Alternative futures for Southern Bluefin Tuna

This paper examines the outcomes of alternative management scenarios for the Southern Bluefin Tuna (SBT) fishery over the next 30 years. Two criteria are used to characterise outcomes: economic efficiency as measured by the present value of net benefits generated and conservation as measured by the predicted size of the spawning stock biomass in 20 years' time (SSB20). A bioeconomic model, incorporating the results of recent stock assessment analysis, is used to assess the effects of alternative management scenarios representing varying degrees of cooperation amongst the eight countries currently harvesting SBT. The results of the model are compared to the results of an earlier model based on a more favourable stock assessment. The results of the current model cast doubt on the prospects of achieving the SSB20 target and suggest that significant cuts to current catch rates are required on both economic and conservation grounds

Modelling stochastic crop response to fertilisation when carry‐over matters

Soils in a large part of Niger's agricultural area are sandy and very low in nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and organic matter. This low soil fertility combined with low and erratic rainfall constitutes a severe constraint on food cropping in the area. Although agronomists have advised chemical fertiliAtion as a means of improving soil fertility, little fertilizer has been used in this area of the world. The economic management of soil fertility in the agricultural area of Niger is analyzed using a dynamic model of farmer decision-making under uncertainty. The model is based on agronomic principles of plant growth and accounts for the carry over of P, an immobile nutrient. At current input prices, a soil P content of at least 14 pmm is found to be desirable. This target is above the natural soil fertility level of about 3 ppm. It can be maintained with a moderate annual application (12 kg P2O5 ha-1) of simple superphosphate. Results also suggests that returns to N fertilization are too low and variable to warrant the use of this inpu

Games in the Arctic: applying game theory insights to Arctic challenges

We illustrate the benefits of game theoretic analysis for assisting decision-makers in resolving conflicts and other challenges in a rapidly evolving region. We review a series of salient Arctic issues with global implications—managing open-access fisheries, opening Arctic areas for resource extraction and ensuring effective environmental regulation for natural resource extraction—and provide insights to help reach socially preferred outcomes. We provide an overview of game theoretic analysis in layman's terms, explaining how game theory can help researchers and decision-makers to better understand conflicts, and how to identify the need for, and improve the design of, policy interventions. We believe that game theoretic tools are particularly useful in a region with a diverse set of players ranging from countries to firms to individuals. We argue that the Arctic Council should take a more active governing role in the region by, for example, dispersing information to “players” in order to alleviate conflicts regarding the management of common-pool resources such as open-access fisheries and natural resource extraction. We also identify side payments—that is, monetary or in-kind compensation from one party of a conflict to another—as a key mechanism for reaching a more biologically, culturally and economically sustainable Arctic future. By emphasizing the practical insights generated from an academic discipline, we present game theory as an influential tool in shaping the future of the Arctic—for individual researchers, for inter-disciplinary research and for policy-makers themselves