Shock Persistence and Current Account Dynamics

One-sector inter-temporal models of the current account predict that a transitory shock to the terms of trade will lead to improvement in trade balance, while a persistent (or permanent) one could result in trade balance deterioration. This paper reexamines this issue in a two-sector small open economy model with non-traded goods and show that the result may not hold, depending on the exchange rate regime.Two-sector model, Current account, Shock persistence, Terms of trade, Exchange rate regimes.

On the Connections between Intertemporal and Intra-temporal Trades

This paper develops a new theory of international economics by introducing Heckscher-Ohlin features of intra-temporal trade into an intertemporal trade approach of current account. To do so, we consider a dynamic general equilibrium model with tradable sectors of different factor intensities, which allows for substitution between intertemporal trade (current account adjustment) and intra-temporal trade (goods trade). An economy's response to a shock generally involves a combination of a change in the composition of goods trade and a change in the current account. Flexible factor markets reduce the need for the current account to adjust. On the other hand, the more rigid the factor markets, the larger the size of current account adjustment relative to the volume of goods trade, and the slower the speed of adjustment of the current account towards its long-run equilibrium. We present empirical evidence consistent with the theory.