More results but no clear conclusion on selenium and cancer.

More results but no clear conclusion on selenium and cancer

GEIRA: gene-environment and gene–gene interaction research application

The GEIRA (Gene-Environment and Gene–Gene Interaction Research Application) algorithm and subsequent program is dedicated to genome-wide gene-environment and gene–gene interaction analysis. It implements concepts of both additive and multiplicative interaction as well as calculations based on dominant, recessive and co-dominant genetic models, respectively. Estimates of interactions are incorporated in a single table to make the output easily read. The algorithm is coded in both SAS and R. GEIRA is freely available to non-commercial users at http://www.epinet.se. Additional information, including user’s manual and example datasets is available online at http://www.epinet.se

A novel approach to quantify random error explicitly in epidemiological studies

The most frequently used methods for handling random error are largely misunderstood or misused by researchers. We propose a simple approach to quantify the amount of random error which does not require solid background in statistics for its proper interpretation. This method may help researchers refrain from oversimplistic interpretations relying on statistical significance

Southern Europe as an example of interaction between various environmental factors: a systematic review of the epidemiologic evidence

Hepatitis B virus (HBV), hepatitis C virus (HCV) and alcohol consumption are major causes of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) worldwide. We performed a systematic review of epidemiologic studies carried out on HCC aetiology in Southern Europe, an area with an intermediate– high prevalence of these agents as well as of putative risk factors such as tobacco smoking, diabetes and obesity. To retrieve the articles, we performed a Medline search for titles and abstracts of articles. After the Medline search, we reviewed the papers and reference lists to identify additional articles. A synergism between HCV infection and HBV infection, overt (hepatitis B virus antigen (HbsAg) positivity) or occult (HBsAg negativity with presence of HBV DNA in liver or serum), is suggested by the results of some studies. The pattern of the risk for HCC due to alcohol intake shows a continuous dose–effect curve without a definite threshold, although most studies found that HCC risk increased only for alcohol consumption above 40–60 g of ethanol per day. Some evidence supports a positive interaction of alcohol intake probably with HCV infection and possibly with HBV infection. A few studies found that coffee has a protective effect on HCC risk due to various risk factors. Some data also support a role of tobacco smoking, diabetes and obesity as single agents or preferably cofactors in causing HCC. In countries with a relatively high alcohol consumption and intermediate levels of HCV and HBV infections (1–3% of population infected by each virus), such as Mediterranean countries, the three main risk factors together account for about 85% of the total HCC cases, leaving little space to other known risk factors, such as haemochromatosis, and to new, still unrecognised, factors as independent causes of HCC. Oncogene (2006) 25, 3756–3770. doi:10.1038/sj.onc.120955

Beyond ‘significance’:Principles and practice of the analysis of credibility

The inferential inadequacies of statistical significance testing are now widely recognized. There is, however, no consensus on how to move research into a ‘post p < 0.05’ era. We present a potential route forward via the Analysis of Credibility, a novel methodology that allows researchers to go beyond the simplistic dichotomy of significance testing and extract more insight from new findings. Using standard summary statistics, AnCred assesses the credibility of significant and non-significant findings on the basis of their evidential weight, and in the context of existing knowledge. The outcome is expressed in quantitative terms of direct relevance to the substantive research question, providing greater protection against misinterpretation. Worked examples are given to illustrate how AnCred extracts additional insight from the outcome of typical research study designs. Its ability to cast light on the use of p-values, the interpretation of non-significant findings and the so-called ‘replication crisis’ is also discussed

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis incidence following exposure to inorganic selenium in drinking water

Background and aim. Some laboratory and epidemiologic studies have documented an association between high intake of the trace element selenium and risk of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), a degenerative disease of the motor neurons. There have been few epidemiologic studies of the association. Methods. From 1986 through 2015, we followed a community cohort in northern Italy that had been inadvertently exposed in the 1974-86 period to drinking water with unusually high levels of selenium, around 8 µg/ml, in its inorganic hexavalent form (selenate). In this cohort, we previously identified a high incidence of ALS during 1986-94. Here we report extended follow-up of this exposed cohort, as well as of an unexposed cohort including over 95,000 municipal residents, for an additional 21 years. We identified incident cases through administrative sources and a specialized registry. Results. During follow-up, 7 and 112 ALS cases were newly diagnosed in the exposed and unexposed cohorts, respectively, yielding incidence rates of 14 and 5 per 100,000 person-years. A Poisson regression analysis adjusting for age, sex, and calendar year produced an overall rate ratio (RR) for ALS of 2.8 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.3 - 6) in the entire period of follow-up. The association was stronger earlier than later in follow-up (1986-1994 vs. 1994-2015), and among women than men. All exposed cases were of the sporadic, non-familial form for the disease. Conclusion. Overall, results from this ‘natural experiment’ indicate a positive association between chronic exposure to inorganic selenium and ALS incidence, with rates in the exposed cohort declining over time after cessation of exposure. Also taking into account the recognized neurotoxicity of selenium, particularly its selective toxicity on motor neurons observed in animal studies, the present study provides additional support for the hypothesis that selenium in its inorganic form increases ALS risk

Stroke in urban and rural populations in north-east Bulgaria: incidence and case fatality findings from a 'hot pursuit' study

BACKGROUND: Bulgaria's official stroke mortality rates are higher for rural than urban areas. Official mortality data has indicated that these rates are amongst the highest in Europe. There has been a lack of studies measuring stroke incidence in urban and rural populations. METHODS: We established intensive notification networks covering 37791 residents in Varna city and 18656 residents (55% of them village-dwellers), all aged 45 to 84, in 2 rural districts. From May 1, 2000 to April 30, 2001 frequent contact was maintained with notifiers and death registrations were scanned regularly. Suspected incident strokes were assessed by study neurologists within a median of 8 days from onset. RESULTS: 742 events were referred for neurological assessment and 351 of these, which met the WHO criteria for stroke, were in persons aged 45 to 84 and were first ever in a lifetime. Incidence rates, standardised using the world standard weights for ages 45 to 84, were 909 (/100000/year) (95% CI 712–1105) and 597 (482–712) for rural and urban males and 667 (515–818) and 322 (248–395) for rural and urban females. Less than half were admitted to hospital (15% among rural females over 65). Twenty-eight day case fatality was 35% (123/351) overall and 48% (46/96) in village residents. The excess case fatality in the villages could not be explained by age or severity. CONCLUSIONS: Rural incidence rates were over twice those reported for western populations but the rate for urban females was similar to other western rates. The high level and marked heterogeneity in both stroke incidence and case fatality merit further investigation

Flexible Meta-Regression to Assess the Shape of the Benzene–Leukemia Exposure–Response Curve

Ba c k g r o u n d: Previous evaluations of the shape of the benzene–leukemia exposure–response curve (ERC) were based on a single set or on small sets of human occupational studies. Integrating evidence from all available studies that are of sufficient quality combined with flexible meta-regression models is likely to provide better insight into the functional relation between benzene exposure and risk of leukemia. Objectives: We used natural splines in a flexible meta-regression method to assess the shape of the benzene–leukemia ERC. Met h o d s: We fitted meta-regression models to 30 aggregated risk estimates extracted from nine human observational studies and performed sensitivity analyses to assess the impact of a priori assessed study characteristics on the predicted ERC. Re s u l t s: The natural spline showed a supralinear shape at cumulative exposures less than 100 ppmyears, although this model fitted the data only marginally better than a linear model (p = 0.06). Stratification based on study design and jackknifing indicated that the cohort studies had a considerable impact on the shape of the ERC at high exposure levels (&gt; 100 ppm-years) but that predicted risks for the low exposure range (&lt; 50 ppm-years) were robust. Co n c l u s i o n s: Although limited by the small number of studies and the large heterogeneity between studies, the inclusion of all studies of sufficient quality combined with a flexible meta-regression method provides the most comprehensive evaluation of the benzene–leukemia ERC to date. The natural spline based on all data indicates a significantly increased risk of leukemia [relative risk (RR) = 1.14; 95 % confidence interval (CI), 1.04–1.26] at an exposure level as low as 10 ppm-years. Key w o r d s: benzene, epidemiology, leukemia, meta-regression, quantitative risk assessment. Environ Health Perspect 118:526–532 (2010). doi:10.1289/ehp.0901127 available vi