Estimating and exploring the proportions of inter- and intrastate cattle shipments in the United States

Mathematical models are key tools for the development of surveillance, preparedness and response plans for the potential events of emerging and introduced foreign animal diseases. Creating these types of plans requires data; when data are incomplete, mathematical models can help fill in missing information, provided they are informed by the data that are available. In the United States, the most complete national-scale data available on cattle shipments are based on Interstate Certificates of Veterinary Inspection, which track the shipment of cattle between states; data on intrastate cattle shipments are lacking. Here we develop four new datasets on intrastate cattle shipments in the U.S., including an expert elicitation survey covering 19 states and territories and three state-level brand inspection data sets. The expert elicitation survey provides estimates on the proportion of shipments that travel interstate over multiple regions of the U.S. These survey data also identify differences in shipment patterns between regions, cattle commodity types, and sectors of the cattle industry. These survey data cover more states than any other source of intrastate data; however, one limitation of these data is the small number of participating experts in many of the states, only seven of the 19 responding states and territories had a group size of three or larger. The brand data sets include origin and destination information for both intra- and interstate shipments. These data, therefore, also provide detailed information on the proportion of interstate shipments in three Western states, including the temporal and geographic variation in shipments. Because the survey and brand data overlap in the Western U.S., they can be compared. We find that in the Western U.S. the expert estimates of the overall proportion of cattle shipments matched the brand data well. However, the experts estimated that there would be larger differences in beef and dairy shipments than the brand data show. This suggests the cattle industries in the West may be sending similar proportions of commodity specific cattle shipments over state lines. We additionally used the expert survey data to explore how differences in the proportion of interstate shipments can change predictions about cattle shipment patterns using the example of model-guided suggestions for targeted surveillance in Texas. Together these four data sets are the most extensive and geographically comprehensive information to date on intrastate cattle shipments. Additionally, our analyses on predicted shipment patterns suggest that assumptions about intrastate shipments could have consequences for targeted surveillance

Estimating and exploring the proportions of inter- and intrastate cattle shipments in the United States

Mathematical models are key tools for the development of surveillance, preparedness and response plans for the potential events of emerging and introduced foreign animal diseases. Creating these types of plans requires data; when data are incomplete, mathematical models can help fill in missing information, provided they are informed by the data that are available. In the United States, the most complete national-scale data available on cattle shipments are based on Interstate Certificates of Veterinary Inspection, which track the shipment of cattle between states; data on intrastate cattle shipments are lacking. Here we develop four new datasets on intrastate cattle shipments in the U.S., including an expert elicitation survey covering 19 states and territories and three state-level brand inspection data sets. The expert elicitation survey provides estimates on the proportion of shipments that travel interstate over multiple regions of the U.S. These survey data also identify differences in shipment patterns between regions, cattle commodity types, and sectors of the cattle industry. These survey data cover more states than any other source of intrastate data; however, one limitation of these data is the small number of participating experts in many of the states, only seven of the 19 responding states and territories had a group size of three or larger. The brand data sets include origin and destination information for both intra- and interstate shipments. These data, therefore, also provide detailed information on the proportion of interstate shipments in three Western states, including the temporal and geographic variation in shipments. Because the survey and brand data overlap in the Western U.S., they can be compared. We find that in the Western U.S. the expert estimates of the overall proportion of cattle shipments matched the brand data well. However, the experts estimated that there would be larger differences in beef and dairy shipments than the brand data show. This suggests the cattle industries in the West may be sending similar proportions of commodity specific cattle shipments over state lines. We additionally used the expert survey data to explore how differences in the proportion of interstate shipments can change predictions about cattle shipment patterns using the example of model-guided suggestions for targeted surveillance in Texas. Together these four data sets are the most extensive and geographically comprehensive information to date on intrastate cattle shipments. Additionally, our analyses on predicted shipment patterns suggest that assumptions about intrastate shipments could have consequences for targeted surveillance

Effect of recipient age on prioritisation for liver transplantation in the UK:a population-based modelling study

BACKGROUND: Following the introduction of an algorithm aiming to maximise life-years gained from liver transplantation in the UK (the transplant benefit score [TBS]), donor livers were redirected from younger to older patients, mortality rate equalised across the age range and short-term waiting list mortality reduced. Understanding age-related prioritisation has been challenging, especially for younger patients and clinicians allocating non-TBS-directed livers. We aimed to assess age-related prioritisation within the TBS algorithm by modelling liver transplantation prioritisation based on data from a UK transplant unit and comparing these data with other regions.METHODS: In this population-based modelling study, serum parameters and age at liver transplantation assessment of patients attending the Scottish Liver Transplant Unit, Edinburgh, UK, between December, 2002, and November, 2023, were combined with representative synthetic data to model TBS survival predictions, which were compared according to age group (25-49 years vs ≥60 years), chronic liver disease severity, and disease cause. Models for end-stage liver disease (UKELD [UK], MELD [Eurotransplant region], and MELD 3.0 [USA]) were used as validated comparators of liver disease severity.FINDINGS: Of 2093 patients with chronic liver disease, 1808 (86%) had complete datasets and liver disease parameters consistent with eligibility for the liver transplant waiting list in the UK (UKELD ≥49). Disease severity as assessed by UKELD, MELD, and MELD 3.0 did not differ by age (median UKELD scores of 56 for patients aged ≥60 years vs 56 for patients aged 25-49 years; MELD scores of 16 vs 16; and MELD 3.0 scores of 18 vs 18). TBS increased with advancing age (R=0·45, p&lt;0·0001). TBS predicted that transplantation in patients aged 60 years or older would provide a two-fold greater net benefit at 5 years than in patients aged 25-49 years (median TBS 1317 [IQR 1116-1436] in older patients vs 706 [411-1095] in younger patients; p&lt;0·0001). Older patients were predicted to have shorter survival without transplantation than younger patients (263 days [IQR 144-473] in older patients vs 861 days [448-1164] in younger patients; p&lt;0·0001) but similar survival after transplantation (1599 days [1563-1628] vs 1573 days [1525-1614]; p&lt;0·0001). Older patients could reach a TBS for which a liver offer was likely below minimum criteria for transplantation (UKELD &lt;49), whereas many younger patients were required to have high-urgent disease (UKELD &gt;60). US and Eurotransplant programmes did not prioritise according to age.INTERPRETATION: The UK liver allocation algorithm prioritises older patients for transplantation by predicting that advancing age increases the benefit from liver transplantation. Restricted follow-up and biases in waiting list data might limit the accuracy of these benefit predictions. Measures beyond overall waiting list mortality are required to fully capture the benefits of liver transplantation.FUNDING: None.</p

Transcutaneous vagus nerve stimulation (t-VNS): A novel effective treatment for temper outbursts in adults with Prader-Willi Syndrome indicated by results from a non-blind study.

Temper outbursts are a severe problem for people with Prader-Willi Syndrome (PWS). Previous reports indicate that vagus nerve stimulation (VNS) may reduce maladaptive behaviour in neurodevelopmental disorders, including PWS. We systematically investigated the effectiveness of transcutaneous VNS (t-VNS) in PWS. Using a non-blind single case repeat measures modified ABA design, with participants as their own controls, t-VNS was evaluated in five individuals with PWS [three males; age 22-41 (M = 26.8)]. After a baseline phase, participants received four-hours of t-VNS daily for 12 months, followed by one month of daily t-VNS for two-hours. The primary outcome measure was the mean number of behavioural outbursts per day. Secondary outcomes included findings from behavioural questionnaires and both qualitative and goal attainment interviews. Four of the five participants who completed the study exhibited a statistically significant reduction in number and severity of temper outbursts after approximately nine months of daily four-hour t-VNS. Subsequent two-hour daily t-VNS was associated with increased outbursts for all participants, two reaching significance. Questionnaire and interview data supported these findings, the latter indicating potential mechanisms of action. No serious safety issues were reported. t-VNS is an effective, novel and safe intervention for chronic temper outbursts in PWS. We propose these changes are mediated through vagal projections and their effects both centrally and on the functioning of the parasympathetic nervous system. These findings challenge our present biopsychosocial understanding of such behaviours suggesting that there is a single major mechanism that is modifiable using t-VNS. This intervention is potentially generalizable across other clinical groups. Future research should address the lack of a sham condition in this study along with the prevalence of high drop out rates, and the potential effects of different stimulation intensities, frequencies and pulse widths

Bibliometric analysis of authorship patterns in publications from a research group at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, 2016-2020

BACKGROUND: Authors from low and middle-income country (LMIC) institutions are under-represented in publications of research based in LMICs. This case study of publications from authors within the Medical Research Council International Statistics and Epidemiology Group (MRC-ISEG), a global health research group affiliated to the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine in the UK, aims to describe patterns in authorship and factors associated with under-representation. METHODS: Papers were included if they were published between January 2016 and December 2020 inclusive, included an author from the MRC-ISEG and described work conducted in a LMIC. Authors' affiliations were classified using World Bank country income classifications into LMIC affiliations only, high-income country (HIC) affiliations only and mixed LMIC/HIC affiliations. Multinomial logistic regression analysis was used to assess associations of author affiliation category with authorship position, and whether patterns varied by journal impact factor quartile and multiple versus single-country studies. RESULTS: A total of 882 papers, including 10 570 authors describing research conducted in 61 LMICs, were included. Compared with authors of HIC-only affiliation, those with LMIC-only affiliation were less likely to be in first authorship position (relative risk ratio (RRR)=0.51, 95% CI 0.44 to 0.60) and mixed HIC/LMIC affiliation authors were more likely (RRR=2.80, 95% CI 2.35 to 3.34). Compared with authors of HIC-only affiliation, those with LMIC-only affiliation were less likely to be in last authorship position (RRR=0.20, 95% CI 0.16 to 0.24) and those with mixed HIC/LMIC affiliations were more likely (RRR=1.95, 95% CI 1.65 to 2.30). The proportion of senior authors with LMIC-only affiliation was lowest for the highest impact journals, and in multicountry versus single-country studies. CONCLUSION: Alongside increasing research capacity within LMICs, HIC institutions should ensure that LMIC-affiliated researchers are properly represented in global research. Academics working in global health should be judged on their involvement in representative collaborative research rather than individual achievements in authorship position

Strategies to optimize the impact of nutritional surveys and epidemiological studies

The development of nutrition and health guidelines and policies requires reliable scientific information. Unfortunately, theoretical considerations and empirical evidence indicate that a large percentage of science-based claims rely on studies that fail to replicate. The session "Strategies to Optimize the Impact of Nutrition Surveys and Epidemiological Studies" focused on the elements of design, interpretation, and communication of nutritional surveys and epidemiological studies to enhance and encourage the production of reliable, objective evidence for use in developing dietary guidance for the public. The speakers called for more transparency of research, raw data, consistent data-staging techniques, and improved data analysis. New approaches to collecting data are urgently needed to increase the credibility and utility of findings from nutrition epidemiological studies. Such studies are critical for furthering our knowledge and understanding of the effects of diet on health

Climate change 2014 : impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability

Current and future climate-related drivers of risk for small islands during the 21st century include sea level rise (SLR), tropical and extratropical cyclones, increasing air and sea surface temperatures, and changing rainfall patterns (high confidence; robust evidence, high agreement). Current impacts associated with these changes confirm findings reported on small islands from the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) and previous IPCC assessments. The future risks associated with these drivers include loss of adaptive capacity and ecosystem services critical to lives and livelihoods in small islands.peer-reviewe

A Model-Based Analysis of GC-Biased Gene Conversion in the Human and Chimpanzee Genomes

GC-biased gene conversion (gBGC) is a recombination-associated process that favors the fixation of G/C alleles over A/T alleles. In mammals, gBGC is hypothesized to contribute to variation in GC content, rapidly evolving sequences, and the fixation of deleterious mutations, but its prevalence and general functional consequences remain poorly understood. gBGC is difficult to incorporate into models of molecular evolution and so far has primarily been studied using summary statistics from genomic comparisons. Here, we introduce a new probabilistic model that captures the joint effects of natural selection and gBGC on nucleotide substitution patterns, while allowing for correlations along the genome in these effects. We implemented our model in a computer program, called phastBias, that can accurately detect gBGC tracts about 1 kilobase or longer in simulated sequence alignments. When applied to real primate genome sequences, phastBias predicts gBGC tracts that cover roughly 0.3% of the human and chimpanzee genomes and account for 1.2% of human-chimpanzee nucleotide differences. These tracts fall in clusters, particularly in subtelomeric regions; they are enriched for recombination hotspots and fast-evolving sequences; and they display an ongoing fixation preference for G and C alleles. They are also significantly enriched for disease-associated polymorphisms, suggesting that they contribute to the fixation of deleterious alleles. The gBGC tracts provide a unique window into historical recombination processes along the human and chimpanzee lineages. They supply additional evidence of long-term conservation of megabase-scale recombination rates accompanied by rapid turnover of hotspots. Together, these findings shed new light on the evolutionary, functional, and disease implications of gBGC. The phastBias program and our predicted tracts are freely available. © 2013 Capra et al