California's Individual and Small Group Markets on the Eve of Reform

Examines baseline demographics and characteristics of California's individual and small group markets as well as of those who will become eligible for subsidies under the 2010 healthcare reform, including the uninsured

Stochastic Volatility Filtering with Intractable Likelihoods

This paper is concerned with particle filtering for $\alpha$-stable stochastic volatility models. The $\alpha$-stable distribution provides a flexible framework for modeling asymmetry and heavy tails, which is useful when modeling financial returns. An issue with this distributional assumption is the lack of a closed form for the probability density function. To estimate the volatility of financial returns in this setting, we develop a novel auxiliary particle filter. The algorithm we develop can be easily applied to any hidden Markov model for which the likelihood function is intractable or computationally expensive. The approximate target distribution of our auxiliary filter is based on the idea of approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). ABC methods allow for inference on posterior quantities in situations when the likelihood of the underlying model is not available in closed form, but simulating samples from it is possible. The ABC auxiliary particle filter (ABC-APF) that we propose provides not only a good alternative to state estimation in stochastic volatility models, but it also improves on the existing ABC literature. It allows for more flexibility in state estimation while improving on the accuracy through better proposal distributions in cases when the optimal importance density of the filter is unavailable in closed form. We assess the performance of the ABC-APF on a simulated dataset from the $\alpha$-stable stochastic volatility model and compare it to other currently existing ABC filters

Being With Friends and the Potential for Binge Drinking During the First College Semester

In this prospective study, we assess the relationship between being with high school friends during the college transition and binge drinking. Across analyses (n = 489), the presence of high school friends during the college transition was associated with reduced binge drinking at the end of the first college semester among individuals at risk for this behavior because they drank in high school, associated alcohol use with the student role, or engaged in binge drinking at the beginning of the fall term. This is consistent with research linking social integration to behavioral regulation and suggests the presence of high school friends during the college transition serves as a source of social control at a juncture characterized by a reduction in normative constraint. Implications for practitioners seeking to assess new students\u27 risks for binge drinking and to more effectively meet the needs of vulnerable groups are discussed in relation to the study results

Economic Evidence on the Effects of the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act on Indians and Non-Indians

When Congress passed the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act (IGRA) in 1988, some tribal leaders perceived the state compacting provision required for casino-style gaming on tribal lands as an erosion of tribal sovereignty that could undermine their early economic development successes and disrupt a precariously successful federal-tribal relationship with regard to tribal self-determination. In hindsight, however, the substantial growth and myriad positive impacts of the first twenty years of tribal gaming under IGRA reveal the ways that the federal regulatory framework laid out in the law resolved numerous legal dilemmas that had plagued tribal gaming expansion. It is now clear that the predictability provided by successful tribal- state compact negotiations allowed the necessary capital investments to produce a robust tribal government gaming industry across much of Indian Country. Therefore, an analysis of tribal government gaming’s impacts on tribal communities and neighboring localities is best framed in the context of the federal law that continues to shape the industry today

Researcher-Practitioner Partnerships to Impact Sexual Assault and Domestic Violence Policy

Points of view in this document are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official position or policies of the U.S. Department of Justice.The Alaska Department of Public Safety and the UAA Justice Center conducted numerous research projects and published numerous articles on domestic violence, sexual assault, child sexual abuse, and stalking. These research projects were used to develop new multidisciplinary and multifaceted initiatives to combat violence against women in Alaska. This poster describes our researcher-practitioner partnership and its impact on policy and practice.This project was supported by Grant No. 2005-WG-BX-0011 awarded by the National Institute of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, U.S. Department of Justice.Abstract / Building Partenrships / Context / Sample Results / Importance of Data & Research / Using Data to Develop and Define Intitiatives / Dissemination / From Research to Policy and Practice / Enhancing Partnerships: Future Direction

The Erd\H{o}s-Rothschild problem on edge-colourings with forbidden monochromatic cliques

Let $\mathbf{k} := (k_1,\dots,k_s)$ be a sequence of natural numbers. For a graph $G$, let $F(G;\mathbf{k})$ denote the number of colourings of the edges of $G$ with colours $1,\dots,s$ such that, for every $c \in \{1,\dots,s\}$, the edges of colour $c$ contain no clique of order $k_c$. Write $F(n;\mathbf{k})$ to denote the maximum of $F(G;\mathbf{k})$ over all graphs $G$ on $n$ vertices. This problem was first considered by Erd\H{o}s and Rothschild in 1974, but it has been solved only for a very small number of non-trivial cases. We prove that, for every $\mathbf{k}$ and $n$, there is a complete multipartite graph $G$ on $n$ vertices with $F(G;\mathbf{k}) = F(n;\mathbf{k})$. Also, for every $\mathbf{k}$ we construct a finite optimisation problem whose maximum is equal to the limit of $\log_2 F(n;\mathbf{k})/{n\choose 2}$ as $n$ tends to infinity. Our final result is a stability theorem for complete multipartite graphs $G$, describing the asymptotic structure of such $G$ with $F(G;\mathbf{k}) = F(n;\mathbf{k}) \cdot 2^{o(n^2)}$ in terms of solutions to the optimisation problem.Comment: 16 pages, to appear in Math. Proc. Cambridge Phil. So

The M2 slowdown and depository intermediation: implications for monetary policy

An examination of credit flow rechanneling away from depository institutions over the past decade in response to evolving financial markets and regulatory structure, and a discussion of how this trend has complicated monetary policymaking.Money supply ; Monetary policy