Correcting for Antibody Waning in Cumulative Incidence Estimation from Sequential Serosurveys.

Serosurveys are a widely used tool to estimate the cumulative incidence, i.e. the fraction of a population that have been infected by a given pathogen. These surveys rely on serological assays that measure the level of pathogen-specific antibodies. Because antibody levels are waning, the fraction of previously infected individuals that have sero-reverted increases with time past infection. To avoid underestimating the true cumulative incidence, it is therefore essential to correct for waning antibody levels. We present an empirically-supported approach for sero-reversion correction in cumulative incidence estimation when sequential serosurveys are conducted in the context of a newly emerging infectious disease. The correction is based on the observed dynamics of antibody titers in sero-positive cases and validated using several in silico test scenarios. Furthermore, through this approach we revise a previous cumulative incidence estimate, which relies on the assumption of an exponentially-declining probability of sero-reversion over time, of SARS-CoV-2 of 76% in Manaus, Brazil, by October 2020 to 47.6% (43.5% - 53.5%). This estimate has implications e.g. for the proximity to herd immunity in Manaus in late 2020

Distinct conformations of the HIV-1 V3 loop crown are targetable for broad neutralization.

The V3 loop of the HIV-1 envelope (Env) protein elicits a vigorous, but largely non-neutralizing antibody response directed to the V3-crown, whereas rare broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) target the V3-base. Challenging this view, we present V3-crown directed broadly neutralizing Designed Ankyrin Repeat Proteins (bnDs) matching the breadth of V3-base bnAbs. While most bnAbs target prefusion Env, V3-crown bnDs bind open Env conformations triggered by CD4 engagement. BnDs achieve breadth by focusing on highly conserved residues that are accessible in two distinct V3 conformations, one of which resembles CCR5-bound V3. We further show that these V3-crown conformations can, in principle, be attacked by antibodies. Supporting this conclusion, analysis of antibody binding activity in the Swiss 4.5 K HIV-1 cohort (n = 4,281) revealed a co-evolution of V3-crown reactivities and neutralization breadth. Our results indicate a role of V3-crown responses and its conformational preferences in bnAb development to be considered in preventive and therapeutic approaches

Analytic philosophy for biomedical research: the imperative of applying yesterday's timeless messages to today's impasses

The mantra that "the best way to predict the future is to invent it" (attributed to the computer scientist Alan Kay) exemplifies some of the expectations from the technical and innovative sides of biomedical research at present. However, for technical advancements to make real impacts both on patient health and genuine scientific understanding, quite a number of lingering challenges facing the entire spectrum from protein biology all the way to randomized controlled trials should start to be overcome. The proposal in this chapter is that philosophy is essential in this process. By reviewing select examples from the history of science and philosophy, disciplines which were indistinguishable until the mid-nineteenth century, I argue that progress toward the many impasses in biomedicine can be achieved by emphasizing theoretical work (in the true sense of the word 'theory') as a vital foundation for experimental biology. Furthermore, a philosophical biology program that could provide a framework for theoretical investigations is outlined

Assessing the danger of self-sustained HIV epidemics in heterosexuals by population based phylogenetic cluster analysis.

Assessing the danger of transition of HIV transmission from a concentrated to a generalized epidemic is of major importance for public health. In this study, we develop a phylogeny-based statistical approach to address this question. As a case study, we use this to investigate the trends and determinants of HIV transmission among Swiss heterosexuals. We extract the corresponding transmission clusters from a phylogenetic tree. To capture the incomplete sampling, the delayed introduction of imported infections to Switzerland, and potential factors associated with basic reproductive number R0, we extend the branching process model to infer transmission parameters. Overall, the R0 is estimated to be 0.44 (95%-confidence interval 0.42-0.46) and it is decreasing by 11% per 10 years (4%-17%). Our findings indicate rather diminishing HIV transmission among Swiss heterosexuals far below the epidemic threshold. Generally, our approach allows to assess the danger of self-sustained epidemics from any viral sequence data

Correlates of broadly neutralizing antibody development

PURPOSE OF REVIEW Broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) are considered a key component of an effective HIV-1 vaccine, but despite intensive efforts, induction of bnAbs by vaccination has thus far not been possible. Potent bnAb activity is rare in natural infection and a deeper understanding of factors that promote or limit bnAb evolution is critical to guide bnAb vaccine development. This review reflects on recent key discoveries on correlates of bnAb development and discusses what further insights are needed to move forward. RECENT FINDINGS An increasing number of parameters have been implicated to influence bnAb development in natural infection. Most recent findings highlight a range of immune factors linked with bnAb evolution. Novel approaches have brought exciting progress in defining signatures of the viral envelope associated with bnAb activity. SUMMARY Focused efforts of recent years have unraveled a multiply layered process of HIV-1 bnAb development. As it is understood today, bnAb evolution can be triggered and influenced by a range of factors and several different pathways may exist how bnAb induction and maturation can occur. To capitalize on the gained knowledge, future research needs to validate factors to identify independent drivers of bnAb induction to advance vaccine design