When and why people misestimate future feelings: Identifying strengths and weaknesses in affective forecasting.

People try to make decisions that will improve their lives and make them happy, and to do so, they rely on affective forecasts-predictions about how future outcomes will make them feel. Decades of research suggest that people are poor at predicting how they will feel and that they commonly overestimate the impact that future events will have on their emotions. Recent work reveals considerable variability in forecasting accuracy. This investigation tested a model of affective forecasting that captures this variability in bias by differentiating emotional intensity, emotional frequency, and mood. Two field studies examined affective forecasting in college students receiving grades on a midterm exam (Study 1, N = 643), and U.S. citizens after the outcome of the 2016 presidential election (Study 2, N = 706). Consistent with the proposed model, participants were more accurate in forecasting the intensity of their emotion and less accurate in forecasting emotion frequency and mood. Overestimation of the effect of the event on mood increased over time since the event. Three experimental studies examined mechanisms that contribute to differential forecasting accuracy. Biases in forecasting intensity were caused by changes in perceived event importance; biases in forecasting frequency of emotion were caused by changes in the frequency of thinking about the event. This is the first direct evidence mapping out strengths and weaknesses for different types of affective forecasts and the factors that contribute to this pattern. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved)

White Matter Integrity and Processing Speed in Sickle Cell Anemia

Objective The purpose of this retrospective cross-sectional study was to investigate whether changes in white matter integrity are related to slower processing speed in sickle cell anemia. Methods Thirty-seven patients with silent cerebral infarction, 46 patients with normal MRI, and 32 sibling controls (age range 8–37 years) underwent cognitive assessment using the Wechsler scales and 3-tesla MRI. Tract-based spatial statistics analyses of diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) and neurite orientation dispersion and density imaging (NODDI) parameters were performed. Results Processing speed index (PSI) was lower in patients than controls by 9.34 points (95% confi- dence interval: 4.635–14.855, p = 0.0003). Full Scale IQ was lower by 4.14 scaled points (95% confidence interval: −1.066 to 9.551, p = 0.1), but this difference was abolished when PSI was included as a covariate (p = 0.18). There were no differences in cognition between patients with and without silent cerebral infarction, and both groups had lower PSI than controls (both p < 0.001). In patients, arterial oxygen content, socioeconomic status, age, and male sex were identified as predictors of PSI, and correlations were found between PSI and DTI scalars (fractional anisotropy r = 0.614, p < 0.00001; r = −0.457, p < 0.00001; mean diffusivity r = −0.341, p = 0.0016; radial diffusivity r = −0.457, p < 0.00001) and NODDI parameters (intracellular volume fraction r = 0.364, p = 0.0007) in widespread regions. Conclusion Our results extend previous reports of impairment that is independent of presence of infarction and may worsen with age. We identify processing speed as a vulnerable domain, with deficits potentially mediating difficulties across other domains, and provide evidence that reduced processing speed is related to the integrity of normal-appearing white matter using microstructure parameters from DTI and NODDI

Quantification of Silent Cerebral Infarction on High-Resolution FLAIR and Cognition in Sickle Cell Anemia

Research in sickle cell anemia (SCA) has used, with limited race-matched control data, binary categorization of patients according to the presence or absence of silent cerebral infarction (SCI). SCI have primarily been identified using low-resolution MRI, with radiological definitions varying in lesion length and the requirement for abnormality on both fluid attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR) and T1-weighted images. We aimed to assess the effect of published SCI definitions on global, regional, and lobar lesion metrics and their value in predicting cognition. One hundred and six patients with SCA and 48 controls aged 8-30 years underwent 3T MRI with a high-resolution FLAIR sequence and Wechsler cognitive assessment. Prevalence, number, and volume of lesions were calculated using a semi-automated pipeline for SCI defined as: (1) Liberal: any length (L-SCI); (2) Traditional: >3 mm in greatest dimension (T-SCI); (3) Restrictive; >3 mm in greatest dimension with a corresponding T1-weighted hypo-intensity (R-SCI). Globally, as hypothesized, there were large effects of SCI definition on lesion metrics in patients and controls, with prevalence varying from 24-42% in patients, and 4-23% in controls. However, contrary to hypotheses, there was no effect of any global metric on cognition. Regionally, there was a consistent distribution of SCI in frontal and parietal deep and juxta-cortical regions across definitions and metrics in patients, but no consistent distribution in controls. Effects of regional SCI metrics on cognitive performance were of small magnitude; some were paradoxical. These findings expose the challenges associated with the widespread use of SCI presence as a biomarker of white-matter injury and cognitive dysfunction in cross-sectional high-resolution MRI studies in patients with SCA. The findings indicate that with high-resolution MRI: (1) radiological definitions have a large effect on resulting lesion groups, numbers, and volumes; (2) there is a non-negligible prevalence of lesions in young healthy controls; and (3) at the group-level, there is no cross-sectional association between global lesion metrics and general cognitive impairment irrespective of lesion definition and metric. With high-resolution multi-modal MRI, the dichotomy of presence or absence of SCI does not appear to be a sensitive biomarker for the detection of functionally significant pathology; the search for appropriate endpoints for clinical treatment trials should continue

The dynamic geophysical environment of (101955) Bennu based on OSIRIS-REx measurements

The top-shaped morphology characteristic of asteroid (101955) Bennu, often found among fast-spinning asteroids and binary asteroid primaries, may have contributed substantially to binary asteroid formation. Yet a detailed geophysical analysis of this morphology for a fast-spinning asteroid has not been possible prior to the Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security-Regolith Explorer (OSIRIS-REx) mission. Combining the measured Bennu mass and shape obtained during the Preliminary Survey phase of the OSIRIS-REx mission, we find a notable transition in Bennu’s surface slopes within its rotational Roche lobe, defined as the region where material is energetically trapped to the surface. As the intersection of the rotational Roche lobe with Bennu’s surface has been most recently migrating towards its equator (given Bennu’s increasing spin rate), we infer that Bennu’s surface slopes have been changing across its surface within the last million years. We also find evidence for substantial density heterogeneity within this body, suggesting that its interior is a mixture of voids and boulders. The presence of such heterogeneity and Bennu’s top shape are consistent with spin-induced failure at some point in its past, although the manner of its failure cannot yet be determined. Future measurements by the OSIRIS-REx spacecraft will provide insight into and may resolve questions regarding the formation and evolution of Bennu’s top-shape morphology and its link to the formation of binary asteroids

Evidence for widespread hydrated minerals on asteroid (101955) Bennu

Early spectral data from the Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security-Regolith Explorer (OSIRIS-REx) mission reveal evidence for abundant hydrated minerals on the surface of near-Earth asteroid (101955) Bennu in the form of a near-infrared absorption near 2.7 µm and thermal infrared spectral features that are most similar to those of aqueously altered CM-type carbonaceous chondrites. We observe these spectral features across the surface of Bennu, and there is no evidence of substantial rotational variability at the spatial scales of tens to hundreds of metres observed to date. In the visible and near-infrared (0.4 to 2.4 µm) Bennu’s spectrum appears featureless and with a blue (negative) slope, confirming previous ground-based observations. Bennu may represent a class of objects that could have brought volatiles and organic chemistry to Earth