Prospects for Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles in the United States and Japan: A General Equilibrium Analysis

Abstract and PDF report are also available on the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://globalchange.mit.edu/)The plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) may offer a potential near term, low carbon alternative to today's gasoline- and diesel-powered vehicles. A representative vehicle technology that runs on electricity in addition to conventional fuels was introduced into the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model as a perfect substitute for internal combustion engine (ICE-only) vehicles in two likely early-adopting markets, the United States and Japan. We investigate the effect of relative vehicle cost and all-electric range on the timing of PHEV market entry in the presence and absence of an advanced cellulosic biofuels technology and a strong (450ppm) economy-wide carbon constraint. Vehicle cost could be a significant barrier to PHEV entry unless fairly aggressive goals for reducing battery costs are met. If a low cost vehicle is available we find that the PHEV has the potential to reduce CO2 emissions, refined oil demand, and under a carbon policy the required CO2 price in both the United States and Japan. The emissions reduction potential of PHEV adoption depends on the carbon intensity of electric power generation and the size of the vehicle fleet. Thus, the technology is much more effective in reducing CO2 emissions if adoption occurs under an economy-wide cap and trade system that also encourages low-carbon electricity generation.BP Conversion Research Project and the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change through a consortium of industrial sponsors and Federal grants

Four-states phase diagram of proteins

A four states phase diagram for protein folding as a function of temperature and solvent quality is derived from an improved 2-d lattice model taking into account the temperature dependence of the hydrophobic effect. The phase diagram exhibits native, globule and two coil-type regions. In agreement with experiment, the model reproduces the phase transitions indicative of both warm and cold denaturations. Finally, it predicts transitions between the two coil states and a critical point.Comment: 7 pages, 5 figures. Accepted for publication in Europhysics Letter

Allosteric Communication in Myosin V: From Small Conformational Changes to Large Directed Movements

The rigor to post-rigor transition in myosin, a consequence of ATP binding, plays an essential role in the Lymn–Taylor functional cycle because it results in the dissociation of the actomyosin complex after the powerstroke. On the basis of the X-ray structures of myosin V, we have developed a new normal mode superposition model for the transition path between the two states. Rigid-body motions of the various subdomains and specific residues at the subdomain interfaces are key elements in the transition. The allosteric communication between the nucleotide binding site and the U50/L50 cleft is shown to result from local changes due to ATP binding, which induce large amplitude motions that are encoded in the structure of the protein. The triggering event is the change in the interaction of switch I and the P-loop, which is stabilized by ATP binding. The motion of switch I, which is a relatively rigid element of the U50 subdomain, leads directly to a partial opening of the U50/L50 cleft; the latter is expected to weaken the binding of myosin to actin. The calculated transition path demonstrates the nature of the subdomain coupling and offers an explanation for the mutual exclusion of ATP and actin binding. The mechanism of the uncoupling of the converter from the motor head, an essential part of the transition, is elucidated. The origin of the partial untwisting of the central β-sheet in the rigor to post-rigor transition is described

Molecular dynamics of folding of secondary structures in Go-type models of proteins

We consider six different secondary structures of proteins and construct two types of Go-type off-lattice models: with the steric constraints and without. The basic aminoacid-aminoacid potential is Lennard Jones for the native contacts and a soft repulsion for the non-native contacts. The interactions are chosen to make the target secondary structure be the native state of the system. We provide a thorough equilibrium and kinetic characterization of the sequences through the molecular dynamics simulations with the Langevin noise. Models with the steric constraints are found to be better folders and to be more stable, especially in the case of the $\beta$-structures. Phononic spectra for vibrations around the native states have low frequency gaps that correlate with the thermodynamic stability. Folding of the secondary structures proceeds through a well defined sequence of events. For instance, $\alpha$-helices fold from the ends first. The closer to the native state, the faster establishment of the contacts. Increasing the system size deteriorates the folding characteristics. We study the folding times as a function of viscous friction and find a regime of moderate friction with the linear dependence. We also consider folding when one end of a structure is pinned which imitates instantaneous conditions when a protein is being synthesized. We find that, under such circumstances, folding of helices is faster and of the $\beta$-sequences slower.Comment: REVTeX, 14 pages, EPS figures included, JCP in pres

Equity and Emissions Trading in China

China has embarked on an ambitious pathway for establishing a national carbon market in the next five to ten years. In this study, we analyze the distributional aspects of a Chinese emissions-trading scheme from ethical, economic, and stated-preference perspectives. We focus on the role of emissions permit allocation and first show how specific equity principles can be incorporated into the design of potential allocation schemes. We then assess the economic and distributional impacts of those allocation schemes using a computable general equilibrium model with regional detail for the Chinese economy. Finally, we conduct a survey among Chinese climate-policy experts on the basis of the simulated model impacts. The survey participants indicate a relative preference for allocation schemes that put less emissions-reduction burden on the western provinces, a medium burden on the central provinces, and a high burden on the eastern provinces. Most participants show strong support for allocating emissions permits based on consumption-based emissions responsibilities

Consumption-Based Adjustment of China's Emissions-Intensity Targets: An Analysis of its Potential Economic Effects

China’s Twelfth Five-Year Plan (2011–2015) aims to achieve a national carbon intensity reduction of 17% through differentiated targets at the provincial level. Allocating the national target among China’s provinces is complicated by the fact that more than half of China’s national carbon emissions are embodied in interprovincial trade, with the relatively developed eastern provinces relying on the central and western provinces for energy-intensive imports. This study develops a consistent methodology to adjust regional emissions-intensity targets for trade-related emissions transfers and assesses its economic effects on China's provinces using a regional computable general equilibrium model of the Chinese economy. This study finds that in 2007 China's eastern provinces outsource 14% of their territorial emissions to the central and western provinces. Adjusting the provincial targets for those emissions transfers increases the reduction burden for the eastern provinces by 60%, while alleviating the burden for the central and western provinces by 50% each. The CGE analysis indicates that this adjustment could double China's national welfare loss compared to the homogenous and politics-based distribution of reduction targets. A shared-responsibility approach that balances production-based and consumption-based emissions responsibilities is found to alleviate those unbalancing effects and lead to a more equal distribution of economic burden among China's provinces.The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support for this work provided by the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change through a consortium of industrial sponsors and Federal grants, and by the AXA Research Fund which is supporting Marco Springmann's doctoral research. We further thank Eni S.p.A., ICF International, Shell International Limited, and the French Development Agency (AFD), founding sponsors of the China Energy and Climate Project. We also grateful for support provided by the Social Science Key Research Program from National Social Science Foundation, China of Grant No. 09&ZD029 and by Rio Tinto China. We would further like to thank John Reilly, Sergey Paltsev, Henry Jacoby and Audrey Resutek for helpful comments, discussion and edits

Cherenkov radiation by particles traversing the background radiatio n

High energy particles traversing the Universe through the cosmic microwave backgroung radiation can, in principle, emit Cherenkov radiation. It is shown that the energy threshold for this radiation is extremely high and its intensity would be too low due to the low density of the "relic photons gas" and very weak interaction of two photons.Comment: 6 pages, LATEX, no Figs.; to be published in JETP Lett. 75 (N4) (2002