45 research outputs found

    Characterizing the temporally stable structure of community evolution in intra-urban origin-destination networks

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    Intra-urban origin-destination (OD) network communities evolve throughout the day, indicating changing groups of closely connected regions. Under this variation, groups of regions with high consistency of community affiliation characterize the temporally stable structure of the evolution process, aiding in comprehending urban dynamics. However, how to quantify this consistency and identify these groups are open questions. In this study, we introduce the consensus OD network to quantify the consistency of community affiliation among regions. Furthermore, the temporally stable community decomposition method is proposed to identify groups of regions with high internal and low external consistency (named "stable groups"), where each group consists of temporally stable cores and attaching peripheries. Wuhan taxi data is used to verify our methods. On the hourly time scale, eleven stable groups containing 82.9% of regions are identified. This high percentage suggests that dynamic communities can be well organized via cores. Moreover, stable groups are spatially closed and more likely to distribute within a single district and separated by water bodies. Cores exhibit higher POI entropy and more healthcare and shopping services than peripheries. Our methods and empirical findings contribute to some practical issues, such as urban area division, polycentric evaluation and construction, and infectious disease control

    Visit-to-Visit Blood Pressure Variability and Sleep Architecture

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    Visit‐to‐visit blood pressure (BP) variability (BPV) is an independent risk factor of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Sleep architecture characterizes the distribution of different stages of sleep and may be important in CVD development. We examined the association between visit‐to‐visit BPV and sleep architecture using in‐lab polysomnographic data from 3,565 patients referred to an academic sleep center. BPV was calculated using the intra‐individual coefficient of variation of BP measures collected 12 months before the sleep study. We conducted multiple linear regression analyses to assess the association of systolic and diastolic BPV with sleep architecture—rapid eye movement (REM) and non‐rapid eye movement (NREM) sleep duration. Our results show that systolic BPV was inversely associated with REM sleep duration (p = .058). When patients were divided into tertile groups based on their BPV, those in the third tertile (highest variability) spent 2.7 fewer minutes in REM sleep than those in the first tertile (lowest variability, p = .032), after adjusting for covariates. We did not find an association of systolic BPV with other measures of sleep architecture. Diastolic BPV was not associated with sleep architecture either. In summary, our study showed that greater systolic BPV was associated with lower REM sleep duration. Future investigation is warranted to clarify the directionality, mechanism, and therapeutic implications

    Rethinking the Number of Shots in Robust Model-Agnostic Meta-Learning

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    Robust Model-Agnostic Meta-Learning (MAML) is usually adopted to train a meta-model which may fast adapt to novel classes with only a few exemplars and meanwhile remain robust to adversarial attacks. The conventional solution for robust MAML is to introduce robustness-promoting regularization during meta-training stage. With such a regularization, previous robust MAML methods simply follow the typical MAML practice that the number of training shots should match with the number of test shots to achieve an optimal adaptation performance. However, although the robustness can be largely improved, previous methods sacrifice clean accuracy a lot. In this paper, we observe that introducing robustness-promoting regularization into MAML reduces the intrinsic dimension of clean sample features, which results in a lower capacity of clean representations. This may explain why the clean accuracy of previous robust MAML methods drops severely. Based on this observation, we propose a simple strategy, i.e., increasing the number of training shots, to mitigate the loss of intrinsic dimension caused by robustness-promoting regularization. Though simple, our method remarkably improves the clean accuracy of MAML without much loss of robustness, producing a robust yet accurate model. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms prior arts in achieving a better trade-off between accuracy and robustness. Besides, we observe that our method is less sensitive to the number of fine-tuning steps during meta-training, which allows for a reduced number of fine-tuning steps to improve training efficiency

    Research on “Main Classroom+” Practice Teaching Model of Political Theory Courses

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    Essentially, the top priority of political theory teaching reform and innovation in military academies is to fully implement the military education strategies of the new era, and to focus on the fundamental task and core direction characterized by fostering virtue through education and training talents for warfare. In this regard, this paper explores the construction of the “main classroom+” practice teaching model of political theory course from four dimensions, encompassing “thematic practice”, “professional customization”, “comprehensive exercise”, and “practice expansion”, intending to provide feasible paths and methods for military academies to realize more effective integration of theory and practice of political theory teaching in the new era

    Syntaxin of plants71 plays essential roles in plant development and stress response via regulating pH homeostasis

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    SYP71, a plant-specific Qc-SNARE with multiple subcellular localization, is essential for symbiotic nitrogen fixation in nodules in Lotus, and is implicated in plant resistance to pathogenesis in rice, wheat and soybean. Arabidopsis SYP71 is proposed to participate in multiple membrane fusion steps during secretion. To date, the molecular mechanism underlying SYP71 regulation on plant development remains elusive. In this study, we clarified that AtSYP71 is essential for plant development and stress response, using techniques of cell biology, molecular biology, biochemistry, genetics, and transcriptomics. AtSYP71-knockout mutant atsyp71-1 was lethal at early development stage due to the failure of root elongation and albinism of the leaves. AtSYP71-knockdown mutants, atsyp71-2 and atsyp71-3, had short roots, delayed early development, and altered stress response. The cell wall structure and components changed significantly in atsyp71-2 due to disrupted cell wall biosynthesis and dynamics. Reactive oxygen species homeostasis and pH homeostasis were also collapsed in atsyp71-2. All these defects were likely resulted from blocked secretion pathway in the mutants. Strikingly, change of pH value significantly affected ROS homeostasis in atsyp71-2, suggesting interconnection between ROS and pH homeostasis. Furthermore, we identified AtSYP71 partners and propose that AtSYP71 forms distinct SNARE complexes to mediate multiple membrane fusion steps in secretory pathway. Our findings suggest that AtSYP71 plays an essential role in plant development and stress response via regulating pH homeostasis through secretory pathway

    The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

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    Background Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4.45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4.01-4.94) deaths and 105 million (95.0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44.4% (41.3-48.4) of all cancer deaths and 42.0% (39.1-45.6) of all DALYs. There were 2.88 million (2.60-3.18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50.6% [47.8-54.1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1.58 million (1.36-1.84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36.3% [32.5-41.3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20.4% (12.6-28.4) and DALYs by 16.8% (8.8-25.0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34.7% [27.9-42.8] and 33.3% [25.8-42.0]). Interpretation The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.Peer reviewe

    Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

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    Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

    Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

    Get PDF
    BACKGROUND: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. METHODS: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. FINDINGS: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. INTERPRETATION: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

    Querying Similar Multi-Dimensional Time Series with a Spatial Database

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    Similar time series search is one of the most important time series mining tasks in our daily life. As recent advances in sensor technologies accumulate abundant multi-dimensional time series data associated with multivariate quantities, it becomes a privilege to adapt similar time series searches for large-scale and multi-dimensional time series data. However, traditional similar time series search methods are mainly designed for one-dimensional time series, while advanced methods applicable for multi-dimensional time series data are largely immature and, more importantly, are not friendly to users from the domain of geography. As an alternative, we propose a novel method to search similar multi-dimensional time series with spatial databases. Compared with traditional methods that often conduct the similarity search based on features of the raw time series data sequence, the proposed method stores multi-dimensional time series as spatial objects in a spatial database, and then searches similar time series based on their spatial features. To demonstrate the validity of the proposed method, we analyzed the correlation between temporal features of the raw time series and spatial features of their corresponding spatial objects theoretically and empirically. Results indicate that the proposed method can not only support similar multi-dimensional time series searches but also markedly improve its efficiency under many specific scenarios. We believe that such a new paradigm will shed further light on the similarity search in large-scale multi-dimensional time series data, and will lower the barrier for users familiar with spatial databases to conduct complex time series mining tasks
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