Rice as a Determinant of Vietnamese Economic Sustainability

This paper aims to examine the rice industry in Vietnam during the period 1997–2017, focusing its production and export. The total area of Vietnam is 33.121 million hectares, out of which 39.25% consists of agricultural land. The agricultural sector adds up to 24% of the gross domestic product (GDP), 20% of the total exports and over 70% of the total employment. Vietnam’s economy is highly dependent on the agricultural sector, specifically rice production, which constitutes 30% of the country’s total agricultural production value. While its production at first aimed to ensure food security in the country, to date, Vietnam is one the world’s largest exporters. While extensive research has explored the rice industry, studies looking at the production through the use of fertilizers, external factors such as the exporting price of other countries and world consumption rates are still lacking. Given the complexity of the topic, data were analyzed through descriptive, econometric and quantitative methods. For production and export analyses, two and four hypotheses were derived and examined, respectively, all based on economic theory. The model consisted of two equations: (i) the paddy production is impacted by rice’s yield and fertilizer use and (ii) in addition to internal factors, the growth of exporting rice in Vietnam depends also on external factors such as Thailand’s rice export price and world consumption rates. Based on the model, a dynamic forecasting method was employed, using the previous forecast values of the dependent variables to compute the future ones. Findings showed that 98% of Vietnam’s rice production is explained through the yield and fertilizer usage and 83% of Vietnam’s rice export is explained by the production, the price in Vietnam and Thailand and the consumption levels around the world. When it comes to forecasting, an 8% growth is predicted with a peak in quantity produced, with 49,461 thousand tons in 2023, yet with difficulties when it comes to exporting. The research predicts a stagnation in exports

Key Drivers of Public Debt Levels: Empirical Evidence from Africa

The rising public debt level in Africa and the sustainability of that debt remains an important research agenda. As such, understanding the factors that impact the rising public debt level in Africa remains an important research agenda. Our paper investigates the key determining drivers that have a direct and indirect impact on the rising level of public debt in Africa from a panel of 47 African nations for the period 2000–2018. Using the generalized method of moments (GMM) and fixed effects two-stage least squares (IV-FE) methodological approach the study confirms that a rise in the corruption level leads to an increase in the public debt in Africa. Our findings additionally indicate that government investment enhances the positive and significant association with public debt levels in the sampled countries. Our result revealed that government consumption and tax revenue have a significant negative relationship with the levels of public debt in Africa. Lastly, our results showed that military expenditure has a positive but insignificant relationship with public debt levels in Africa. In terms of policy recommendation, the study suggests African countries should intensify the fight against corruption and strengthen political and governance institutions that will help reduce public debt levels and promote economic growth and development

Assessment and Prediction of Maize Production Considering Climate Change by Extreme Learning Machine in Czechia

Machine learning algorithms have been applied in the agriculture field to forecast crop productivity. Previous studies mainly focused on the whole crop growth period while different time windows on yield prediction were still unknown. The entire growth period was separated into each month to assess their corresponding predictive ability by taking maize production (silage and grain) in Czechia. We present a thorough assessment of county-level maize yield prediction in Czechia using a machine learning algorithm (extreme learning machine (ELM)) and an extensive set of weather data and maize yields from 2002 to 2018. Results show that sunshine in June and water deficit in July were vastly influential factors for silage maize yield. The two primary climate parameters for grain maize yield are minimum temperature in September and water deficit in May. The average absolute relative deviation (AARD), root mean square error (RMSE), and coefficient (R2) of the proposed models are 6.565–32.148%, 1.006–1.071%, 0.641–0.716, respectively. Based on the results, silage yield will decrease by 1.367 t/ha (3.826% loss), and grain yield will increase by 0.337 t/ha (5.394% increase) when the max temperature in May increases by 2 °C. In conclusion, ELM models show a great potential application for predicting maize yield

Key Drivers of Public Debt Levels: Empirical Evidence from Africa

The rising public debt level in Africa and the sustainability of that debt remains an important research agenda. As such, understanding the factors that impact the rising public debt level in Africa remains an important research agenda. Our paper investigates the key determining drivers that have a direct and indirect impact on the rising level of public debt in Africa from a panel of 47 African nations for the period 2000–2018. Using the generalized method of moments (GMM) and fixed effects two-stage least squares (IV-FE) methodological approach the study confirms that a rise in the corruption level leads to an increase in the public debt in Africa. Our findings additionally indicate that government investment enhances the positive and significant association with public debt levels in the sampled countries. Our result revealed that government consumption and tax revenue have a significant negative relationship with the levels of public debt in Africa. Lastly, our results showed that military expenditure has a positive but insignificant relationship with public debt levels in Africa. In terms of policy recommendation, the study suggests African countries should intensify the fight against corruption and strengthen political and governance institutions that will help reduce public debt levels and promote economic growth and development

Impact of Agriculture and Energy on CO₂ Emissions in Zambia

The world has experienced increased impacts of anthropogenic global warming due to increased emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), which include carbon dioxide (CO2). Anthropogenic activities that contribute to CO2 emissions include deforestation, usage of fertilizers, and activities related to mining and energy production. The main objective of this paper was to assess the impacts of agriculture and energy production on CO2 emissions in Zambia. This research used econometric analysis, specifically the Autoregressive-Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds Test, to analyze the relationship between CO2 emissions and GDP, electricity consumption, agricultural production, and industry value added. The results showed the presence of cointegration, where the variables of CO2 emissions, GDP, electricity, and agriculture converge to a long-run equilibrium at the rate of 74%. Further, there was a short-run causality towards CO2 emissions running from agriculture and the consumption of energy as indicated by the Wald test. This is the first study of its kind that empirically shows the impact of agricultural activities and energy consumption on the Zambian environment through their contribution to CO2 emissions at a macro (country) level. This paper also presents recommendations that are pertinent to mitigate these effects. To deescalate environmental degradation, we propose increasing the number of access points for multiple renewable energy sources across the country; discouraging deforestation, the usage of conventional fertilizers, and the burning of vegetation for fertilizers; encouraging afforestation and reforestation, in addition to providing subsidies, training, and financial support to farmers and entrepreneurs who decide to use environmentally friendly agricultural methods and renewable energy. This research highlights the serious impacts of anthropogenic activities on CO2 emissions. The study was intended to assist Zambian policymakers in formulating and implementing environmentally friendly policy measures or systems that will contribute towards environmental protection commitments and sustainable economic development

Agriculture as a Determinant of Zambian Economic Sustainability

For several years, the Zambian economy relied on the mining sector, which has been affected by fluctuations in commodity prices. The new century enhanced the calls for economic diversification, with the agricultural, manufacturing, and services sectors amongst those pronounced. This article focused on the role of agriculture in supporting the economy, particularly, the effect of agriculture on economic growth. The data analyzed was reviewed for the period 1983–2017. The ARDL Bounds Test was applied in order to meet the said objectives. The ECM results suggest that agriculture, manufacturing, services, and mining converge to an equilibrium and affect economic growth at the speed of adjustment of 90.6%, with the effect from agriculture, mining, and services being significant. The impact of agriculture on economic growth was significant in both the short-run and long-run, with coefficient unit effects of 0.428 and 0.342, respectively. The effects are strong because more than two-thirds of the rural population rely on farming, and agriculture has stood as a catalyst for food security. For the effect of agriculture to be much more profound, farmers must be supported with adequate infrastructure, accessibility to markets, farming inputs, better irrigation techniques, which would address the problem of reliance on rain, all of which were inconsistent in the last decade. Additionally, governments must ensure the institutionalization of food processing industries which add more value to the national income

Impact of Agriculture and Energy on CO2 Emissions in Zambia

The world has experienced increased impacts of anthropogenic global warming due to increased emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), which include carbon dioxide (CO2). Anthropogenic activities that contribute to CO2 emissions include deforestation, usage of fertilizers, and activities related to mining and energy production. The main objective of this paper was to assess the impacts of agriculture and energy production on CO2 emissions in Zambia. This research used econometric analysis, specifically the Autoregressive-Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds Test, to analyze the relationship between CO2 emissions and GDP, electricity consumption, agricultural production, and industry value added. The results showed the presence of cointegration, where the variables of CO2 emissions, GDP, electricity, and agriculture converge to a long-run equilibrium at the rate of 74%. Further, there was a short-run causality towards CO2 emissions running from agriculture and the consumption of energy as indicated by the Wald test. This is the first study of its kind that empirically shows the impact of agricultural activities and energy consumption on the Zambian environment through their contribution to CO2 emissions at a macro (country) level. This paper also presents recommendations that are pertinent to mitigate these effects. To deescalate environmental degradation, we propose increasing the number of access points for multiple renewable energy sources across the country; discouraging deforestation, the usage of conventional fertilizers, and the burning of vegetation for fertilizers; encouraging afforestation and reforestation, in addition to providing subsidies, training, and financial support to farmers and entrepreneurs who decide to use environmentally friendly agricultural methods and renewable energy. This research highlights the serious impacts of anthropogenic activities on CO2 emissions. The study was intended to assist Zambian policymakers in formulating and implementing environmentally friendly policy measures or systems that will contribute towards environmental protection commitments and sustainable economic development

The Impacts of Calamity Logging on the Sustainable Development of Spruce Fuel Biomass Prices and Spruce Pulp Prices in the Czech Republic

Currently, due to the calamity of unplanned harvesting, the amount of biomass from wood products has increased. Forests occupy 33.7% of the total area of the Czech Republic; therefore, wood and non-wood forest products are important renewables for the country. Wood biomass consists mainly of branches and bark that are not used in the wood or furniture industry. However, it can be used in bioenergy, including wood processing for fuel. As spruce production in the Czech Republic increased from the planned 15.5 million to almost 36.8 million trees in 2020, the price of wood biomass can be expected to be affected. This study aims to develop a predictive model for estimating the decline in the price of wood biomass for wood processors, such as firewood or sawdust producers, as well as for the paper industry. Wood biomass prices are falling with each additional million m3 of spruce wood harvested, as is the decline in wood pulp, which is intended for the paper and packaging industries. The proposed predictive model based on linear regressions should determine how the price of wood biomass will decrease with each additional million harvested spruce trees in the Czech Republic. This tool will be used for practical use in the forestry and wood industry. The linear regression model is suitable for practical forestry use due to its simplicity and high informative value. The aim of the research is to model the dependence of the prices of firewood in the form of wood briquettes and pellets for domestic and industrial processing, as well as the prices of wood pulp on the volume of unplanned logging. It is a guide for the practice of how to use excess spruce wood from unplanned mining in the field of alternative processing with a sustainable aspect for households or heat production for households. The intention is to carry out modelling in such a way that it does not include prices of higher quality wood assortments, which are intended for the woodworking industry

Durability of Zambia’s Agricultural Exports

This paper establishes the determinants of the export durability of agriculture products in Zambia with specific attention to maize, sugar, cotton, and tobacco between 1996 and 2019. We find that approximately 39% of Zambia’s agricultural products were exported beyond the first year of trading and less than 10% lasted up to 6 years of trading. The mean and median duration of exporting agricultural products in Zambia was 1.7 years and 1 year, respectively. Among the products, maize had the highest export duration after the first year of trading, followed by sugar, tobacco, and cotton. Results of the discrete-time logit and probit models with random effects revealed that the duration of total agricultural products was significantly impacted by common colony, contiguity, partner’s gross domestic product (GDP), Zambia’s GDP, initial exports, and total exports. Of these factors, colonial history and Zambia’s GDP reduced export duration, while contiguity, partner’s GDP, initial exports, and total exports increased the durability of exports in Zambia. The effect of Zambia’s GDP was uniform across all individual agricultural products. Total exports also significantly impacted all other agriculture products in a similar manner except for maize. Export durability for cotton was significantly impacted by the Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs), while the export durability of tobacco was significantly impacted by distance, contiguity, and partner’s GDP. To increase the duration of agriculture exports, we propose the exporting of finished agriculture products (and not just raw materials), which have a higher market value and duration probability. Farmers also need support with export subsidies, increased foreign market access (especially to economies with higher buying power), and negotiated favorable trade terms in the region and around the globe