Valley formation and methane precipitation rates on Titan

Branching valley networks near the landing site of the Huygens probe on Titan imply that fluid has eroded the surface. The fluid was most likely methane, which forms several percent of Titan's atmosphere and can exist as a liquid at the surface. The morphology of the valley networks and the nature of Titan's surface environment are inconsistent with a primary valley formation process involving thermal, chemical, or seepage erosion. The valleys were more likely eroded mechanically by surface runoff associated with methane precipitation. If mechanical erosion did occur, the flows must first have been able to mobilize any sediment accumulated in the valleys. We develop a model that links precipitation, open-channel flow, and sediment transport to calculate the minimum precipitation rate required to mobilize sediment and initiate erosion. Using data from two monitored watersheds in the Alps, we show that the model is able to predict precipitation rates in small drainage basins on Earth. The calculated precipitation rate is most sensitive to the sediment grain size. For a grain diameter of 1–10 cm, a range that brackets the median size observed at the Huygens landing site, the minimum precipitation rate required to mobilize sediment in the nearby branching networks is 0.5–15 mm hr^(−1). We show that this range is reasonable given the abundance of methane in Titan's atmosphere. These minimum precipitation rates can be compared with observations of tropospheric cloud activity and estimates of long-term methane precipitation rates to further test the hypothesis that runoff eroded the valleys

Large Divergence of Projected High Latitude Vegetation Composition and Productivity Due To Functional Trait Uncertainty

Vegetation distribution and composition are expected to change in northern high latitudes under rapid warming, which regulates ecosystem functions but remains challenging to predict. Vegetation change arises from the interplay of chronic climate trends such as warming and transient demographic processes of recruitment, growth, competition, and mortality. Most predictive models overlooked the role of demographic dynamics controlled by plant traits. Here, we simulate vegetation dynamics at the Kougarok Hillslope site in Alaska under historical and future climates using the E3SM Land Model coupled to the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Simulator (ELM-FATES). To evaluate the roles of plant traits, we parameterize the model with 5,265 trait configurations representing diverse physiological and demographic strategies. Results show current modeled biomass, composition, and productivity are most sensitive to traits controlling photosynthetic capacity, carbon allocation, allometry, and phenology. Among all trait configurations, ∼5% reproduce in situ biomass and plant functional type (PFT) composition measured in 2016, that are indistinguishable from these two observed ecosystem states. Notably, these same trait configurations produce diverging biomass, composition, and productivity under future climate, where the uncertainty attributable to traits is twice the change attributable to climate change. The variation of projected productivity arises from emerging PFT composition under novel climate regimes, primarily explained by traits controlling cold-induced mortality, recruitment, and allometry. Our findings highlight the importance and uncertainty of demographic dynamics and its interaction with climate change in shaping Arctic vegetation change. Improved model predictions will likely benefit from explicit consideration of vegetation demography and better constraints of critical traits

Benchmarking and parameter sensitivity of physiological and vegetation dynamics using the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) at Barro Colorado Island, Panama

Plant functional traits determine vegetation responses to environmental variation, but variation in trait values is large, even within a single site. Likewise, uncertainty in how these traits map to Earth system feedbacks is large. We use a vegetation demographic model (VDM), the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), to explore parameter sensitivity of model predictions, and comparison to observations, at a tropical forest site: Barro Colorado Island in Panama. We define a single 12-dimensional distribution of plant trait variation, derived primarily from observations in Panama, and define plant functional types (PFTs) as random draws from this distribution. We compare several model ensembles, where individual ensemble members vary only in the plant traits that define PFTs, and separate ensembles differ from each other based on either model structural assumptions or non-trait, ecosystem-level parameters, which include (a) the number of competing PFTs present in any simulation and (b) parameters that govern disturbance and height-based light competition. While single-PFT simulations are roughly consistent with observations of productivity at Barro Colorado Island, increasing the number of competing PFTs strongly shifts model predictions towards higher productivity and biomass forests. Different ecosystem variables show greater sensitivity than others to the number of competing PFTs, with the predictions that are most dominated by large trees, such as biomass, being the most sensitive. Changing disturbance and height-sorting parameters, i.e., the rules of competitive trait filtering, shifts regimes of dominance or coexistence between early- and late-successional PFTs in the model. Increases to the extent or severity of disturbance, or to the degree of determinism in height-based light competition, all act to shift the community towards early-successional PFTs. In turn, these shifts in competitive outcomes alter predictions of ecosystem states and fluxes, with more early-successional-dominated forests having lower biomass. It is thus crucial to differentiate between plant traits, which are under competitive pressure in VDMs, from those model parameters that are not and to better understand the relationships between these two types of model parameters to quantify sources of uncertainty in VDMs

Bomb radiocarbon evidence for strong global carbon uptake and turnover in terrestrial vegetation

Vegetation and soils are taking up approximately 30% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions because of small imbalances in large gross carbon exchanges from productivity and turnover that are poorly constrained. We combine a new budget of radiocarbon (14C) produced by nuclear bomb testing in the 1960s with model simulations to evaluate carbon cycling in terrestrial vegetation. We find that most state-of-the-art vegetation models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project underestimate the 14C accumulation in vegetation biomass. Our findings, combined with constraints on vegetation carbon stocks and productivity trends, imply that net primary productivity is likely at least 80 PgC/yr presently, compared to 43-76 PgC/yr predicted by current models. Storage of anthropogenic carbon in terrestrial vegetation is likely more short-lived and vulnerable than previously predicted

Land Use and Land Cover Affect the Depth Distribution of Soil Carbon: Insights From a Large Database of Soil Profiles

Soils contain a large and dynamic fraction of global terrestrial carbon stocks. The distribution of soil carbon (SC) with depth varies among ecosystems and land uses and is an important factor in calculating SC stocks and their vulnerabilities. Systematic analysis of SC depth distributions across databases of SC profiles has been challenging due to the heterogeneity of soil profile measurements, which vary in depth sampling. Here, we fit over 40,000 SC depth profiles to an exponential decline relationship with depth to determine SC concentration at the top of the mineral soil, minimum SC concentration at depth, and the characteristic “length” of SC concentration decline with depth. Fitting these parameters allowed profile characteristics to be analyzed across a large and heterogeneous dataset. We then assessed the differences in these depth parameters across soil orders and land cover types and between soil profiles with or without a history of tillage, as represented by the presence of an Ap horizon. We found that historically tilled soils had more gradual decreases of SC with depth (greater e-folding depth or Z∗), deeper SC profiles, lower SC concentrations at the top of the mineral soil, and lower total SC stocks integrated to 30 cm. The large database of profiles allowed these results to be confirmed across different land cover types and spatial areas within the Continental United States, providing robust evidence for systematic impacts of historical tillage on SC stocks and depth distributions

The International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) System: Design, Theory, and Implementation

The increasing complexity of Earth system models has inspired efforts to quantitatively assess model fidelity through rigorous comparison with best available measurements and observational data products. Earth system models exhibit a high degree of spread in predictions of land biogeochemistry, biogeophysics, and hydrology, which are sensitive to forcing from other model components. Based on insights from prior land model evaluation studies and community workshops, the authors developed an open source model benchmarking software package that generates graphical diagnostics and scores model performance in support of the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) project. Employing a suite of in situ, remote sensing, and reanalysis data sets, the ILAMB package performs comprehensive model assessment across a wide range of land variables and generates a hierarchical set of web pages containing statistical analyses and figures designed to provide the user insights into strengths and weaknesses of multiple models or model versions. Described here is the benchmarking philosophy and mathematical methodology embodied in the most recent implementation of the ILAMB package. Comparison methods unique to a few specific data sets are presented, and guidelines for configuring an ILAMB analysis and interpreting resulting model performance scores are discussed. ILAMB is being adopted by modeling teams and centers during model development and for model intercomparison projects, and community engagement is sought for extending evaluation metrics and adding new observational data sets to the benchmarking framework.Key PointThe ILAMB benchmarking system broadly compares models to observational data sets and provides a synthesis of overall performancePeer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/146994/1/jame20779_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/146994/2/jame20779.pd

Plant Regrowth as a Driver of Recent Enhancement of Terrestrial CO2 Uptake

The increasing strength of land CO2 uptake in the 2000s has been attributed to a stimulating effect of rising atmospheric CO2 on photosynthesis (CO2 fertilization). Using terrestrial biosphere models, we show that enhanced CO2 uptake is induced not only by CO2 fertilization but also an increasing uptake by plant regrowth (accounting for 0.33 ± 0.10 Pg C/year increase of CO2 uptake in the 2000s compared with the 1960s-1990s) with its effect most pronounced in eastern North America, southern‐eastern Europe, and southeastern temperate Eurasia. Our analysis indicates that ecosystems in North America and Europe have established the current productive state through regrowth since the 1960s, and those in temperate Eurasia are still in a stage from regrowth following active afforestation in the 1980s-1990s. As the strength of model representation of CO2 fertilization is still in debate, plant regrowth might have a greater potential to sequester carbon than indicated by this study

Future climate doubles the risk of hydraulic failure in a wet tropical forest

Future climate presents conflicting implications for forest biomass. We evaluate how plant hydraulic traits, elevated CO2 levels, warming, and changes in precipitation affect forest primary productivity, evapotranspiration, and the risk of hydraulic failure. We used a dynamic vegetation model with plant hydrodynamics (FATES-HYDRO) to simulate the stand-level responses to future climate changes in a wet tropical forest in Barro Colorado Island, Panama. We calibrated the model by selecting plant trait assemblages that performed well against observations. These assemblages were run with temperature and precipitation changes for two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (2086-2100: SSP2-45, SSP5-85) and two CO2 levels (contemporary, anticipated). The risk of hydraulic failure is projected to increase from a contemporary rate of 5.7% to 10.1-11.3% under future climate scenarios, and, crucially, elevated CO2 provided only slight amelioration. By contrast, elevated CO2 mitigated GPP reductions. We attribute a greater variation in hydraulic failure risk to trait assemblages than to either CO2 or climate. Our results project forests with both faster growth (through productivity increases) and higher mortality rates (through increasing rates of hydraulic failure) in the neo-tropics accompanied by certain trait plant assemblages becoming nonviable