New methodologies for the estimation of population vulnerability to diseases: a case study of Lassa fever and Ebola in Nigeria and Sierra Leone.

Public health practitioners require measures to evaluate how vulnerable populations are to diseases, especially for zoonoses (i.e. diseases transmitted from animals to humans) given their pandemic potential. These measures would be valuable to support strategic and operational decision making and allocation of resources. Although vulnerability is well defined for natural hazards, for public health threats the concept remains undetermined. Here, we develop new methodologies to: (i) quantify the impact of zoonotic diseases and the capacity of countries to cope with these diseases, and (ii) combine these two measures (impact and capacity) into one overall vulnerability indicator. The adaptive capacity is calculated from estimations of disease mortality, although the method can be adapted for diseases with no or low mortality but high morbidity. As an example, we focused on the vulnerability of Nigeria and Sierra Leone to Lassa Fever and Ebola. We develop a simple analytical form that can be used to estimate vulnerability scores for different spatial units of interest, e.g. countries or regions. We show how some populations can be highly vulnerable despite low impact threats. We finally outline future research to more comprehensively inform vulnerability with the incorporation of relevant factors depicting local heterogeneities (e.g. bio-physical and socio-economic factors). This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'. This theme issue is linked with the earlier issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'.FRSF Pump Prime Gran

The Effect of Liquid Viscosity on the Rise Velocity of Taylor Bubbles in Small Diameter Bubble Column

The rise velocity of Taylor bubbles in small diameter bubble column was measured via cross-correlation between two planes of time-averaged void fraction data obtained from the electrical capacitance tomography (ECT). This was subsequently compared with the rise velocity obtained from the high-speed camera, manual time series analysis and likewise empirical models. The inertia, viscous and gravitational forces were identified as forces, which could influence the rise velocity. Fluid flow analysis was carried out using slug Reynolds number, Froude number and inverse dimensionless viscosity, which are important dimensionless parameters influencing the rise velocity of Taylor bubbles in different liquid viscosities, with the parameters being functions of the fluid properties and column diameter. It was found that the Froude number decreases with an increase in viscosity with a variation in flow as superficial gas velocity increases with reduction in rise velocity. A dominant effect of viscous and gravitational forces over inertia forces was obtained, which showed an agreement with Stokes law, where drag force is directly proportional to viscosity. Hence, the drag force increases as viscosity increases (5 < 100 < 1000 < 5000 mPa s), leading to a decrease in the rise velocity of Taylor bubbles. It was concluded that the rise velocity of Taylor bubbles decreases with an increase in liquid viscosity and, on the other hand, increases with an increase in superficial gas velocity

Meta-model assisted calibration of computational fluid dynamics simulation models.

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is a computer-based analysis of the dynamics of fluid flow, and it is widely used in chemical and process engineering applications. However, computation usually becomes a herculean task when calibration of the CFD models with experimental data or sensitivity analysis of the output relative to the inputs is required. This is due to the simulation process being highly computationally intensive, often requiring a large number of simulation runs, with a single simulation run taking hours or days to be completed. Hence, in this research project, the kriging meta-modelling method was coupled with expected improvement (EI) global optimisation approach to address the CFD model calibration challenge. In addition, a kriging meta-model based sensitivity analysis technique was implemented to study the model parameter input-output relationship. A novel EI measure was developed for the sum of squared errors (SSE) which conforms to a generalised chi-square distribution, where existing normal distribution-based EI measures are not applicable. This novel EI measure suggested the values of CFD model parameters to simulate with, hence minimising SSE and improving the match between simulation and experiments. To test the proposed methodology, a non-CFD numerical simulation case of the semi-batch reactor was considered as a case study which confirmed a saving in computational time, and an improvement of the simulation model with the actual plant data. The usefulness of the developed method has been subsequently demonstrated through a CFD case study of a single-phase flow in both a straight type and convergent-divergent type annular jet pump, where both a single turbulent model parameter, C_μ and two turbulent model parameters, C_μ and C_2ε where considered for calibration. Sensitivity analysis was subsequently based on C_μ as the input parameter. In calibration using both single and two model parameters, a significant improvement in the agreement with experimental data was obtained. The novel method gave a significant reduction in simulation computational time as compared to traditional CFD. A new correlation was proposed relating C_μ to the flow ratio, which could serve as a guide for future simulations. The meta-model based calibration aids exploration of different parameter combinations which would have been computationally challenging using CFD. In addition, computational time was significantly reduced with kriging-assisted sensitivity analysis studies which explored effect of different C_μ values on the output, the pressure coefficient. The numerical simulation case of the semi-batch reactor was also used as a basis of comparison between the previous EI measure and the newly proposed EI measure, which overall revealed that the latter gave a significant improvement at fewer number of simulation runs as compared to the former. The research studies carried out has hence been able to propose and successfully demonstrate the use of a novel methodology for faster calibration and sensitivity analysis studies of computational fluid dynamics simulations. This is essential in the design, analysis and optimisation of chemical and process engineering systems

Meta-model assisted calibration of computational fluid dynamics simulation models.

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is a computer-based analysis of the dynamics of fluid flow, and it is widely used in chemical and process engineering applications. However, computation usually becomes a herculean task when calibration of the CFD models with experimental data or sensitivity analysis of the output relative to the inputs is required. This is due to the simulation process being highly computationally intensive, often requiring a large number of simulation runs, with a single simulation run taking hours or days to be completed. Hence, in this research project, the kriging meta-modelling method was coupled with expected improvement (EI) global optimisation approach to address the CFD model calibration challenge. In addition, a kriging meta-model based sensitivity analysis technique was implemented to study the model parameter input-output relationship. A novel EI measure was developed for the sum of squared errors (SSE) which conforms to a generalised chi-square distribution, where existing normal distribution-based EI measures are not applicable. This novel EI measure suggested the values of CFD model parameters to simulate with, hence minimising SSE and improving the match between simulation and experiments. To test the proposed methodology, a non-CFD numerical simulation case of the semi-batch reactor was considered as a case study which confirmed a saving in computational time, and an improvement of the simulation model with the actual plant data. The usefulness of the developed method has been subsequently demonstrated through a CFD case study of a single-phase flow in both a straight type and convergent-divergent type annular jet pump, where both a single turbulent model parameter, C_μ and two turbulent model parameters, C_μ and C_2ε where considered for calibration. Sensitivity analysis was subsequently based on C_μ as the input parameter. In calibration using both single and two model parameters, a significant improvement in the agreement with experimental data was obtained. The novel method gave a significant reduction in simulation computational time as compared to traditional CFD. A new correlation was proposed relating C_μ to the flow ratio, which could serve as a guide for future simulations. The meta-model based calibration aids exploration of different parameter combinations which would have been computationally challenging using CFD. In addition, computational time was significantly reduced with kriging-assisted sensitivity analysis studies which explored effect of different C_μ values on the output, the pressure coefficient. The numerical simulation case of the semi-batch reactor was also used as a basis of comparison between the previous EI measure and the newly proposed EI measure, which overall revealed that the latter gave a significant improvement at fewer number of simulation runs as compared to the former. The research studies carried out has hence been able to propose and successfully demonstrate the use of a novel methodology for faster calibration and sensitivity analysis studies of computational fluid dynamics simulations. This is essential in the design, analysis and optimisation of chemical and process engineering systems

Kriging meta-model assisted calibration of computational fluid dynamics models

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is a simulation technique widely used in chemical and process engineering applications. However, computation has become a bottleneck when calibration of CFD models with experimental data (also known as model parameter estimation) is needed. In this research, the kriging meta-modelling approach (also termed Gaussian process) was coupled with expected improvement (EI) to address this challenge. A new EI measure was developed for the sum of squared errors (SSE) which conforms to a generalised chi-square distribution and hence existing normal distribution-based EI measures are not applicable. The new EI measure is to suggest the CFD model parameter to simulate with, hence minimising SSE and improving match between simulation and experiments. The usefulness of the developed method was demonstrated through a case study of a single-phase flow in both a straight-type and a convergent-divergent-type annular jet pump, where a single model parameter was calibrated with experimental data

Kriging meta-model assisted calibration of computational fluid dynamics models

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is a simulation technique widely used in chemical and process engineering applications. However, computation has become a bottleneck when calibration of CFD models with experimental data (also known as model parameter estimation) is needed. In this research, the kriging meta-modelling approach (also termed Gaussian process) was coupled with expected improvement (EI) to address this challenge. A new EI measure was developed for the sum of squared errors (SSE) which conforms to a generalised chi-square distribution and hence existing normal distribution-based EI measures are not applicable. The new EI measure is to suggest the CFD model parameter to simulate with, hence minimising SSE and improving match between simulation and experiments. The usefulness of the developed method was demonstrated through a case study of a single-phase flow in both a straight-type and a convergent-divergent-type annular jet pump, where a single model parameter was calibrated with experimental data

Experimental investigation of the effect of liquid viscosity on slug flow in small diameter bubble column

The effect of liquid viscosity on slug flow in a 50 mm diameter bubble column was investigated experimentally using air-silicone oil as operating fluid with silicone oil of viscosities 5, 100, 1000 and 5000 mPa.s. Data was collected using Electrical Capacitance Tomography (ECT), a non-intrusive advanced instrumentation measuring technique and the high Speed Video Camera, through which the slug parameters such as length of Taylor bubbles and liquid slug, void fraction in Taylor bubbles and liquid slug, slug frequency, film thickness and pressure gradient in the slug, were measured and analyzed. The analysis was done using the void fraction time series, probability density function and power spectral density plots. Superficial gas velocities of 0.02≤Ugs≤0.361 m/s were used in the experiment. It was also observed that as viscosity increases, slug frequency, structure velocity, length of liquid slug, void fraction in liquid slug and void fraction in Taylor bubbles decreases; while the length of Taylor bubble, film thickness and pressure gradient in the slug increases

New methodologies for the estimation of population vulnerability to diseases: a case study of Lassa fever and Ebola in Nigeria and Sierra Leone

Public health practitioners require measures to evaluate how vulnerable populations are to diseases, especially for zoonoses (i.e. diseases transmitted from animals to humans) given their pandemic potential. These measures would be valuable to support strategic and operational decision making and allocation of resources. But, vulnerability is well defined for natural hazards, for public health threats the concept remains undetermined. Here, we developed new methodologies to: (i) quantify the impact of zoonotic diseases and the capacity of countries to cope with these diseases, and (ii) combine these two measures (impact and capacity) into one overall vulnerability indicator. The adaptive capacity is calculated from estimations of disease mortality although the method can be adapted for diseases with no or low mortality but high morbidity. As example, we focused on the vulnerability of Nigeria and Sierra Leone to Lassa Fever and Ebola. We developed a simple analytical form that can be used to estimate vulnerability scores for different spatial units of interest, e.g. countries or regions. We showed how some populations can be highly vulnerable despite low impact threats. We finally outlined future research to more comprehensively inform vulnerability with the incorporation of relevant factors depicting local heterogeneities (e.g. bio-physical and socio-economic factors)

Meta-modelling in chemical process system engineering

Use of computational fluid dynamics to model chemical process system has received much attention in recent years. However, even with state-of-the-art computing, it is still difficult to perform simulations with many physical factors taken into accounts. Hence, translation of such models into computationally easy surrogate models is necessary for successful applications of such high fidelity models to process design optimization, scale-up and model predictive control. In this work, the methodology, statistical background and past applications to chemical processes of meta-model development were reviewed. The objective is to help interested researchers be familiarized with the work that has been carried out and problems that remain to be investigated

Meta-modelling in chemical process system engineering

Use of computational fluid dynamics to model chemical process system has received much attention in recent years. However, even with state-of-the-art computing, it is still difficult to perform simulations with many physical factors taken into accounts. Hence, translation of such models into computationally easy surrogate models is necessary for successful applications of such high fidelity models to process design optimization, scale-up and model predictive control. In this work, the methodology, statistical background and past applications to chemical processes of meta-model development were reviewed. The objective is to help interested researchers be familiarized with the work that has been carried out and problems that remain to be investigated