Stratified statistical models of North Atlantic basin-wide and regional tropical cyclone counts

Using the historical Atlantic tropical cyclone record, this study examines the empirical relationships between climate state variables and Atlantic tropical cyclone counts. The state variables considered as predictors include indices of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and Northern Atlantic Oscillation, and both “local” and “relative” measures of Main Development Region sea surface temperature. Other predictors considered include indices measuring the Atlantic Meridional Mode and the West African monsoon. Using all of the potential predictors in a forward stepwise Poisson regression, we examine the relationships between tropical cyclone counts and climate state variables. As a further extension on past studies, both basin-wide named storm counts and cluster analysis time series representing distinct flavors of tropical cyclones, are modeled. A wide variety of cross validation metrics reveal that basin-wide counts or sums over appropriately chosen clusters may be more skillfully modeled than the individual cluster series. Ultimately, the most skillful models typically share three predictors: indices for the main development region sea surface temperatures, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, and the North Atlantic Oscillation

Bone Marrow Derived Mesenchymal Stem Cells Inhibit Inflammation and Preserve Vascular Endothelial Integrity in the Lungs after Hemorrhagic Shock

Hemorrhagic shock (HS) and trauma is currently the leading cause of death in young adults worldwide. Morbidity and mortality after HS and trauma is often the result of multi-organ failure such as acute lung injury (ALI) and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), conditions with few therapeutic options. Bone marrow derived mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) are a multipotent stem cell population that has shown therapeutic promise in numerous pre-clinical and clinical models of disease. In this paper, in vitro studies with pulmonary endothelial cells (PECs) reveal that conditioned media (CM) from MSCs and MSC-PEC co-cultures inhibits PEC permeability by preserving adherens junctions (VE-cadherin and β-catenin). Leukocyte adhesion and adhesion molecule expression (VCAM-1 and ICAM-1) are inhibited in PECs treated with CM from MSC-PEC co-cultures. Further support for the modulatory effects of MSCs on pulmonary endothelial function and inflammation is demonstrated in our in vivo studies on HS in the rat. In a rat “fixed volume” model of mild HS, we show that MSCs administered IV potently inhibit systemic levels of inflammatory cytokines and chemokines in the serum of treated animals. In vivo MSCs also inhibit pulmonary endothelial permeability and lung edema with concurrent preservation of the vascular endothelial barrier proteins: VE-cadherin, Claudin-1, and Occludin-1. Leukocyte infiltrates (CD68 and MPO positive cells) are also decreased in lungs with MSC treatment. Taken together, these data suggest that MSCs, acting directly and through soluble factors, are potent stabilizers of the vascular endothelium and inflammation. These data are the first to demonstrate the therapeutic potential of MSCs in HS and have implications for the potential use of MSCs as a cellular therapy in HS-induced lung injury

A Test of Highly Optimized Tolerance Reveals Fragile Cell-Cycle Mechanisms Are Molecular Targets in Clinical Cancer Trials

Robustness, a long-recognized property of living systems, allows function in the face of uncertainty while fragility, i.e., extreme sensitivity, can potentially lead to catastrophic failure following seemingly innocuous perturbations. Carlson and Doyle hypothesized that highly-evolved networks, e.g., those involved in cell-cycle regulation, can be resistant to some perturbations while highly sensitive to others. The “robust yet fragile” duality of networks has been termed Highly Optimized Tolerance (HOT) and has been the basis of new lines of inquiry in computational and experimental biology. In this study, we tested the working hypothesis that cell-cycle control architectures obey the HOT paradigm. Three cell-cycle models were analyzed using monte-carlo sensitivity analysis. Overall state sensitivity coefficients, which quantify the robustness or fragility of a given mechanism, were calculated using a monte-carlo strategy with three different numerical techniques along with multiple parameter perturbation strategies to control for possible numerical and sampling artifacts. Approximately 65% of the mechanisms in the G1/S restriction point were responsible for 95% of the sensitivity, conversely, the G2-DNA damage checkpoint showed a much stronger dependence on a few mechanisms; ∼32% or 13 of 40 mechanisms accounted for 95% of the sensitivity. Our analysis predicted that CDC25 and cyclin E mechanisms were strongly implicated in G1/S malfunctions, while fragility in the G2/M checkpoint was predicted to be associated with the regulation of the cyclin B-CDK1 complex. Analysis of a third model containing both G1/S and G2/M checkpoint logic, predicted in addition to mechanisms already mentioned, that translation and programmed proteolysis were also key fragile subsystems. Comparison of the predicted fragile mechanisms with literature and current preclinical and clinical trials suggested a strong correlation between efficacy and fragility. Thus, when taken together, these results support the working hypothesis that cell-cycle control architectures are HOT networks and establish the mathematical estimation and subsequent therapeutic exploitation of fragile mechanisms as a novel strategy for anti-cancer lead generation

Sex- and age-related differences in the management and outcomes of chronic heart failure: an analysis of patients from the ESC HFA EORP Heart Failure Long-Term Registry

Aims: This study aimed to assess age- and sex-related differences in management and 1-year risk for all-cause mortality and hospitalization in chronic heart failure (HF) patients. Methods and results: Of 16 354 patients included in the European Society of Cardiology Heart Failure Long-Term Registry, 9428 chronic HF patients were analysed [median age: 66 years; 28.5% women; mean left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) 37%]. Rates of use of guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT) were high (angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers, beta-blockers and mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists: 85.7%, 88.7% and 58.8%, respectively). Crude GDMT utilization rates were lower in women than in men (all differences: P\ua0 64 0.001), and GDMT use became lower with ageing in both sexes, at baseline and at 1-year follow-up. Sex was not an independent predictor of GDMT prescription; however, age >75 years was a significant predictor of GDMT underutilization. Rates of all-cause mortality were lower in women than in men (7.1% vs. 8.7%; P\ua0=\ua00.015), as were rates of all-cause hospitalization (21.9% vs. 27.3%; P\ua075 years. Conclusions: There was a decline in GDMT use with advanced age in both sexes. Sex was not an independent predictor of GDMT or adverse outcomes. However, age >75 years independently predicted lower GDMT use and higher all-cause mortality in patients with LVEF 6445%

Muramic Acid Is Not Generally Present in the Human Spleen as Determined by Gas Chromatography-Tandem Mass Spectrometry

It has been hypothesized that bacterial debris may accumulate in tissues of the reticuloendothelial system (RES) serving as an inflammatory stimulus for human disease. In support of this hypothesis, muramic acid (Mur), a component of bacterial peptidoglycan (PG), has previously been reported to be present in culture-negative human spleen. High-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) was employed in these analyses, and a peak was detected at the retention time of Mur. However, HPLC is best used as a screening technique, and it is vital that these tentative observations be reexamined by the state-of-the-art approach (gas chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry [GC-MS(2)]). Indeed, in the present work using GC-MS(2), Mur was not detected in six out of seven human spleens previously examined by HPLC. However, Mur was categorically detected at minute concentrations, 50 ppb, in one spleen. In conclusion, since Mur is not generally found in culture-negative human spleen, in future studies, these tissues can serve as negative controls. The study of Mur levels in inflammation (e.g., reactive arthritis) could prove important in testing the hypothesis that bacterial debris persisting in tissues could serve as a depot inciting diseases of unknown etiology

Lunar dust: A negative control for biomarker analyses of extraterrestrial samples?

The purpose of this study was to assess, for the first time, the presence of muramic acid (Mur) and 3-hydroxy fatty acids (3-OH FAs), chemical markers for terrestrial bacteria in "curated" lunar samples by use of state-of-the-art gas chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. The Apollo lunar sample collection has been stored, under isolation conditions, at the Johnson Space Center since 1969. Markers were absent in three of the four samples analyzed. However, one sample clearly contained markers for Earth bacteria (83-469 ppb for 3-OH FAs and 156 ppb for Mur). The bacterial markers were present at several orders of magnitude higher levels in terrestrial dust (7.6-36.9 X 10(3) ppb for 3-OH FAs and 125.3 X 10(3) ppb for Mur). The lunar sample containing markers consisted of dust rinsed from flight hardware, suggesting terrestrial biocontamination as the source. In conclusion, pristine lunar dust is strikingly different from terrestrial dust in lacking chemical markers for terrestrial bacteria. It is suggested that future life detection studies of other samples of extraterrestrial origin (e.g., from Mars) might be greatly aided by concurrent analysis of chemical markers for terrestrial bacteria and by including pristine lunar dust to provide a negative baseline

Role of Specific Cytochrome P450 Isoforms in the Conversion of Phenoxypropoxybiguanide Analogs in Human Liver Microsomes to Potent Antimalarial Dihydrotriazines

ABSTRACT: Phenoxypropoxybiguanides, such as PS-15, are antimalarial prodrugs analogous to the relationship of proguanil and its active metabolite cycloguanil. Unlike cycloguanil, however, WR99210, the active metabolite of PS-15, has retained in vitro potency against newly emerging antifolate-resistant malaria parasites. Recently, in vitro metabolism of a new series of phenoxypropoxybiguanide analogs has examined the production of the active triazine metabolites by human liver microsomes. The purpose of this investigation was to elucidate the primary cytochrome P450 isoforms involved in the production of active metabolites in the current lead candidate. By using expressed human recombinant isoform preparations, specific chemical inhibitors, and isoform-specific inhibitory antibodies, the primary cytochrome P450 isoforms involved in the in vitro metabolic activation of JPC-2056 were elucidated. Unlike proguanil, which is metabolized primarily by CYP2C19, the results indicate that CYP3A4 plays a more important role in the metabolism of both PS-15 and JPC-2056. Whereas CYP2D6 appears to play a major role in the metabolism of PS-15 to WR99210, it appears less important in the conversion of JPC-2056 to JPC-2067. These results are encouraging, considering the prominence of CYP2C19 and CYP2D6 polymorphisms in certain populations at risk for contracting malaria, because the current clinical prodrug candidate from this series may be less dependent on these enzymes for metabolic activation