Learning, monetary policy and housing prices

This paper evaluates different types of simple monetary policy rules according to the determinacy and learnability of rational expectations equilibrium criteria within a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework. Incorporating housing prices and collateralized borrowing into the standard model allow us to answer important policy questions. One objective is to investigate whether responding to housing prices affects determinacy and learnability of rational expectations equilibrium. For this purpose, we work with a New Keynesian model in which housing plays an accelerator role in business cycles as a collateralized asset. The results show that for current data rule, responding to asset prices does not improve learnable outcomes but for a monetary policy with lagged data and forward-looking rules we see improved learnable outcome if current housing prices are available to monetary authority. Moreover, we examine the effects of interest rate inertia and price stickiness on E-stability of REE.monetary policy rules, determinacy, learning, housing prices

Learning, monetary policy and housing prices

This paper evaluates different types of simple monetary policy rules according to the determinacy and learnability of rational expectations equilibrium criteria within a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework. Incorporating housing prices and collateralized borrowing into the standard model allow us to answer important policy questions. One objective is to investigate whether responding to housing prices affects determinacy and learnability of rational expectations equilibrium. For this purpose, we work with a New Keynesian model in which housing plays an accelerator role in business cycles as a collateralized asset. The results show that for current data rule, responding to asset prices does not improve learnable outcomes but for a monetary policy with lagged data and forward-looking rules we see improved learnable outcome if current housing prices are available to monetary authority. Moreover, we examine the effects of interest rate inertia and price stickiness on E-stability of REE

Türkiye Ekonomik Politika Belirsizliği Endeksi

Economic policy uncertainty is now widely accepted as one of the leading factors responsible for the global sluggish recovery. Measurement of these uncertainties is a crucial task for recent disccussions on the effects of policy uncertainty on the economic and financial variables. While indices to measure these economic policy uncertainies for several countries have been constructed, there does not exist one for Turkey. This note reviews the concept of economic policy uncertainty index as an economic policy uncertainty measure by presenting US and Europe indices, introduces a similar index for Turkey, and shows that the constructed index can be used as an uncertainty measure

Nüfus Yapısındaki Değişimlerin Uzun Dönem Konut Talebi Üzerindeki Etkileri

In this study, we investigate the effects of age structure dynamics of population on the housing demand in Turkey. The critical question is how the housing demand moves in the environment of positive population growth with declining rate and aging population. We use TurkStat Household Budget Survey to determine the link between household housing demand and household age cohorts. We obtain housing demand for each age cohorts and long term housing demand for Turkey by utilizing TurkStat population forecasts. Estimation results indicate that age structure of population has a notable effect on the growth of housing demand besides population growth. The results show housing demand will increase 1.48 percent annually on average from 2009 to 2050 where 1.08 percent of the increase will be contributed by population growth and the rest of 0.40 percent will be derived by the change in age structure of the population

Anticipated vs. Unanticipated House Price Movements and Transaction Volume

Using data from England and Wales, we analyze the relationship between house prices and transaction volume (number of houses sold) and find that there is a negative relationship. When we decompose price changes into anticipated and unanticipated components we find that while anticipated house price changes positively affect transaction volume, unanticipated price changes have a negative effect. These findings give insights for the theories which try to explain the relationship between house prices and transaction volume. Our findings are inconsistent with the down-payment effect approach developed by Stein (1995) and with the loss aversion behavior approach discussed by Genesove and Mayer (2001). However, our results support the evidence of asymmetric decisions on the buyer and seller side documented in Case and Shiller (1988)

Nüfus Yapısındaki Değişimlerin Uzun Dönem Konut Talebi Üzerindeki Etkileri

In this study, we investigate the effects of age structure dynamics of population on the housing demand in Turkey. The critical question is how the housing demand moves in the environment of positive population growth with declining rate and aging population. We use TurkStat Household Budget Survey to determine the link between household housing demand and household age cohorts. We obtain housing demand for each age cohorts and long term housing demand for Turkey by utilizing TurkStat population forecasts. Estimation results indicate that age structure of population has a notable effect on the growth of housing demand besides population growth. The results show housing demand will increase 1.48 percent annually on average from 2009 to 2050 where 1.08 percent of the increase will be contributed by population growth and the rest of 0.40 percent will be derived by the change in age structure of the population

Anticipated vs. Unanticipated House Price Movements and Transaction Volume

Using data from England and Wales, we analyze the relationship between house prices and transaction volume (number of houses sold) and find that there is a negative relationship. When we decompose price changes into anticipated and unanticipated components we find that while anticipated house price changes positively affect transaction volume, unanticipated price changes have a negative effect. These findings give insights for the theories which try to explain the relationship between house prices and transaction volume. Our findings are inconsistent with the down-payment effect approach developed by Stein (1995) and with the loss aversion behavior approach discussed by Genesove and Mayer (2001). However, our results support the evidence of asymmetric decisions on the buyer and seller side documented in Case and Shiller (1988)

Housing prices and transaction volume

We use annual, quarterly and monthly data from the US to show that the correlation between housing prices and transaction volume (number of existing houses sold) differs across different frequencies. While the correlation is high at low frequencies it declines to the levels close to zero at high frequencies. Granger causality tests for different frequencies show the way of causality in housing market goes from transactions to housing prices. Our findings provide a litmus test for the existing theories that are proposed to explain the positive correlation between housing prices and transaction volume

Fire Experiments of Thin-Walled CFRP Pretensioned High Strength Concrete Slabs Under Service Load

Sustainable precast concrete elements are emerging utilizing high-performance, self-consolidating, fibre-reinforced concrete (HPSCC) reinforced with high-strength, lightweight, and non-corroding prestressed carbon fibre reinforced plastic tendons. One example of this is a new type of precast carbon FRP pretensioned HPSCC panel intended as load-bearing panels for glass concrete building facades. It is known that the bond strength between both steel and FRP reinforcing tendons and concrete deteriorates at elevated temperature and that high strength concrete tends to an explosive spalling failure mode when subjected to a fire. The bond strength reductions in fire, their impacts on the load-bearing capacity of prestressed concrete structures, and the spalling behaviour of high-strength concrete remain poorly understood. This paper gives insight in the fire behaviour of filigree CFRP prestressed HPSCC slabs and presents selected results and analysis of an experimental fire test series on 45 mm and 60 mm thin-walled slabs. The main findings are that the fire resistance of the slabs is determined by spalling of the HPSCC or – if spalling can be avoided by the use of 5 kg/m3 PP microfibers in the concrete – by the thermal splitting-crack induced bond failure of the CFRP tendons in their prestress transfer zone