2 research outputs found
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Comparison of Patient and Expert Perceptions of the Attainment of Research Milestones in Parkinson's Disease.
BACKGROUND: Commentators suggest that patients have unrealistic expectations about the pace of research advances and that such expectations interfere with patient decision-making. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to compare expert expectations about the timing of research milestone attainment with those of patients who follow Parkinson's disease (PD) research. METHODS: Patients with PD and experts were asked to provide forecasts about 11 milestones in PD research in an online survey. PD experts were identified from a Michael J. Fox Foundation database, highly ranked neurology centers in the United States and Canada, and corresponding authors of articles on PD in top medical journals. Patients with PD were recruited through the Michael J. Fox Foundation. We tested whether patient forecasts differed on average from expert forecasts. We also tested whether differences between patient forecasts and the average expert forecasts were associated with any demographic factors. RESULTS: A total of 256 patients and 249 PD experts completed the survey. For 9 of the 11 milestones, patients' forecasts were on average higher than those of experts. Only exercise therapy met our 10% difference threshold for practical significance. Education was the only demographic that predicted patient deviations from expert forecasts on milestone forecasts. Patients offered significantly higher forecasts than experts that the clinical trials used in milestone queries would report positive primary outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Differences between patient and expert expectations about research milestones were generally minor, suggesting that there is little cause for concern that patients who follow PD research are unduly swayed by inaccurate representations of research advancement in the media or elsewhere. © 2020 The Authors. Movement Disorders published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society
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Forecasts for the Attainment of Major Research Milestones in Parkinson's Disease.
BACKGROUND: Projections about when research milestones will be attained are often of interest to patients and can help inform decisions about research funding and health system planning. OBJECTIVE: To collect aggregated expert forecasts on the attainment of 11 major research milestones in Parkinson's disease (PD). METHODS: Experts were asked to provide predictions about the attainment of 11 milestones in PD research in an online survey. PD experts were identified from: 1) The Michael J. Fox Foundation for Parkinson's Research data base, 2) doctors specializing in PD at top ranked neurology centers in the US and Canada, and 3) corresponding authors of articles on PD in top medical journals. Judgments were aggregated using coherence weighting. We tested the relationship between demographic variables and individual judgments using a linear regression. RESULTS: 249 PD experts completed the survey. In the aggregate, experts believed that new treatments like gene therapy for monogenic PD, immunotherapy and cell therapy had 56.1%, 59.7%, and 66.6% probability, respectively of progressing in the clinical approval process within the next 10 years. Milestones involving existing management approaches, like the approval of a deep brain stimulation device or a body worn sensor had 78.4% and 82.2% probability of occurring within the next 10 years. Demographic factors were unable to explain deviations from the aggregate forecast (R2 = 0.029). CONCLUSIONS: Aggregated expert opinion suggests that milestones for the advancement of new treatment options for PD are still many years away. However, other improvements in PD diagnosis and management are believed to be near at hand