A Short Scale for Measuring Political Secularism

As religiousness is declining across democracies, scientific interest in secular orientations and their political implications is growing. One specific and particularly important aspect of secular attitudes is political secularism. Political secularism is not merely the absence of religiousness, but rather a world view which holds that religious beliefs should play no role in politics. While there are hundreds of survey instruments that measure the strength and content of religiousness, there is no comparable measure that taps into political secularism. In this research note, I briefly review the concept of political secularism and present a cluster of items which target it. Utilizing data from four large population representative samples taken from the eastern and western states of Germany, I use confirmatory factor analysis to show that these items form a short but internally consistent scale. This scale also displays convergent and discriminant validity. It may be readily used in future surveys

Despite hostile German public opinion, a deal on Greece may still be politically feasible for Angela Merkel

Following the Greek elections on 25 January, the Greek government has attempted to negotiate a deal with other European states, notably Germany, over the country’s debt. But how might opinions within Germany affect the prospects of such a deal being reached? Kai Arzheimer writes on German public opinion and the views of German political decision-makers on the issue. He notes that while German citizens are generally hostile to taking a more conciliatory approach toward Greece, polling also indicates that it is not assigned a high level of importance by voters, ensuring that some form of compromise would still be politically feasible for the German government

Germany’s new anti-euro party is unlikely to be a key player in September’s Federal Elections.

The formation of a new anti-euro party, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), has generated significant media attention ahead of Germany’s Federal Elections in September. Kai Arzheimer assesses the party’s electoral prospects, arguing that despite the media coverage, the AfD will find it difficult to gain substantial support in the four months leading up to the election. Current opinion polls suggest only three per cent of the electorate will support the party, falling short of the five per cent needed to gain seats in the Bundestag

The AfD: Finally a Successful Right-Wing Populist Eurosceptic Party for Germany?

Within less than two years of being founded by disgruntled members of the governing CDU, the newly formed Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has already performed extraordinarily well in the 2013 general election, the 2014 EP election, and a string of state elections. Highly unusually by German standards, it campaigned for an end to all efforts to save the euro and argued for a reconfiguration of Germany’s foreign policy. This seems to chime with the recent surge in far-right voting in Western Europe, and the AfD was subsequently described as right-wing populist and Europhobe

The AfD’s second place in Mecklenburg-West Pomerania illustrates the challenge facing Merkel in 2017

Angela Merkel’s CDU came third behind the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the German Social Democrats (SPD) in elections in Mecklenburg-West Pomerania on 4 September. Kai Arzheimer writes that while the result was not unexpected and the CDU still has a lead in national polling, the election underlines the challenge facing Merkel as she seeks reelection in the next German federal elections in 2017

Success for the AfD at the European Parliament elections would entrench their place in the German party system

At the 2013 German federal elections, the Eurosceptic Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) only narrowly fell short of the five per cent electoral threshold required to gain representation in the Bundestag. Ahead of the European Parliament elections in May, Kai Arzheimer assesses the party’s prospects. He notes that there is a significant gap between the party’s leadership and its support base, with the AfD owing much of its success to disaffected voters. Nevertheless the lower electoral threshold at European Parliament elections should see them gain a presence in the European Parliament which could help establish their place in the German party system

Look ahead to 2017: the German federal election

To mark the end of the year, we’ve asked our contributors to preview some of the potential stories of 2017. In this contribution, Kai Arzheimer looks ahead to the German federal election, which is due to be held in the autumn

German federal elections preview: the parties and their campaigns

With Germany heading to the polls for federal elections tomorrow, Kai Arzheimer offers a final preview of the vote and outlines the main issues facing Germany’s major parties. He writes that as Angela Merkel and the CDU/CSU are comfortably ahead in the polls, the main issue will be whether their current coalition partner, the FDP, can clear the country’s five per cent electoral threshold. Even if this fails to happen, however, Angela Merkel is still almost certain to lead the next government, albeit in a grand coalition with the SPD

Die Wirkung materieller Incentives auf den Rücklauf einer schriftlichen Panelbefragung

'Im vorliegenden Aufsatz untersuchen wir den Einfluß materieller Incentives auf die Ausschöpfungs- und die Haltequote einer zweiwelligen schriftlichen Panelbefragung. Dabei zeigt sich, daß Incentives die Ausschöpfungsquote signifikant erhöhen, wobei dieser Effekt in der ersten Panelwelle starker ausfällt als in der zweiten. Darüber hinaus können wir zeigen, daß kein Hysteresis-Effekt existiert und die beiden Incentives unabhängig voneinander wirken. Effekte der Incentives auf die Stichprobenzusammensetzung lassen sich nicht nachweisen.' (Autorenreferat)'In the present paper we investigate the influence that material incentives have on the re sponse rate and the panel mortality of a two-wave mail surveypanel. We can show that incentives increase the response rate significantly, this effect being stronger in the first panel wave than in the second. Furthermore, we can demonstrate that there is no hysteresis effect and that the effect of one incentive is independent of the other one. There is no evidence of incentive effects on the sample composition.' (author's abstract)

Die Grünen und der Benzinpreis: die Wählerschaft von BÜNDNIS 90/ Die Grünen im Vorfeld der Bundestagswahl 1998

'Dieser Aufsatz untersucht die Auswirkungen, die die Forderung der Partei BÜNDNIS 90/DIE GRÜNEN nach einer sukzessiven Erhöhung des Benzinpreises auf deren Unterstützung durch die Wähler hatte. Unter Verwendung der täglichen OMNITEL-Befragungen von FORSA, die seit kurzem über das Zentralarchiv verfügbar sind, wird gezeigt, daß mit großer Wahrscheinlichkeit ein ursächlicher Zusammenhang zwischen dem 5-Mark-Beschluß der GRÜNEN und ihrem deutlich geringeren Wählerrückhalt seit der ersten Hälfte des Jahres 1998 besteht. Die Ergebnisse dieser Analysen werden zudem in den Kontext der jüngsten Kontroversen um die Determinanten der Wahlentscheidung zugunsten der GRÜNEN gestellt.' (Autorenreferat)'This essay examines the consequences, that the demand of the party BÜNDNIS 90/ DIE GRÜNEN for a gradual rise of the gasoline price had on its support by the voters. By use of the daily OMNITEL-surveys conducted by FORSA, which are recently available through the Zentralarchiv, it is shown, that with a high probability a causal relationship exists between the Green's 5-Mark-resolution and their evident lesser voters' support since the first half of the year 1998. The results of these analyses are put further in the context of the latest controversy on the determinants of the voting decision in favor of the Greens.' (author's abstract)