Micro data on nominal rigidity, inflation persistence and optimal monetary policy

The popular Calvo model with indexation (Christiano, Eichenbaum and Evans, 2005) and sticky information (Mankiw and Reis, 2002) model have guided much of the monetary policy discussion. The strength of these approaches is that they can explain the persistence of inflation. However, both of these theories are inconsistent with the micro data on prices. In this paper, I evaluate the consequences of implementing policies that are optimal from the perspective of models that overlook the micro-data. To do so, I employ a Generalized Taylor Economy (GTE) (Dixon and Kara, 2007). While there is no material difference between the GTE and its popular alternatives in terms of inflation persistence, a difference arises when it comes to the micro-data: the GTE is consistent with the micro-data. The findings reported in the paper suggest that policy conclusions are significantly affected by whether persistence arises in a manner consistent with the micro-data and that policies that are optimal from the perspective of the models that are inconsistent with the microdata can lead to large welfare losses in the GTEInflation persistence, DSGE models, Optimal Monetary Policy

Optimal monetary policy in the generalized Taylor economy

In this paper we use the Generalized Taylor Economy (GTE) framework in which there are many sectors with overlapping contracts of different lengths to analyze the design of monetary policy. We derive a utility based objective function of a central bank for this economy and use it to evaluate the performance of alternative simple rules. We find that a simple rule that targets an index that gives more weight to the sectors which have longer contracts and are more important in the aggregate index yields a welfare outcome nearly identical to the optimal policy. However, we find that potential gains in targeting sector specific inflation rates rather than the aggregate inflation rate is very sensitive to the shape of the distribution. We show that except for the cases where prices/wages are reoptimized very frequently, the performance of the sectoral rule can be closely approximated by a simple rule that targets aggregate inflation. JEL Classification: E32, E52, E58inflation targeting, Optimal Monetary Policy

Input-output connections between sectors and optimal monetary policy

This paper considers the monetary policy implications of a model that features input-output connections between stages of production, so that a distinction between CPI inflation and PPI inflation arises. More specifically, this paper addresses the policy conclusion by K. Huang and Z. Liu [2005, "Inflation targeting: What inflation rate to target", Journal of Monetary Economics 52], which states that central banks should use an optimal inflation index that gives substantial weight to stabilising both CPI and PPI. This paper argues that these authors' findings rely on the assumption that producer prices are as sticky as consumer prices and it also shows that, once empirically relevant frequencies of price adjustment are used to calibrate the model, CPI inflation receives substantial weight in the optimal inflation index. Moreover, this rule is remarkably robust to uncertainty regarding the model parameters, whereas the policy rule proposed by Huang and Liu can result in heavy welfare lossesInflation targeting, Optimal Monetary Policy

Reset Price Inflation and Monetary Policy

Bils, Klenow and Malin (2009) recently constructed an empirical measure of reset price in.ation (i.e. the rate of change of all "desired" prices) for the US economy, by using the micro-data underpinning the CPI and evaluated whether the existing pricing models can explain both the observed reset in.ation and aggregate in.ation. They found that time-dependent models and state-dependent models are both in- adequate in this respect. This paper presents a model that tracks the data on reset in.ation perfectly well. A main di¤erence between the model in this paper and those in Bils et al. (2009) is that the model in this paper properly accounts for the heterogeneity in contract lengths we observe in the data.DSGE models, reset inflation

Taking Multi-Sector Dynamic General Equilibrium Models to the Data

We estimate and compare two models, the Generalized Taylor Economy (GTE) and the Multiple Calvo model (MC); that have been built to model the distributions of contract lengths observed in the data. We compare the performances of these models to those of the standard models such as the Calvo and its popular variant, using the ad hoc device of indexation. The estimations are made with Bayesian techniques for the US data. The results indicate that the data strongly favour the GTE.DSGE models, Calvo, Taylor, price-setting.

How to Compare Taylor and Calvo Contracts: A Comment on Michael Kiley

In a recent paper, Michael Kiley argued that the Calvo model of price adjustment is both quantitatively and qualitatively different from the Taylor model. What we show is that Kiley (along with most other people) are choosing the wrong parameterization to compare the two models. In effect they are comparing the average age of Calvo contracts with the completed length of Taylor contracts. When we compare the average age of Taylor contracts with the average of Calvo, the differences become much smaller and easier to understand. We also show that autocorrelation of output can be larger in a Taylor economy than in the age-equivalent Calvo economy.Calvo; Taylor; contract length

Understanding inflation persistence: a comparison of different models

This paper adopts the Impulse-Response methodology to understand inflation persistence. It has often been argued that existing models of pricing fail to explain the persistence that we observe. We adopt a common general framework which allows for an explicit modelling of the distribution of contract lengths and for different types of price setting. In particular, we find that allowing for a distribution of contract lengths can yield a more plausible explanation of inflation persistence than indexation. JEL Classification: E17, E3DGE models, inflation, Persistence, price-setting

Persistence and nominal inertia in a generalized Taylor economy: how longer contracts dominate shorter contracts

In this paper we develop the Generalized Taylor Economy (GTE) in which there are many sectors with overlapping contracts of different lengths. In economies with the same average contract length, monetary shocks will be more persistent when longer contracts are present. We are able to solve the puzzle of why Calvo contracts appear to be more persistent than simple Taylor contracts: it arises because of the distribution of contract lengths. When we choose a GTE with the same distribution of completed contract lengths as the Calvo, the economies behave in a similar manner. JEL Classification: E50, E24, E32, E52Calvo, Persistence, Taylor contract

Persistence and Nominal Inertia in a Generalized Taylor Economy: How Longer Contracts Dominate Shorter Contracts

n this paper we develop the Generalize Taylor Economy (GTE) in which there are many sectors with overlapping contracts of different lengths. We are able to show that even in economies with the same average contract length, monetary shocks will be more persistent when there are longer contracts. In particular we are able to solve the puzzle of why Calvo contracts appear to be more persistent than simple Taylor contracts: it is because the standard calibration of Calvo contracts is not correctPersistence, Taylor contract, Calvo