4,128 research outputs found
Identifying the Signs of Currency Speculation in Hong Kong's Linked exchange Rate
This paper identifies the ex ante factors of currency speculation based on the experience of Hong Kongâs three episodes in 1988, 1998 and 2007. The dynamic conditional correlation models are used to study the inter-temporal interactions among the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Index futures and exchange rate difference. The logistic model is applied to study the probability of currency speculation. The empirical results indicate that unusual movements in the exchange rate difference, Hang Seng Index premium and open interest of futures contracts can be found in the period prior to and during currency speculations. In addition, the conditional correlation between stock market and exchange rate market declined sharply during the periods of currency speculation. The paper traces the disposition of the speculators.Currency speculation, linked exchange rate, Hong Kong
The Optimal Level and Impact of Internal Factors on Growth
This paper empirically uses data from the world economy to show that performance of domestic factors are equally important to external factors when comes to growth. Various external and domestic factors are used to construct two separate indices and the principal component method is applied in the analysis. The empirical results show that given a different level of performance in the economyâs external factors, a higher performance in the internal factors will produce a higher growth rate. When the performance of an economyâs internal factors is extremely low, it would be appropriate for that economy first to improve its internal factors.Growth, external factors, domestic factors
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