Using citizen data in a population model to estimate population size of moose (Alces alces)

Long-term and wide-ranging citizen science programs provide a unique opportunity to monitor wildlife populations and trends through time while encouraging stakeholder participation, engagement, and trust. Hunter observations is such a program that in Sweden is used on a regular basis to monitor population trends of moose. However, hunter observations are not reliable to determine the actual population size. We developed a mechanistic moose population model that integrated citizen science data and used it at various geographical scales to estimate moose population size between 2012 and 2020. A sensitivity analysis, specifically performed for recruitment, adult sex ratio and calf sex ratio, showed that the simulated population size was most sensitive for variation in recruitment. According to the results, Sweden had a total moose population of -311 000 (+/- 4%) individuals pre-hunt and -228 000 (+/- 4%) post-hunt in 2020. The post-hunt moose abundance has decreased nationwide with 15%, from 0.72 to 0.61 moose per km2 during the 2012 - 2020 period. The present post-hunt moose density was estimated at 0.39, 0.78, 0.84 and 0.54 per km2 for the regions northernmost, northern, central and southern Sweden, respectively. The simulation model can be used for strategic and operative management at various geographical scales and is publicly available. By integrating citizen data with a mechanistic population model, a new low-cost method of estimating population size and relevant population dynamics was established

Älgbete i tid och rum

• Älgens biotopval och betesmönster är föränderliga i tid och rum – t.ex. mellan olika ungskogar och mellan år. • Tillgång och fördelning av olika foderväxter och markens produktionsförmåga påverkar dessa val. • Vanliga händelser som förändrar fodersituationen i landskapet, såsom skogsbruk, storm och brand blir därigenom viktiga för betningens och skogskadornas fördelning. • Snöförhållandena bidrar till en mellanårsvariation i betestryck och skogskador. Resultaten från skadeinventeringar blir därför svåra att använda i lokal förvaltning. • Betestrycket på tall kan förutsägas utifrån information om älgtäthet, fodertillgång och snöförhållanden, men det är svårare att förutsäga bete på vårt- och glasbjörk. • Älgen föredrar vissa trädslag framför andra. Rönn, asp och sälg löper störst risk att betas

Quantitative estimates of tree species selectivity by moose (Alces alces) in a forest landscape

An extensive literature is available on browsing preference for certain tree species. However, useful predictive tools for estimating the impact of deer on forests production and biodiversity can still be improved. A step in that direction is not only to rank preference among tree species but also to quantify the relative risk of being browsed. The foraging selectivity of moose was evaluated using three different statistical methods developed to study habitat utilization. The general pattern for the three methods was consistent. From the results, groups of forage species were clustered and a quantitative index of selectivity was calculated for the groups. The selectivity index showed that rowan (Sorbus aucuparia), willow (Salix ssp.) and aspen (Populus tremula) had a 14 times higher probability of being browsed than a group consisting of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) and downy birch (Betula pubescens), while juniper (Juniperus communis) and silver birch (Betula pendula) had a 3.5 times higher probability than Scots pine and downy birch. Since the most preferred species were the least abundant, one should be cautious about the generality of the index between areas, as it may indicate that preference depends on plant species composition. The method used can easily be applied in forest management. Information on quantitative selectivity indices may improve the possibility of managing moose in accordance with acceptable browsing damage

The pencil eraser swab technique to quantify Cutibacterium acnes on shoulder skin

Introduction: Cutibacterium acnes is the most common cause of postoperative infections in orthopaedic shoulder surgery and is hard to eradicate with current measures. Newer strategies focus on reducing bacterial load on the skin before surgery. Several previous studies have used a large number of both described and undescribed sampling techniques. The purpose of this study was to compare three previously described swab techniques to obtain bacterial cultures: Levine's (L) technique, the Z technique and the pencil eraser swab (PES) technique. Methods: Three consecutive skin swabs were collected from the right shoulder, on 15 healthy male volunteers, using Levine's technique, Z technique and PES technique from each participant. To determine the number of living bacteria, serial dilutions were made, and after culturing for 5 d, viable count (VC) was expressed as CFU/mL (with CFU representing colony-forming unit). Results: The PES technique yielded significantly higher VC than the two others. PES: median 3700 CFU/mL, L: 200 CFU/mL and Z: 220 CFU/mL ( p=0.003). There was no significant difference between the methods regarding the number of positive cultures. PES: 14/15, L: 11/15 and Z: 12/15. Conclusions: There is a need to harmonise sampling techniques of C. acnes in order to compare the efficacy of different measures to reduce the bacterial load on the skin before and during surgery. Of the three tested methods, the PES technique is simple and produces the highest bacterial counts

Prevalence of impaired glucose tolerance and diabetes after gestational diabetes mellitus comparing different cut-off criteria for abnormal glucose tolerance during pregnancy.

Objective. To determine the prevalence of diabetes and impaired glucose tolerance after gestational diabetes mellitus in relation to different categories of glucose tolerance during pregnancy. Design. Prospective study. Setting. Four delivery departments and three hospitals in southern Sweden took part in recruitment and follow-up. Population. Women undergoing a 75 g oral glucose tolerance test during pregnancy delivering in 2003-2005. Methods. At first follow-up, 1-2 years after delivery, 29% of eligible women with abnormal glucose tolerance during pregnancy had an oral glucose tolerance test; 160 with gestational diabetes, 309 with gestational impaired glucose tolerance, in addition to 167 control women. Cut-off levels defining gestational diabetes and impaired glucose tolerance were 2-hour capillary blood glucose levels 9.0 and 7.8 mmol/l or plasma glucose 10.0 and 8.6 mmol/l, respectively. Main outcome measures. Frequency of abnormal test results at follow-up. Results: Diabetes was diagnosed in 11% and impaired glucose tolerance in 24% of women with gestational diabetes vs. 4% and 23% in those with gestational impaired glucose tolerance. Combining women with abnormal test results during pregnancy revealed diabetes or impaired glucose tolerance in 29% as compared to 10% among controls; the odds ratio (95% confidence interval) for having abnormal test results was 3.3 (1.8-5.9) in a multivariate logistic regression analysis. Conclusions: Lowering the cut-off level for gestational diabetes to also include the category of impaired glucose tolerance would identify a high percentage of women with diabetes and impaired glucose tolerance postpartum, they constitute target groups for intervention and/or diabetes prevention

Seizure suppression in kindling epilepsy by intracerebral implants of GABA- but not by noradrenaline-releasing polymer matrices

Gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA)-releasing polymer matrices were implanted bilaterally, immediately dorsal to the substantia nigra, in rats previously kindled in the amygdala. Two days after implantation, rats with GABA-releasing matrices exhibited only focal limbic seizures in response to electrical stimulation, whereas animals with control matrices devoid of GABA had generalized convulsions. GABA release from the polymer matrices was high during the first days after implantation, as demonstrated both in vitro and, using microdialysis, in vivo. The anticonvulsant effect was no longer observed at 7 and 14 days at which time GABA release was found to be low. In a parallel experiment, polymer matrices containing noradrenaline (NA) were implanted bilaterally into the hippocampus of rats with extensive forebrain NA depletion induced by an intraventricular 6-hydroxydopamine injection. No effect on the development of hippocampal kindling was observed, despite extracellular NA levels exceeding those of rats with intrahippocampal locus coeruleus grafts that have previously been shown to retard kindling rate. The results indicate that GABA-releasing implants located in the substantia nigra region can suppress seizure generalization in epilepsy, even in the absence of synapse formation and integration with the host brain. In contrast, the failure of NA-releasing polymer matrices to retard the development of seizures in NA-depleted rats suggests that such an effect can only be exerted by grafts acting through a well-regulated, synaptic release of NA