Accelerating the Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions: The Influence of Uncertainties in Economic Growth and Technological Change

Technological change has been used both in favor of, and against delaying the onset of greenhouse gas abatement. In this paper we develop a theoretical model using stochastic dynamic programming to show that the uncertainties in technological change and economic growth have a direct impact on the design of cost-effective policies and their effect is to unambiguously dilute arguments in favor of delaying mitigation. Optimal strategies that meet emission reduction targets in the presence of these uncertainties require earlier and greater abatement of carbon emissions. As policy makers at the national and sub-national level set GHG reduction targets, they should aim for more rapid reductions earlier

Variability in costs of electrifying passenger cars in Canada

The high cost of purchasing electric vehicles (EVs) compared to internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) is a major barrier to their widespread adoption. Additionally, the price disparity is not the same for all households. We conducted a total cost of ownership (TCO) analysis to compare the net present value of EV versus ICEV ownership for various household categories across Canada. We observed spatial and behavioral factors, including variations in costs of electricity, temperature, household archetypes and their purchase decisions, and access to charging infrastructure. We found that EVs are more cost-effective than ICEVs for certain daily driving distances, but typical households in Canada generally do not drive enough for lifecycle costs of EVs to be less than ICEVs. The province of Quebec has the most favorable conditions for EV ownership due to high purchase subsidies and low electricity prices. Variability in costs across other provinces and territories is mainly due to differences in rebates, electricity and gasoline prices, and tax rates. Our findings have implications for policymakers and consumers. For consumers comparing ICEVs to EVs based on a fixed budget, which may be consistent with how many households frame their purchase decision, willingness to accept smaller, non-luxury EVs can result in large cost savings. We also find that although temperature variation has a minimal effect on TCO, it does impact the ‘number of charge-ups’—a metric that we introduce to compare how many charging cycles a user may expect over the lifetime of a vehicle. The policy implication of this would be a need to consider regional differences in cold weather patterns when planning charging infrastructure deployment and the extent to which households in shared dwellings may face additional costs. Lastly, our findings strengthen the argument that equitably decarbonizing transportation will also require investment in strategies other than electrifying personal vehicles

Measuring and tracking the flow of climate change adaptation aid to the developing world

The developed world has pledged to mobilize at least US $100 billion per year of ‘new’ and ‘additional’ funds by 2020 to help the developing world respond to climate change. Tracking this finance is particularly problematic for climate change adaptation, as there is no clear definition of what separates adaptation aid from standard development aid. Here we use a historical database of overseas development assistance projects to test the effect of different accounting assumptions on the delivery of adaptation finance to the developing countries of Oceania, using machine algorithms developed from a manual pilot study. The results show that explicit adaptation finance grew to 3%–4% of all development aid to Oceania by the 2008–2012 period, but that total adaptation finance could be as high as 37% of all aid, depending on potentially politically motivated assumptions about what counts as adaptation. There was also an uneven distribution of adaptation aid between countries facing similar challenges like Kiribati, the Marshall Islands, and the Federated States of Micronesia. The analysis indicates that data allowing individual projects to be weighted by their climate change relevance is needed. A robust and mandatory metadata system for all aid projects would allow multilateral aid agencies and independent third parties to perform their own analyses using different assumptions and definitions, and serve as a key check on international climate aid promises