The Democratic Republic of Congo armed conflict (1998 – 2004): assessing excess mortality based on factual and counter-factual projection scenarios

To document the scale and scope of the 1998–2004 armed conflicts in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), the current study combined four different data sources: the 1984 DRC Population Census, the 1995 and 2001 DRC Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys and the 2007 DRC Demographic and Health Survey, to reconstruct missing demographic estimates and assess the level of excess mortality associated with the conflict, going from 1998 to 2007. Findings from this study do not corroborate previous estimates on the same armed conflict and for the same period: these range from excess mortality of 5.4 million population according to Coghlan et al. (2009), to 0.2 million according to Lambert and Lohlé-Tart (2008). The cohort component projection method as used in this study is a cost-effective approach as it allows the analysis of a complex issue, that is excess mortality associated with an armed conflict, with relatively modest resources. This study highlights that the choice of baseline rates is a key factor in determining the level of excess mortality when data points are scarce. This study produced a range of plausible estimates of excess mortality between 1 and 1.9 million population rather than a single best estimate. The range of excess mortality produced in this study is narrower and less extreme when compared to previous studies on the same conflict. As a further contribution to the debate in this field, the current study advocates producing a range of plausible estimates rather than a single best estimate of excess mortality. This is justified by the uncertainties associated with the scarcity of the data, the statistical modelling and the overall analysis process

The Democratic Republic of Congo conflict (1998-2004): assessing excess deaths based on war and non-war scenarios

To assess excess deaths linked to the 1998-2004 armed conflicts in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the International Rescue Committee conducted a series of five surveys over a seven years period (2000–2007). The IRC estimated excess deaths of 5.4 million for the period 1998-2007. Using an alternative method this study combines four different data sources – 1984 DRC Population Census; 1995 and 2001 Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys and the 2007 Demographic and Health Survey – to assess excess population loss. Indirect techniques are used to derive estimates and cohort component projections conducted for factual and counter-factual scenarios using varying assumptions to derive mortality estimates. This study’s excess population loss is estimated at: 2.4 million for a closed population; 1.7 million when migration data are incorporated. The study finds that the choice of mortality baseline determines the level of excess population loss. Mortality is exceptionally high in the Congo regardless of the method or assumptions used. Ongoing work focusses on refining assumptions and assessing the extent of competing causes of mortality. In the same way, the extent of uncertainty associated with both this study’s methods and components of population change are the object of further analyses

Exploring the value of feminist theory in understanding digital crimes: gender and cybercrimes types

This article draws on the distinction between socioeconomic and psychosocial cybercrime proposed by Lazarus (2019) to investigate whether men and women hold different perceptions of digital crimes across these two dimensions. Informed by the synergy between feminist theory and the Tripartite Cybercrime Framework (TCF), our survey examined respondents’ differential perceptions of socioeconomic cybercrime (online fraud) and psychosocial cybercrime (cyberbullying, revenge porn, cyberstalking, online harassment) among men and women. The results revealed that women considered psychosocial cybercrime worse than men. Conversely, we found no differences regarding socioeconomic cybercrime. The article concludes that psychosocial cybercrimes are more gendered than socioeconomic cybercrime, suggesting problems with the term “cyber-enabled crimes” and substantiating the synergy between the TCF and feminist perspectives

Dataset for 'The Democratic Republic of Congo armed conflict (1998 – 2004): assessing excess mortality based on factual and counterfactual scenarios'.

D R Congo 1984 census projected using Cohort Component Projection Techniques under a variety of scenarios.</span