Timescale Dependence in River Channel Migration Measurements

Accurately measuring river meander migration over time is critical for sediment budgets and understanding how rivers respond to changes in hydrology or sediment supply. However, estimates of meander migration rates or streambank contributions to sediment budgets using repeat aerial imagery, maps, or topographic data will be underestimated without proper accounting for channel reversal. Furthermore, comparing channel planform adjustment measured over dissimilar timescales are biased because short‐ and long‐term measurements are disproportionately affected by temporary rate variability, long‐term hiatuses, and channel reversals. We evaluate the role of timescale dependence for the Root River, a single threaded meandering sand‐ and gravel‐bedded river in southeastern Minnesota, USA, with 76 years of aerial photographs spanning an era of landscape changes that have drastically altered flows. Empirical data and results from a statistical river migration model both confirm a temporal measurement‐scale dependence, illustrated by systematic underestimations (2–15% at 50 years) and convergence of migration rates measured over sufficiently long timescales (\u3e 40 years). Frequency of channel reversals exerts primary control on measurement bias for longer time intervals by erasing the record of observable migration. We conclude that using long‐term measurements of channel migration for sediment remobilization projections, streambank contributions to sediment budgets, sediment flux estimates, and perceptions of fluvial change will necessarily underestimate such calculations. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Integrating physiological threshold experiments with climate modeling to project mangrove species’ range expansion

Predictions of climate-related shifts in species ranges have largely been based on correlative models. Due to limitations of these models, there is a need for more integration of experimental approaches when studying impacts of climate change on species distributions. Here, we used controlled experiments to identify physiological thresholds that control poleward range limits of three species of mangroves found in North America. We found that all three species exhibited a threshold response to extreme cold, but freeze tolerance thresholds varied among species. From these experiments, we developed a climate metric, freeze degree days (FDD), which incorporates both the intensity and the frequency of freezes. When included in distribution models, FDD accurately predicted mangrove presence/absence. Using 28 years of satellite imagery, we linked FDD to observed changes in mangrove abundance in Florida, further exemplifying the importance of extreme cold. We then used downscaled climate projections of FDD to project that these range limits will move northward by 2.2–3.2 km yr⁻¹ over the next 50 years

Ecological implications of a flower size/number trade-off in tropical forest trees

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Comparison of Statistical Population Reconstruction Using Full and Pooled Adult Age-Class Data

BACKGROUND: Age-at-harvest data are among the most commonly collected, yet neglected, demographic data gathered by wildlife agencies. Statistical population construction techniques can use this information to estimate the abundance of wild populations over wide geographic areas and concurrently estimate recruitment, harvest, and natural survival rates. Although current reconstruction techniques use full age-class data (0.5, 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, … years), it is not always possible to determine an animal's age due to inaccuracy of the methods, expense, and logistics of sample collection. The ability to inventory wild populations would be greatly expanded if pooled adult age-class data (e.g., 0.5, 1.5, 2.5+ years) could be successfully used in statistical population reconstruction. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We investigated the performance of statistical population reconstruction models developed to analyze full age-class and pooled adult age-class data. We performed Monte Carlo simulations using a stochastic version of a Leslie matrix model, which generated data over a wide range of abundance levels, harvest rates, and natural survival probabilities, representing medium-to-big game species. Results of full age-class and pooled adult age-class population reconstructions were compared for accuracy and precision. No discernible difference in accuracy was detected, but precision was slightly reduced when using the pooled adult age-class reconstruction. On average, the coefficient of variation (i.e., SE(θ)/θ) increased by 0.059 when the adult age-class data were pooled prior to analyses. The analyses and maximum likelihood model for pooled adult age-class reconstruction are illustrated for a black-tailed deer (Odocoileus hemionus) population in Washington State. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Inventorying wild populations is one of the greatest challenges of wildlife agencies. These new statistical population reconstruction models should expand the demographic capabilities of wildlife agencies that have already collected pooled adult age-class data or are seeking a cost-effective method for monitoring the status and trends of our wild resources

Predicting the outcome of conservative treatment with physiotherapy in adults with shoulder pain associated with partial-thickness rotator cuff tears – a prognostic model development study

Model coefficient statistics (DOCX 21 kb

Factors associated with cancer-related fatigue in breast cancer patients undergoing endocrine therapy in an urban setting: a cross-sectional study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Fatigue is prevalent in breast cancer survivors and has profound effects on daily life. The interference of fatigue with endocrine therapy may be difficult to separate. This study investigates the prevalence and severity of fatigue and identifies the demographic, clinical, and lifestyle factors associated with cancer-related fatigue (CRF) in breast cancer patients undergoing endocrine therapy in an urban area.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Women with stage I-IIIA breast cancer were recruited and asked to participate (n = 371) in the study. The 315 women who responded to the questionnaire (84.9%), 54 (17.1%) had completed endocrine therapy and 261 (82.9%) were still undergoing endocrine therapy. The patients had been diagnosed at an average of 31 months prior to recruitment (range, 7 to 60 months); the average age was 48 (range, 33 to 72) years. The 11-point scale and Visual Analog Scale (VAS) were employed to quantify the level of fatigue experienced by the patients. Logistic regression analyses and a trend test method were performed to evaluate factors associated with CRF.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Among the 315 patients, 189 (60%) had experienced or were experiencing CRF during endocrine therapy. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify factors associated with CRF, including BMI (body mass index), clinical stage, menopausal status, duration of endocrine therapy, physical activity, and diet. Factors unrelated to CRF were age, marital status, treatment, endocrine therapy drugs, alcohol intake, and smoking. The trend test method revealed an association between physical activity and dietary level and the intensity of CRF.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The present findings suggest that fatigue is an important problem in the majority of breast cancer patients during endocrine therapy. We found that BMI, clinical stage, menopausal status, duration of endocrine therapy, physical activity, and diet are associated with fatigue. Future research should focus on the impact factors of CRF and lifestyle in the management of breast cancer patients.</p

An Investigation into the Poor Survival of an Endangered Coho Salmon Population

To investigate reasons for the decline of an endangered population of coho salmon (O. kisutch), 190 smolts were acoustically tagged during three consecutive years and their movements and survival were estimated using the Pacific Ocean Shelf Tracking project (POST) array. Median travel times of the Thompson River coho salmon smolts to the lower Fraser River sub-array were 16, 12 and 10 days during 2004, 2005 and 2006, respectively. Few smolts were recorded on marine arrays. Freshwater survival rates of the tagged smolts during their downstream migration were 0.0–5.6% (0.0–9.0% s.e.) in 2004, 7.0% (6.2% s.e.) in 2005, and 50.9% (18.6% s.e.) in 2006. Overall smolt-to-adult return rates exhibited a similar pattern, which suggests that low freshwater survival rates of out-migrating smolts may be a primary reason for the poor conservation status of this endangered coho salmon population

Similar dispersal patterns between two closely related birds with contrasting migration strategies

Studying dispersal is crucial to understand metapopulation and sink-source dynamics and invasion processes. The capability to disperse is especially important for species living in fragmented habitats like wetlands. We investigated the distribution of natal and breeding dispersal distances and philopatry in Spanish populations of two closely related reedbed-nesting birds, the Moustached Warbler Acrocephalus melanopogon and the Eurasian Reed Warbler Acrocephalus scirpaceus. These warblers are morphologically very similar, but differ in migration strategy and, in our study area, in population size. Our aims were to find the best model for dispersal distances and to assess the occurrence of intra- or interspecific differences in dispersal patterns. We used ringing data from the Spanish marking scheme and selected recaptures to avoid including migrating individuals. In both species, most individuals were philopatric but dispersing birds were able to cross large distances (up to more than 100 km), suggesting the capability to compensate for habitat fragmentation. We found the heavy-tailed Cauchy distribution to be the best conceptual description for our data, in all cases but natal dispersal of Moustached Warblers. Among Eurasian Reed Warblers, natal philopatry was lower than breeding philopatry. We found no significant interspecific differences. This does not confirm the hypothesis of higher dispersal ability in long distance migrants (like Eurasian Reed Warblers) than in resident/short distance migrant bird species (like Moustached Warblers). The similarity in dispersal patterns among the two warblers may be explained by their close phylogenetic relatedness, similar constraints imposed on both species by a patchy habitat or similar evolutionary pressures.We are grateful to the many ringers who collected the data during years of fieldwork in Spain. Francesco Ceresa is supported by an "Atraent talent'' grant from the University of Valencia.Ceresa, F.; Belda, E.; Monrós González, JS. (2016). Similar dispersal patterns between two closely related birds with contrasting migration strategies. Population Ecology. 58(3):421-427. doi:10.1007/s10144-016-0547-0S421427583Banco de datos de anillamiento del remite ICONA – Ministerio de Medio Ambiente (2015) Datos de anillamiento y recuperaciones en España. Ministerio de Agricultura, Alimentación y Medio Ambiente, SEO/BirdLife, ICO, EBD-CSIC y GOB. Madrid (in Spanish)Begon M, Townsend CR, Harper JL (2006) Ecology: from individual to ecosystems, 4th edn. Blackwell Publishing, OxfordBlomqvist D, Fessl B, Hoi H, Kleindorfer S (2005) High frequency of extra-pair fertilisation in the moustached warbler, a songbird with a variable breeding system. Behaviour 142:1133–1148Bohonak AJ (1999) Dispersal, gene flow, and population structure. Q Rev Biol 74:21–45Burnham KP, Anderson DR (2002) Model selection and multi-model inference: a practical information-theoretic approach. Springer Verlag, New YorkCantos FJ, Tellería JL (1994) Stopover site fidelity of four migrant warblers in the Iberian Peninsula. J Avian Biol 25:131–134Carrascal LM, Palomino D (2008) Las aves comunes reproductoras en España. Población en 2004–2006. SEO/BirdLife, Madrid (in Spanish with English abstract)Carrascal LM, Weykam S, Palomino D, Lobo JM, Díaz L (2005) Atlas Virtual de las Aves Terrestres de España. http://www.vertebradosibericos.org/atlasaves.html . Accessed 16 Feb 2016Castany J (2003) El carricerín real (Acrocephalus melanopogon) en el P. N. del Prat de Cabanes-Torreblanca. Doctoral thesis. University of Valencia, Valencia (in Spanish)Castany J, López G (2006) El carricerín real en España. I Censo Nacional (2005). SEO/BirdLife, Madrid (in Spanish with English abstract)Ceresa F, Belda EJ, Kvist L, Rguibi-Idrissi H, Monrós JS (2015) Does fragmentation of wetlands affect gene flow in sympatric Acrocephalus warblers with different migration strategies? J Avian Biol 46:577–588Cooper NW, Murphy MT, Redmond LJ, Dolan AC (2009) Density-dependent age at first reproduction in the eastern kingbird. Oikos 118:413–419Delignette-Muller ML, Dutang C (2015) fitdistrplus: An R Package for fitting distributions. J Stat Softw 64:1–34. http://www.jstatsoft.org/v64/i04/ . Accessed 2 Sep 2015Frankham R, Ballou JD, Briscoe DA (2010) Introduction to conservation genetics, 2nd edn. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeHengeveld R (1994) Small step invasion research. 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Acta Ornithologica 45:51–58Lambrechts MM, Blondel J, Caizergues A, Dias PC, Pradol R, Thomas DW (1999) Will estimates of lifetime recruitment of breeding offspring on small-scale study plots help us to quantify processes underlying adaptation? Oikos 86:147–151Machtans CS, Villard MA, Hannon SJ (1996) Use of riparian buffer strips as movement corridors by forest birds. Conserv Biol 10:1366–1379Nathan R, Perry G, Cronin JT, Strand AE, Cain ML (2003) Methods for estimating long-distance dispersal. Oikos 103:261–273Newton I (1992) Experiments on the limitation of bird numbers by territorial behaviour. Biol Rev 67:129–173Norberg UM (1990) Vertebrate flight, mechanics, physiology, morphology, ecology and evolution. Springer Verlag, BerlinParacuellos M, Tellería JL (2004) Factors affecting the distribution of a waterbird community: the role of habitat configuration and bird abundance. 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Mesopredator Release by an Emergent Superpredator: A Natural Experiment of Predation in a Three Level Guild

Chakarov N, Krüger O. Mesopredator Release by an Emergent Superpredator: A Natural Experiment of Predation in a Three Level Guild. PLoS ONE. 2010;5(12): e15229.Background: Intraguild predation (IGP) is widespread but it is often neglected that guilds commonly include many layers of dominance within. This could obscure the effects of IGP making unclear whether the intermediate or the bottom mesopredator will bear higher costs from the emergence of a new top predator. Methodology/Principal Findings: In one of the most extensive datasets of avian IGP, we analyse the impact of recolonization of a superpredator, the eagle owl Bubo bubo on breeding success, territorial dynamics and population densities of two mesopredators, the northern goshawk Accipiter gentilis and its IG prey, the common buzzard Buteo buteo. The data covers more than two decades and encompass three adjacent plots. Eagle owls only recolonized the central plot during the second decade, thereby providing a natural experiment. Both species showed a decrease in standardized reproductive success and an increase in brood failure within 1.5 km of the superpredator. During the second decade, territory dynamics of goshawks was significantly higher in the central plot compared to both other plots. No such pattern existed in buzzards. Goshawk density in the second decade decreased in the central plot, while it increased in both other plots. Buzzard density in the second decade rapidly increased in the north, remained unchanged in the south and increased moderately in the center in a probable case of mesopredator release. Conclusions/Significance: Our study finds support for top-down control on the intermediate mesopredator and both top-down and bottom-up control of the bottom mesopredator. In the face of considerable costs of IGP, both species probably compete to breed in predator-free refugia, which get mostly occupied by the dominant raptor. Therefore for mesopredators the outcome of IGP might depend directly on the number of dominance levels which supersede them

Monitoring frequency influences the analysis of resting behaviour in a forest carnivore

Resting sites are key structures for many mammalian species, which can affect reproduction, survival, population density, and even species persistence in human-modified landscapes. As a consequence, an increasing number of studies has estimated patterns of resting site use by mammals, as well as the processes underlying these patterns, though the impact of sampling design on such estimates remain poorly understood. Here we address this issue empirically, based on data from 21 common genets radiotracked during 28 months in Mediterranean forest landscapes. Daily radiotracking data was thinned to simulate every other day and weekly monitoring frequencies, and then used to evaluate the impact of sampling regime on estimates of resting site use. Results showed that lower monitoring frequencies were associated with major underestimates of the average number of resting sites per animal, and of site reuse rates and sharing frequency, though no effect was detected on the percentage use of resting site types. Monitoring frequency also had a major impact on estimates of environmental effects on resting site selection, with decreasing monitoring frequencies resulting in higher model uncertainty and reduced power to identify significant explanatory variables. Our results suggest that variation in monitoring frequency may have had a strong impact on intra- and interspecific differences in resting site use patterns detected in previous studies. Given the errors and uncertainties associated with low monitoring frequencies, we recommend that daily or at least every other day monitoring should be used whenever possible in studies estimating resting site use patterns by mammals