Simulation of Future Land Use for Water Management - Assessing the suitability of scenario-based modelling

The problem of water shortage is increasingly getting attention within the field of water management, even in the wet Netherlands. Clean ground and surface water may become too scarce to allow for sustainable use for various functions. In order to assess the magnitude of this problem a water shortage study has been started in the Netherlands, in which the impact of land use change is an important issue. Land use models can help translate hypotheses regarding future spatial developments into maps of a possible future. These scenarios can then be used in spatial planning processes. Future land use is greatly influenced by current land use, autonomous socio-economic developments, current policy and in the long term climate changes and other changes in the physical environment. By developing scenarios that are clearly different from each other, especially on the factors that influence the problem of water shortage, divergent images of the future have been generated for 2030. In this way, a first impression has been developed for the bandwidth in which future developments can occur. The goal of this paper is to evaluate whether we are able to generate new, spatially diverse scenario’s based on existing material within a very short time period.

Cities are hot

Cities are great places to live in, as is extensively documented in urban economic literature. They offer employment, interaction opportunities and plenty of amenities. Their agglomeration benefits, for example, translate into higher labour productivity and higher wages and thus continue to attract more inhabitants every year. Yet, cities are not the most healthy places to live in

The impact of urban resurgence on public green space

Cities are great places for interaction and innovation that continue to attract new waves of migrants. This is reflected in the resurgence of most cities in Europe since the turn of the century. Their current popularity may, however, threaten their livability as house prices are soaring, city tourism results in overcrowding, congestion limits accessibility and green space is lost to urban development

The impact of urban form on commuting in large Chinese cities

Studies on cities in Europe and the United States have demonstrated that travel behaviour is influenced by urban form. Based on these findings policies steering the shape of cities have been proposed to reduce urban transport emissions and limit congestion. Such policies can also be relevant for the rapidly growing and motorising Chinese cities. Yet, empirical evidence on the relationships between urban form and car usage is scarce for the specific Chinese context that is characterised by high densities, fast development and strong government steering. Using novel crowd-sourced datasets we study the impact of several urban form variables (city size, urban density, land-use mix, polycentricity and spatial clustering) on the cost of commuting expressed in time and distance. The results show that city size and spatial clustering are important determinants of commuting: large cities without clear clusters of businesses and other facilities have longer average commuting times and distances. Increased prosperity also adds to longer and lengthier commutes. Spatial planning measures that maintain or reinforce high-density clusters can help limiting commuting distance and time. Current sprawled urban development may have long-term, negative consequences for the accessibility and liveability of Chinese cities and could hamper their economic potential

Evaluating future urbanisation patterns in the Netherlands

Although the Netherlands is one of the most densely populated countries, two thirds of the land area are still under agricultural use. Major socio-economic changes are however expected for the agricultural sector. The increasing globalisation of economic relations in agriculture and the possible reduction of European price support to farmers are examples of such developments that may affect agricultural land use. At the same time other land use functions put increasing pressure on rural land in order to accommodate housing, employment, recreation and water storage. The present study takes a closer look at the expected spatial developments and simulates possible future land use patterns by using an economics based land use model. Two opposing scenarios of anticipated land use change are used to illustrate the possible extremes of future land use configurations. These scenarios vary both in their quantitative and qualitative description of the projected changes. The simulation of low-density residential areas in green areas will illustrate this approach. The development of these new rural living areas is currently a sensitive topic in the public debate on urbanisation. The simulated urbanisation patterns are evaluated in terms of their impact on spatial policy related issues through the application of newly developed indicators. For decades the Dutch government has strived for compact forms of urbanisation in order to preserve the remaining stretches of open space. The applied metrics of land use change will therefor focus on the concentration of urbanisation and the fragmentation of open space. The findings of this study may be especially interesting now Dutch spatial policy seems to be on the brink of loosening its traditional grip on spatial planning.