Applied General Equilibrium Analysis of Renewable Energy Policies

In this paper we develop an applied general equilibrium framework for assessing socio-economic impacts of alternative renewable energy policies and apply it to the bioenergy sector. The policy scenarios are assessed in a comparative static analysis. The numerical simulation results allow us to assess and compare welfare and distributional impacts of alternative renewable energy policies. Our empirical findings suggest that the bioenergy sector in Poland would benefit most from an indirect tax reduction. According to our simulation results, reducing the fossil energy sectors’ subsidies would be the second best policy option.Applied General Equilibrium, CGE, Renewable Energy, Bioenergy

Integrated Appraisal of Renewable Energy Strategies: A CGE Analysis

The preparation, implementation, coordination and verification of policy measures is a complex and difficult process. This paper presents the first results of an empirical ex-ante analysis which evaluates the effects of renewable energy policies on the Polish bioenergy sector applying an Applied General Equilibrium model. The empirical results suggest that the Polish bioenergy sector benefits more from an indirect tax reduction than from the removal of fossil energy sector subsidies. Reductions in fossil energy sector output below the reference case (base run) do not impact on all fossil energy sectors equally. The crude oil and natural gas sectors lose less (gain more) compared to other fossil energy sectors by implementing renewable energy policy measures.Impact assessment, renewable energy policy, bioenergy, CGE

Evaluation of Renewable Energy Policies

The world demand for clean and renewable energy is growing, which is a response to stringent environmental policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions; price instability on the world energy markets and declining fossil energy resource availability. The main goal of the current study is to evaluate alternative renewable energy policies, which we achieve by quantitatively assessing socio-economic impacts of selected policy instruments. In particular, we perform ex-ante scenario simulations using a general equilibrium bioenergy model. Our empirical results suggest that a fossil energy tax is more efficient than a subsidy. In line with previous studies we found that a subsidy lowers the average cost of production, a tax increases the average cost of production. Our empirical results suggest that bioenergy sector benefits more from an indirect tax reduction than from a removal of fossil energy sectors' subsidies.Emission reduction, renewable energy, policy impact assessment

Efficiency of European Funds in the Accession Countries: The Case of Transport Infrastructure Investments in Latvia

A transport infrastructure investment as any kind of transport initiative has an impact on the monetary cost, time cost, efficiency and quality of transportation of goods and people. Prior to launching a transport initiative, all such initiatives are subject to cost benefit analyses at the national and EU level to know whether the present value of total net benefits including environmental impacts exceeds the cost. However, several important welfare issues are not sufficiently addressed in standard evaluation procedures. One issue is whether the so-called direct measurement of user benefit, which consists in quantifying changes in surplus of the users of the transport system, captures all welfare generated in the economy. Another issue is how the gains (or possibly losses) of a transport initiative are distributed among regions. The goal of this paper is to improve the understanding of the impact of transportation policies on short- and long-term spatial development in the new EU member states, which we achieve by performing a systematic and quantitative analysis of socio-economic and spatial impacts of alternative transport investments by carrying out scenario simulations. The scenario simulation results suggest that investments in railroad projects are more efficient in terms of regional welfare than road project investments.EU structural funds, economic integration, CGE

Structural Estimation of Variety Gains from Trade Integration in Asia

Structural Estimation of Variety Gains from Trade Integration in Asia  The present paper studies variety gains from trade integration in Asia. Applying a heterogenous Örm model we simulate trade integration in Asia in three different scenarios (CIFTA, ASEAN+3, and ASEAN+6). The paper makes three contributions to the literature. First, in addition to traditional gains from specialisation, we also account for gains arising from increased number of different varieties. Second, we explicitly account for di§erences in trade gains between variable and fixed trade cost reduction. Third, using a unique set of firm-level panel data we estimate the underlying trade modelís structural parameters econometrically. We find that the gains from trade integration are substantial. Reducing trade barriers by 15 percent induces trade growth up to 60 percent, which due to the additional extensive margin is more than in trade models with representative firms. Similarly, due due additional welfare gains from variety growth, the gains from trade are up to 17 percent higher than in models with homogenous products.Variety gains, extensive margin, trade integration, Asia, heterogenous firms.

Predicting European Enlargement Impacts: A Framework of Inter-regional General Equilibrium

Although the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model is not a new tool for analysing policy impacts, it has not gained a wide popularity in regional applications such as rural economies yet. This study demonstrates how a regional CGE model can be applied for analysing regional impacts of changing global economic conditions as well as for assessing inter-regional and inter-sectoral implications of policy changes with even limited computational resources and lacking a full range of regional economic data required by a formal CGE analysis. In the empirical analysis we have found that rural economies in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) accession countries may expect the largest welfare gains from integration into the European Union (EU) if the EU Structural Fund and CAP support measures are implemented immediately but markets are opened gradually to foreign competition.CGE, EU, regional economies, economic integration

Can we use NEG models to predict migration flows? An example of CEE accession countries

In this paper we develop an analytically solvable and structurally estimable economic geography model and apply it to predict migration flows for the period following the CEE’s integration with the EU. The main innovation of our approach is that it endogenises both explanatory variables and the migration rate. The underlying structural parameters are estimated econometrically using a migration equation, which is derived entirely from the theoretical NEG model. Our simulations show that even relatively moderate changes in some of the explanatory variables (such as transport costs) can actuate unpredictable changes (both in sign and magnitude) in other explanatory variables (such as wages). Keeping these explanatory variables fixed, as in reduced-form models, would produce biased results. Our empirical findings advocate that there is enough evidence to predict a selective migration among the three Baltic States. However, labour mobility in the Baltic countries is sufficiently low to make the swift emergence of a core-periphery pattern very unlikely at this geographical level.Migration, economic geography, European regions, integration

The Factor Content of Heterogeneous Firm Trade

In this paper we study the determinants of the factor content of the CEE agricultural trade. Examining empirically three hypothesis, which relate cross- country di§erences in technology, relative factor abundance and transaction costs and market imperfections to the factor content of trade, we find that the first two hypotheses are confirmed by the ma jority of the developed EU countries, but rejected by roughly one half of the CEE transition country pairs. Second, we find that when accounting for transaction costs of farm (re)organisation, both hypotheses are confirmed by the ma jority of the CEE country pairs. These findings provide empirical evidence of market imperfections, and particularly, of transaction costs of farm (re)organisation in the CEE.Factor content, bilateral trade, relative factor abundance, technological diferences, agriculture, transaction costs

Methodology for the Assessment of Spatial Economic Impacts of Transport Projects and Policies

In this study we develop an integrated econometric and CGE modelling framework for transport projects and transport policies at the European level by integrating network, regional economic and macro-economic impacts. The paper presents the formal structure of the integrated econometric and CGE modelling framework, explains the calibration and applies it to the policy evaluation. The effects of infrastructure investments are modelled by simulating trade cost changes in a comparative static analysis, using estimates of trade cost changes due to new infrastructure links, obtained from a transport network model. By performing a systematic and quantitative analysis of the spatial, network and socio-economic impacts of transport investments and policy and carrying out scenario simulations we improve the under-standing of the impact of transportation policies on short- and long-term spatial development in the EU.Transport Policy, Impact analysis, Spatial CGE Model

Migration in the Enlarged European Union: Empirical Evidence for Labour Mobility in the Baltic States

The free movement of workers is a highly controversial issue with regard to the Eastern enlargement of the European Union (EU). Members of the EU are extremely anxious of mass immigration flows from Central and Eastern Europe countries (CEECs). This paper estimates the potential migration and analyses socio-economic impacts of migration in the context of the EU enlargement. How many people might migrate from the Eastern European transition countries to Western Europe, and what will be the socio-economic consequences for home and host countries? In order to answer these questions we draw on previous literature as well as on our empirical work. In the empirical analysis we evaluate the size and the structure of current and future migration to Western Europe. In particular, we estimate the future migration pressure, based on economic conditions in the Baltic States and Western Europe. Our empirical results suggest that depending on assumptions 3-5 percent of home countries working population might emigrate after opening labour markets in the old EU member states.International labour migration, EU integration, panel data, econometric model