Spatial Autocorrelation Models for Galton's Problem

The effects of Galton's problem are discussed within a framework provided by the linear regression model. We examine five illustrative diffusion models and evaluate alternative estimation procedures (es pecially Naroll's linked pairs test and Wirsing's second order partial correlation). While no one procedure is adequate for all models, the specification of a diffusion model provides guidance in the selection of an appropriate estimation procedure.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/68209/2/10.1177_106939718101600106.pd

Criteria for Evaluation of Econometric Models

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/91910/1/Kmenta-Criteria_Evaluation_Econometric_Models.pd

The Returns to Cognitive Abilities and Personality Traits in Germany

We provide the first joint evidence on the relationship between individuals' cognitive abilities, their personality and earnings for Germany. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study, we employ scores from an ultra-short IQ-test and a set of measures of personality traits, namely locus of control, reciprocity and all basic items from the Five Factor Personality Inventory. Our estimates suggest a positive effect of so-called fluid intelligence or speed of cognition on males' wages only. Findings for personality traits are more heterogeneous. There however is a robust wage penalty for an external locus of control for both men and women

Entrepreneurs and Freelancers: Are They Time and Income Multidimensional Poor? The German Case

Entrepreneurs and freelancers, the self-employed, commonly are characterized as not only to be relatively rich in income but also as to be rich in time because of their time-sovereignty in principle. Our introducing study scrutinises these results and notions about the well-being situation of self-employed persons not only by asking about traditional single income poverty but also by considering time poverty within the framework of a new interdependent multidimensional (IMD) poverty concept. The German Socio-economic panel with satisfaction data serves as the data base for the population wide evaluation of the substitution/compensation between genuine, personal leisure time and income. The available detailed Time Use Surveys of 1991/92 and 2001/2 of the Federal Statistics Office provide the data to quantify the multidimensional poverty in all the IMD poverty regimes. Important result: self-employed with regard to single income poverty, single time poverty and interdependent multidimensional time and income poverty in both years are much more affected by time and income poverty than all other active persons defining the working poor. A significant proportion of non-income-poor but time poor of the active population are not able to compensate their time deficit even by an above poverty income. These people are neglected so far within the poverty and well-being discussion, the discussion about the 'working poor' and in the discussion about time squeeze and time pressure in general and in particular for the self-employed as entrepreneurs and freelancers

The effects of crude oil price volatility, stock price, exchange rate and interest rate on Malaysia’s economic growth

This study examines the effects and relationships between Malaysia’s economic growth and selected variables which are oil price volatility, stock price, real exchange rate and real interest rate. Using time-series data methodology, the study employs unit root test using Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) and Phillips–Perron (PP), Auto-Regressive Distribution Lag (ARDL) model supplemented by Bounds F-Testing, Johansen-Julius Co-integration test and Granger causality test. The long�run equation derived from ARDL shows that there are positive relationships for stock price and real exchange rate whilst there are negative relationships between oil price volatility and real interest rate. Furthermore, Granger causality test shows that only stock price and real interest rates have an impact on Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) in the short run. Finally, sound policy recommendations are suggested, in particular, to address oil price volatility in a forward looking manner as well as monetary-friendly measures to further support Malaysia’s economic growth

Stochastic flowering phenology in Dactylis Glomerata populations described by Markov chain modelling

Understanding the relationship between flowering patterns and pollen dispersal is important in climate change modelling, pollen forecasting, forestry and agriculture. Enhanced understanding of this connection can be gained through detailed spatial and temporal flowering observations on a population level, combined with modelling simulating the dynamics. Species with large distribution ranges, long flowering seasons, high pollen production and naturally large populations can be used to illustrate these dynamics. Revealing and simulating species-specific demographic and stochastic elements in the flowering process will likely be important in determining when pollen release is likely to happen in flowering plants. Spatial and temporal dynamics of eight populations of Dactylis glomerata were collected over the course of two years to determine high-resolution demographic elements. Stochastic elements were accounted for using Markov Chain approaches in order to evaluate tiller-specific contribution to overall population dynamics. Tiller-specific developmental dynamics were evaluated using three different RV matrix correlation coefficients. We found that the demographic patterns in population development were the same for all populations with key phenological events differing only by a few days over the course of the seasons. Many tillers transitioned very quickly from non-flowering to full flowering, a process that can be replicated with Markov Chain modelling. Our novel approach demonstrates the identification and quantification of stochastic elements in the flowering process of D. glomerata, an element likely to be found in many flowering plants. The stochastic modelling approach can be used to develop detailed pollen release models for Dactylis, other grass species and probably other flowering plants

Time and Income Poverty - An Interdependent Multidimensional Poverty Approach with German Time Use Diary Data

Income as the traditional one dimensional measure in well-being and poverty analyses is extended in recent studies by a multidimensional poverty concept. Though this is certainly a progress, however, two important aspects are missing: time as an important dimension and the interdependence of the often only separately counted multiple poverty dimensions. Our paper will contribute to both aspects: First, we consider time - and income - both as striking and restricting resources of everyday activities and hence account for time and income as important multiple poverty dimensions. Second, the interdependence of the poverty dimensions will be evaluated by the German population to allow an advanced approach to understand possible substitution effects and the respective trade offs between the dimensions. Referring to the time dimension, we follow Sen's capability approach with its freedom of the living conditions' choice and social exclusion and argue, that restricted time might exclude from social participation. In particular, restricted genuine, personal leisure time (not entire leisure time) in particular is associated with a restricted social participation. The crucial question then is how to measure the substitution between income and such genuine leisure time. In our analysis we consider the country population's valuation with data from the German Socio-Economic Panel and estimate the substitution by a CES-utility function of general utility/satisfaction. Given this quantification we disentangle time, income and interdependent multidimensional poverty regimes characterising the working poor. In addition, we quantify further socio-economic influences for each interdependent multidimensional poverty regime by a multinomial logit based on time use diary data of the German Time Use Study 2001/02. One striking result for Germany: the substitution between time and income is significant and we find an important fraction of time poor who are unable to substitute their time deficit by income. These poor people are ignored within the poverty and well-being as well as the time crunch and time famine discussion so far

Dynamics of new party formation in the Czech Republic 1996–2010: looking for the origins of a ‘political earthquake’

The stable and closed nature of the Czech party system and the failure of most new political parties have been among the most salient features of Czech democracy over the past two decades. The results of the 2010 parliamentary elections seemed to mark a break with this pattern: support for two main parties slumped to historically low levels and two new parties, TOP09 and Public Affairs (VV), entered parliament. This article seeks to put the ‘political earthquake’ of 2010 into perspective by mapping the development of new parties in the Czech Republic from the mid-1990s and relating them to comparative literature and typologies of new party emergence. It concludes that of the two successful new parties in 2010, Public Affairs was, by far, the more novel and important phenomenon