The Geographical Distribution and Influencing Factors of COVID-19 in China

The study of the spatial differentiation of COVID-19 in cities and its driving mechanism is helpful to reveal the spatial distribution pattern, transmission mechanism and diffusion model, and evolution mechanism of the epidemic and can lay the foundation for constructing the spatial dynamics model of the epidemic and provide theoretical basis for the policy design, spatial planning and implementation of epidemic prevention and control and social governance. Geodetector (Origin version, Beijing, China) is a great tool for analysis of spatial differentiation and its influencing factors, and it provides decision support for differentiated policy design and its implementation in executing the city-specific policies. Using factor detection and interaction analysis of Geodetector, 15 indicators of economic, social, ecological, and environmental dimensions were integrated, and 143 cities were selected for the empirical research in China. The research shows that, first of all, risks of both infection and death show positive spatial autocorrelation, but the geographical distribution of local spatial autocorrelation differs significantly between the two. Secondly, the inequalities in urban economic, social, and residential environments interact with COVID-19 spatial heterogeneity, with stronger explanatory power especially when multidimensional inequalities are superimposed. Thirdly, the spatial distribution and spread of COVID-19 are highly spatially heterogeneous and correlated due to the complex influence of multiple factors, with factors such as Area of Urban Construction Land, GDP, Industrial Smoke and Dust Emission, and Expenditure having the strongest influence, the factors such as Area of Green, Number of Hospital Beds and Parks, and Industrial NOx Emissions having unignorable influence, while the factors such as Number of Free Parks and Industrial Enterprises, Per-GDP, and Population Density play an indirect role mainly by means of interaction. Fourthly, the factor interaction effect from the infected person’s perspective mainly shows a nonlinear enhancement effect, that is, the joint influence of the two factors is greater than the sum of their direct influences; but from the perspective of the dead, it mainly shows a two-factor enhancement effect, that is, the joint influence of the two factors is greater than the maximum of their direct influences but less than their sum. Fifthly, some suggestions are put forward from the perspectives of building a healthy, resilient, safe, and smart city, providing valuable reference and decision basis for city governments to carry out differentiated policy design

Spatial Pattern and Driving Mechanism of Urban–Rural Income Gap in Gansu Province of China

The urban–rural income gap is a principal indicator for evaluating the sustainable development of a region, and even the comprehensive strength of a country. The study of the urban–rural income gap and its changing spatial patterns and influence factors is an important basis for the formulation of integrated urban–rural development planning. In this paper, we conduct an empirical study on 84 county-level cities in Gansu Province by using various analysis tools, such as GIS, GeoDetector and Boston Consulting Group Matrix. The findings show that: (1) The urban–rural income gap in Gansu province is at a high level in spatial correlation and agglomeration, leading to the formation of a stepped and solidified spatial pattern. (2) Different factors vary greatly in influence, for example, per capita Gross Domestic Product, alleviating poverty policy and urbanization rate are the most prominent, followed by those such as floating population, added value of secondary industry and number of Internet users. (3) The driving mechanism becomes increasingly complex, with the factor interaction effect of residents’ income dominated by bifactor enhancement, and that of the urban–rural income gap dominated by non-linear enhancement. (4) The 84 county-level cities in Gansu Province are classified into four types of early warning zones, and differentiated policy suggestions are made in this paper

Change Characteristics and Multilevel Influencing Factors of Real Estate Inventory—Case Studies from 35 Key Cities in China

High inventory is a common issue in urban real estate markets in many countries, posing a threat to the sustainable development of macroeconomics and society. This study built an analytical framework for the evolution of real estate inventory and its driving mechanisms and conducted an empirical study on 35 key cities in China. The findings show that, first, China has a huge real estate inventory with significant spatial heterogeneity. Second, the real estate inventory in China first rises and then falls, presenting an inverted U-shaped change trend; however, the spatial heterogeneity first falls and then rises, characterized by a U-shaped evolutionary change. Third, the present characteristics and evolutionary paths vary among different types of real estate inventory, mainly showing growth, stability, and inverted U-shaped changes. Fourth, the influencing factors of real estate inventory are increasingly diversified, and different factor pairs show bifactor-enhanced and nonlinearly-enhanced interaction effects, with a more intricate and complex driving mechanism. Fifth, four types of policy areas were divided according to the Boston Consulting Group Matrix, and it is recommended that the design of de-stocking policies should be dominated by “key factors” for cities in the stars and cows policy areas, while “important factors” and “auxiliary factors” should be equally emphasized for cities in the question policy area; the cities in the dogs policy area should keep the status quo as much as possible with avoidance of undesirable or excessive interventions

Research on the Evaluation of Real Estate Inventory Management in China

Inventory management not only determines the health of the real estate market development, but also affects the regional economy and the capacity of sustainable social development. In this paper we use the DPSIR framework to integrate multi-dimensional influence factors, such as economic, social, and environmental factors, to construct a real estate inventory management performance evaluation and obstacle diagnosis model, and conduct an empirical study on 31 Chinese provinces and cities. The results show that: first, China’s real estate inventory is huge in size, with significant spatial heterogeneity and agglomeration; second, China’s real estate inventory management performance is unsatisfactory and still shows no improvement despite the strong policy intervention of the central and local governments; third, the obstacle factors of real estate inventory management are becoming increasingly diversified and complicated, with great differences among provinces—significantly, Profits of Real Estate Enterprises, Disposable Income of Urban Residents, Financial Revenue, Per Capital GDP, Resident Population, Gross Domestic Product, Total Retail Sales of Social Consumer Goods, Financial Expense, and Loans Balance of Financial Institutes are critical obstacle factors; and fourth, it is suggested that, on the basis of mastering the actual conditions of supply and demand in the real estate market, differentiated and precise response strategies should be formulated by integrating near-term and long-term goals, direct and indirect forces, and administrative and market instruments

Spatio-Temporal Evolution Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Urban Service-Industry Land in China

The level of service-industry development has become an important symbol of the competitiveness and influence of cities. The study of the dynamic evolution characteristics and patterns of urban service-industry land use, the driving factors and their interactions is helpful to provide a basis for decision making in policy design and land use planning for the development of service economies. In this study we have conducted an empirical study of China, based on the methods of spatial cold- and hot-spot analysis, Tapio’s decoupling model, and GeoDetector. We found that: (1) the scales of land use, output efficiencies and development intensities of service-industries are increasing with a trend that takes the form of a “J”, “U” and “inverted U”, respectively; (2) Spatial variabilities and agglomerations are significant, with a stable spatial pattern of the scale of service-industry land use, and a gradient in the distribution of cold- and hot-spots. The dominant spatial units of output efficiency and development intensity have changed from low and lower to high and higher, and the cold- and hot-spots gather in clusters; (3) The development of service-industries is highly dependent on the input of land-resources, and only a few provinces are in a state of strong decoupling, while most are in a state of weak decoupling, with quite a few still in a state of expansive coupling, expansive negative decoupling, or even strong negative decoupling; (4) There are many driving factors for land use changes in the service-industry, with increasingly complicated and diversified relationships between each other, ranked in intensity as the scale effect > informatization > globalization > industrialization > urbanization

Dynamics, Risk and Management Performance of Urban Real Estate Inventory in Yangtze River Delta

(1) Background: Inventory management is a key point in the achievement of the virtuous cycle and sustainable development of the real estate industry. In response to the practical needs of city-based policies, this paper constructs a new research approach of “evolution dynamics—risk analysis—performance evaluation—policy design” of real estate inventory, and conducts a case study on the Yangtze River Delta. (2) Methods: This paper studies the change characteristics, trends and spatial patterns of real estate inventory changes in the Yangtze River Delta based on Geographic Information System software, and quantitatively evaluates the risk level and management performance of real estate inventory by introducing the Boston Consulting Group Matrix for corporate management and the Super- Data Envelopment Analysis Model for operations research, providing a basis for policy design. (3) Results: First, the “destocking” policy has gained results to some extent and diversified the inventory evolution, thus alleviating or curbing the negative trend in most cities. Second, the real estate inventory in the Yangtze River Delta is divided into high, low, potential and zero pressure zones by risk levels, and the proportion of cities with increased, decreased and unchanged risk levels is essentially the same. Third, the average real estate inventory management performance index has been steadily improving, but overall, it is still unsatisfactory, with cities in an effective state accounting for 40% and below for a long time. Fourth, real estate inventory and its management performance both show significant spatial effects, with cold and hot spot cities characterized by a “center-periphery” spatial pattern in geographical distribution, and the cities in the study area are classified into four types: super-efficiency, efficiency, inefficiency, and super-inefficiency. Fifth, the real estate inventory in most cities is continuing to grow positively, and a small number of cities have been in the high-risk zone for a long time or become new members of the high-risk zone, making the government and enterprises still faced up with great pressure and challenges in inventory management with the risk level further increased but management performance growing slowly. (4) Conclusions: The study area is divided into four types of policy areas, that is, red key area, yellow important area, green auxiliary area, and path-dependent area, and suggestions for optimization are made from the perspectives of risk control, performance improvement, benchmarking recommendation, and redundancy governance, providing a basis for the government’s real estate inventory management policy design and the enterprise’s high-quality development decision

Geographical Pattern Evolution of Health Resources in China: Spatio-Temporal Dynamics and Spatial Mismatch

(1) Background: The rational allocation of limited medical resources is the premise of safeguarding the public health. Especially since the outbreak of COVID-19, the evolution dynamics and spatial mismatch of medical resources have been a focal and frontier issue in academic discussions. (2) Methods: Based on the competitive state model and spatial mismatch index, this paper uses GIS and Geodetector spatial analysis methods and three typical indicators of hospitals, doctors, and beds to conduct an empirical study on the evolutionary characteristics and degree of mismatch in the geographic pattern of health resources in China from 2010 to 2020 (the data are from official publications issued by the National Bureau of statistics in China), in two dimensions of resource supply (economic carrying capacity) and demand (potential demand or need of residents). (3) Results: The spatial pattern of health resources at the provincial level in China has been firmly established for a long time, and the children and elderly population, health care government investment, and service industry added value are the key factors influencing the geographical distribution of health resources. The interaction between the different influence factors is dominated by bifactor enhancement, and about 30–40% of the factor pairs are in a nonlinear enhancement relationship. Hospital, doctor, and bed evolution trends and the magnitude and speed of their changes vary widely in spatial differentiation, but all are characterized by a high level of geographic agglomeration, heterogeneity, and gradient. Dynamic matching is the mainstream of development, while the geographical distribution of negative and positive mismatch shows strong spatial agglomeration and weak spatial autocorrelation. The cold and hot spots with evolution trend and space mismatch are highly clustered, shaping a center-periphery or gradient-varying spatial structure. (4) Conclusions: Despite the variability in the results of the analyses by different dimensions and indicators, the mismatch of health resources in China should not be ignored. According to the mismatch types and change trend, and following the geographic differentiation and spatial agglomeration patterns, this paper constructs a policy design framework of “regionalized governance-classified management”, in line with the concept of spatial adaptation and spatial justice, in order to provide a decision making basis for the government to optimize the allocation of health resources and carry out health spatial planning

Dynamics, Risk and Management Performance of Urban Real Estate Inventory in Yangtze River Delta

(1) Background: Inventory management is a key point in the achievement of the virtuous cycle and sustainable development of the real estate industry. In response to the practical needs of city-based policies, this paper constructs a new research approach of “evolution dynamics—risk analysis—performance evaluation—policy design” of real estate inventory, and conducts a case study on the Yangtze River Delta. (2) Methods: This paper studies the change characteristics, trends and spatial patterns of real estate inventory changes in the Yangtze River Delta based on Geographic Information System software, and quantitatively evaluates the risk level and management performance of real estate inventory by introducing the Boston Consulting Group Matrix for corporate management and the Super- Data Envelopment Analysis Model for operations research, providing a basis for policy design. (3) Results: First, the “destocking” policy has gained results to some extent and diversified the inventory evolution, thus alleviating or curbing the negative trend in most cities. Second, the real estate inventory in the Yangtze River Delta is divided into high, low, potential and zero pressure zones by risk levels, and the proportion of cities with increased, decreased and unchanged risk levels is essentially the same. Third, the average real estate inventory management performance index has been steadily improving, but overall, it is still unsatisfactory, with cities in an effective state accounting for 40% and below for a long time. Fourth, real estate inventory and its management performance both show significant spatial effects, with cold and hot spot cities characterized by a “center-periphery” spatial pattern in geographical distribution, and the cities in the study area are classified into four types: super-efficiency, efficiency, inefficiency, and super-inefficiency. Fifth, the real estate inventory in most cities is continuing to grow positively, and a small number of cities have been in the high-risk zone for a long time or become new members of the high-risk zone, making the government and enterprises still faced up with great pressure and challenges in inventory management with the risk level further increased but management performance growing slowly. (4) Conclusions: The study area is divided into four types of policy areas, that is, red key area, yellow important area, green auxiliary area, and path-dependent area, and suggestions for optimization are made from the perspectives of risk control, performance improvement, benchmarking recommendation, and redundancy governance, providing a basis for the government’s real estate inventory management policy design and the enterprise’s high-quality development decision

A Dynamic Performance and Differentiation Management Policy for Urban Construction Land Use Change in Gansu, China

Making efforts to promote rationalized urban construction land change, distribution, allocation, and its performance is the core task of territory spatial planning and a complex issue that the government must face and solve. Based on the Boston Consulting Group matrix, a decoupling model, and a GIS tool, this paper constructs a new tool that integrates “dynamic analysis + performance evaluation + policy design” for urban construction land. We reached the following findings from an empirical study of Gansu, China: (1) Urban construction land shows diversified changes, where expansion is dominant and shrink cannot be ignored. (2) Most cities are in the non-ideal state of LH (Low-High) and LL (Low-Low), with a small number in the state of HH (High-High) and HL (High-Low). (3) Urban construction land change and population growth, economic development, and income increase are in a discordant relationship, mostly in strong negative decoupling and expansive negative decoupling. (4) The spatial heterogeneity of urban construction land change and its performance are at a high level, and they show a slow upward trend. Additionally, the cold and the hot spots show obvious spatial clustering characteristics, and the spatial pattern of different indexes is different to some extent. (5) It is suggested that in territory spatial planning Gansu should divide the space into four policy areas—incremental, inventory, a reduction development policy area, and a transformation leading policy area—to implement differentiated management policies and to form a new spatial governance system of “control by zoning and management by class”. The change of urban construction land, characterized by dynamics and complexity, is a direct mapping of the urban growth process. The new tools constructed in this paper will help to reveal the laws of urban development and to improve the accuracy of territory spatial planning in the new era. They are of great theoretical significance and practical value for promoting high-quality and sustainable urban development