Acturial Adjustment Aspects of Public Pension Schemes

It has been shown in economic research that public pay-as-you-go defined-benefit pension plans penalize those who continue to work beyond a certain age by reducing the present discounted value of future retirement benefits. In discussions on the effectiveness of policies aimed at eliminating this age-dependency in worker retirement decisions, it is often assumed either that the benefits in all future periods have the same weight in the present discounted value or that the discount rate is close to unity due to low real interest rates used in this case. In this paper we show, using the example of the U.S. pension scheme, that discounting plays a crucial role, since the formula for the present discounted value of future retirement benefits is sensitive to the discount rate used. Using discount rates derived from real interest rates in 1997, we find that the annual delayed retirement credit by which retirement benefits should be increased to compensate for lost benefits is at least 25% greater than it is in the case when discounting is neglected. Moreover when accouting for risk aversion towards lifetime uncertainty, the optimal delayed retirement credit is increased by 15-25%. Our results indicate that the U.S. pension scheme is not age neutral between ages 62 and 65. This may explain the peak in labor force withdrawal observed at age 62.

Retirement Decisions of Older Czech Male Workers

I analyze the effects associated with the introduction of the earnings test on older Czech males' labor supply in 1996. Using data from the Labor Force Survey, I apply a difference-in-differences estimator to measure the effect of the policy change in the Czech pension scheme using a sample of retired males aged 60 to 64 in 1995 and 1996. I use an age group not affected by the earnings test to separate the effect associated with the implementation of the earnings test. Correcting for sample selection, results indicate that the earnings test decreases the labor supply of retired males affected by the policy change. Their participation reduces by 7.7 percentage points, while hours of work decline by 4.8 hours per week. The response to the earnings test is moderately lower after controlling for the announcement of the policy change. The pecuniary value of the labor supply drop was negligible for the state in 1996, but increased significantly between 1996 and 2000.labor market policy, earnings test, labor supply, retirement

Changes in the Czech Wage Structure: Does Immigration Matter?

Using the Albrecht et al. (2003) version of the Machado and Mata (2005) decomposition technique along the wage distribution, we find that immigrant workers do not affect changes in the Czech wage structure between 2002 and 2006 despite their substantial inflows. Instead, changes in the wage structure are explained solely by increasing returns of native workers, while changes in the observed characteristics of native workers, particularly a rising level of education, are responsible for increasing wage dispersion. The sizeable inflows of foreign workers in the sample years are concentrated among young workers with primary and tertiary education and are primarily due to rising labour demand. The negative immigrant-native wage gaps are persistent along the wage distribution and are explained mainly by differences in observed characteristics. We provide evidence on increasing returns to education of native workers along the wage distribution. The returns are higher in 2006 than in 2002, in line with the evidence in the previous literature.Immigration, matched employer-employee data, quantile regression, wage gap decomposition, wage structure.

Survey on Wage and Price Formation of Czech Firms

Using an ad-hoc survey at the firm level, we investigate the determinants of wage and price-setting practices in Czech firms, the presence and sources of wage rigidity, and reactions of firms to hypothetical shocks. Although the evidence of downward wage rigidity is not widespread, we find particular relevance of efficiency wage models for wage rigidity, while implicit contract theory is relevant in firms employing mainly highskilled labour. The survey further suggests that prices are less rigid than wages, while the link between wage and price changes is weak. As a response to unanticipated shocks such as a demand drop, an increase in the cost of an intermediate input or a wage increase, firms mainly reduce costs by reducing non-labour costs and temporary employment.Downward wage rigidity, price setting, survey data, wage setting.

The Impact of Capital Measurement Error Correction on Firm-Level Production Function Estimation

Based on a large panel of Czech manufacturing firms, we estimate firm-level production functions in 2003-2007 using the Levinsohn and Petrin (2003) and Wooldridge (2009) approaches, correcting for the measurement error in capital. We show that measurement error plays a significant role in the size of the estimated capital coefficient. The capital coefficient estimate approximately doubles (depending on the particular industry) when we control for capital measurement error. Consequently, while the majority of industries exhibit constant or (in)significantly decreasing returns to scale when the standard methods are used, increasing returns cannot be rejected in some industries when the estimation is corrected for capital measurement error.Capital, firm-level data, measurement error.

Microfoundations of the Wage Inflation in the Czech Republic

We investigate whether microfoundations might increase the predictive power of macroeconomic models of wage inflation. By comparing past predictions to observed values, we find that the Phillips curve with the average unemployment rate in districts with prevalently low unemployment rates delivers more accurate predictions of aggregated wage inflation than the Phillips curve with the overall unemployment rate. The identification of specific groups of districts is based on our estimates of the wage curve at the regional level, i.e. the relationship between the regional level of wages and regional unemployment. Real wages adjust to changes in local unemployment in districts with low unemployment rates, a low share of public sector employment, and for the short-term unemployed. On the other hand, the welfare system might represent a floor preventing downward wage adjustments in districts with high unemployment rates and for the long-term unemployed. In the public sector, wages are negotiated at the economy-wide level, while the variance in regional unemployment does not play a role.Panel data, partial adjustment model, Phillips curve, unemployment, wage curve.

Unemployment and Inactivity Traps in the Czech Republic: Incentive Effects of Policies

We investigate to what extent high net replacement rates between non-work and work household income may distort work incentives. Using a microsimulation model, we find that net replacement rates are particularly high for households with a working partner and children. While net replacement rates decreased moderately between 1996 and 2006 as wages rose faster than social benefits, the incidence of unemployment traps remains high. In particular, about a third of all employed individuals have a low incentive to avoid short spells of unemployment with the unemployment benefits provided, while unemployment traps are also widespread among the unemployed. The incidence of unemployment traps increased further in 2007 despite a reform of benefits. In particular, housing benefit, which was overhauled to reflect housing costs, increases net replacement rates, distorting work incentives particularly among households with children. In addition, the rise in parental allowance may lock eligible individuals in non-employment, increasing the loss of human capital among non-working parents. This is particularly important for single parents, who face the highest specific unemployment rate, and also long unemployment spells among all household types. While the link between net replacement rates and labour market stocks and flows is not straightforward across household types, further research should focus on the labour market behaviour of particular household types.Labour supply, microsimulation models, net replacement rate, survey data, tax-benefit reform, unemployment trap.

Taxes and Benefits: Work Incentive Effects of Policies

Using net replacement rates between net household income while out of work and in work, the authors investigate to what extent taxes and benefits may affect work incentives. They find that in 2006, net replacement rates are higher for low-income households and for households with children and a partner, attenuating work incentives. Work incentives are significantly affected by eligibility rules and the amounts of benefits, particularly unemployment benefit and social assistance. Next, the authors examine how the reform of social benefits introduced in 2007 affects work incentives. While social assistance is less generous, diminishing the incidence of high net replacement rates, the reform gives preferential treatment to households with some work income. Net replacement rates are also higher for households with children, who receive a substantially higher housing benefit, but some less well-off households consequently receive less social assistance. The authors also see that increased parental allowance has the same crowding-out effect on other income-tested benefits as higher housing benefit has on social assistance. In addition, the rise in parental allowance may lock eligible individuals in non-employment, increasing the loss of human capital. This is particularly important for lone parents, who face the highest specific unemployment rate compared to other household types.labor supply, microsimulations, net replacement rate, tax-benefit system

Firm-Level Labour Demand: Adjustment in Good Times and During the Crisis

Using a large panel of Czech manufacturing firms with 50 or more employees, we update the firm-level labour demand elasticity estimates for 2002-2009. The economic crisis of 2008-2009 provides a source of variation needed for getting estimates that cover not only times of growth, but also a period of economic contraction. We find that in normal times (until 2007), the short-term elasticity is -0.53 with respect to wages and 0.43 with respect to sales, while the long-term elasticities are close to or below unity, standing at -0.94 for wages and 0.76 for sales. Both the wage and sales elasticities increased during the crisis, suggesting that firms became demand constrained, but only the sales elasticity is significantly different. The long-term wage elasticity close to -1 in the period before and during the crisis suggests that firms' employment decisions are made within fixed budgets. Finally, we find that the inclusion of workers hired through temporary work agencies does not significantly affect the results, indicating that firms take into account total labour when deciding on employment and that hired workers are used as an equal labour demand channel with lower adjustment costs. As a robustness check, our results are qualitatively comparable with the narrative evidence from an ad-hoc firm-level survey on wage and price formation conducted in 2007 and 2009 within the ESCB Wage Dynamics Network.Czech Republic, elasticity, firm-level data, labour demand, sales elasticity, wage elasticity, the crisis of 2008-2009.

Acturial Adjustment Aspects of Public Pension Schemes

It has been shown in economic research that public pay-as-you-go defined-benefit pension plans penalize those who continue to work beyond a certain age by reducing the present discounted value of future retirement benefits. In discussions on the effectiveness of policies aimed at eliminating this age-dependency in worker retirement decisions, it is often assumed either that the benefits in all future periods have the same weight in the present discounted value or that the discount rate is close to unity due to low real interest rates used in this case. In this paper we show, using the example of the U.S. pension scheme, that discounting plays a crucial role, since the formula for the present discounted value of future retirement benefits is sensitive to the discount rate used. Using discount rates derived from real interest rates in 1997, we find that the annual delayed retirement credit by which retirement benefits should be increased to compensate for lost benefits is at least 25% greater than it is in the case when discounting is neglected. Moreover when accouting for risk aversion towards lifetime uncertainty, the optimal delayed retirement credit is increased by 15- 25%. Our results indicate that the U.S. pension scheme is not age neutral between ages 62 and 65. This may explain the peak in labor force withdrawal observed at age 62.public pensions, defined-benefit pension plans, U.S. pension scheme, actuarial adjustment, delayed retirement credit, discounting, lifetime uncertainty, risk aversion