewal processes is an inspection paradox, due to oversampling of longer events. The objective of this study was to characterise the effect of a potential inspection paradox on the perception of PS lifetimes in cardiac fibrillation. Methods: A multisystem, multi-modality study was performed, examining computational simulations (Aliev-Panfilov (APV) model, Courtmanche-Nattel model), experimentally acquired optical mapping Atrial and Ventricular Fibrillation (AF/VF) data, and clinically acquired human AF and VF. Distributions of all PS lifetimes across full epochs of AF, VF, or computational simulations, were compared with distributions formed from lifetimes of PS existing at 10,000 simulated commencement timepoints. Results: In all systems, an inspection paradox led towards oversampling of PS with longer lifetimes. In APV computational simulations there was a mean PS lifetime shift of +84.9% (95% CI, ± 0.3%) (p < 0.001 for observed vs overall), in Courtmanche-Nattel simulations of AF +692.9% (95% CI, ±57.7%) (p < 0.001), in optically mapped rat AF +374.6% (95% CI, [Formula: see text] 88.5%) (p = 0.052), in human AF mapped with basket catheters +129.2% (95% CI, ±4.1%) (p < 0.05), human AF-HD grid catheters 150.8% (95% CI, [Formula: see text] 9.0%) (p < 0.001), in optically mapped rat VF +171.3% (95% CI, ±15.6%) (p < 0.001), in human epicardial VF 153.5% (95% CI, ±15.7%) (p < 0.001). Conclusion: Visual inspection of phase movies has the potential to systematically oversample longer lasting PS, due to an inspection paradox. An inspection paradox is minimised by consideration of the overall distribution of PS lifetimes