Epidemiological Risk Factors and Modelling Approaches for Risk Assessment of Lumpy Skin Disease Virus Introduction and Spread: Methodological Review and Implications for Risk-Based Surveillance in Australia

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a vector-borne infection caused by the poxvirus lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) and is a serious disease of cattle, water buffalo, and banteng. While the disease has never occurred in Australia, it is regarded as a growing threat to the Australian cattle industry as there is on-going spread of the disease throughout Asia. The development of geospatial decision support tools, such as spatial epidemiological modelling, may assist in assessing areas at greater risk of this threat. To guide the design of disease modelling approaches to support future risk-based surveillance, existing LSDV epidemiological models need to be evaluated. In this study, we performed a literature review to evaluate existing LSDV epidemiological models, identify key risk factors for introduction and spread of LSDV, and consider previously adopted control strategies. The PRISMA guidelines were used to establish the processes for article selection and information extraction, and the PICO process was used to formulate search terms. From studies that met our inclusion criteria, we extracted information on LSDV epidemiological model structure and parameterisation, risk factors for LSDV transmission and spread, and biosecurity control strategies. The literature search retrieved a total of 402 articles from four databases, of which 68 were identified for inclusion in this review following screening. Of the 68 articles reviewed, 47 explored risk factors associated with LSDV transmission and spread, four explored risk factors of LSDV introduction, four explored existing surveillance strategies in LSD-free countries, and 14 presented epidemiological models. Our findings indicate that there are various risk factors for LSDV transmission in LSD endemic countries, including long-distance airborne movement of infected vectors such as stable flies and cattle movement between countries over land borders. Key risk factors for LSDV spread in LSD endemic countries include physical environmental characteristics, weather conditions, and population distributions of livestock and vectors. Our results indicate that while a variety of modelling studies have been conducted, the majority of studies experimentally explored LSD transmission mechanisms in vectors and cattle. Spatial and spatio-temporal models have primarily been developed for LSD endemic countries and focus on the spread of the disease in terms of environmental factors in relation to previous LSD events. There were very few studies on LSD-free countries, and these only focussed on risk of LSD introduction through specific entry pathways. This review did not identify any literature exploring the risk of spread of LSDV following introduction in LSD-free countries or geospatial modelling of the suitability of LSD-free countries for LSDV incursions. In conjunction with the risk parameters and models described in the identified literature, there is need to consider a wide range of risk factors specific to Australia to inform the design of risk-based surveillance for LSD in Australia

Spatial distribution and populations at risk of A. lumbricoides and T. trichiura co-infections and infection intensity classes: an ecological study.

BACKGROUND: Soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections are highly prevalent in the Philippines. Mapping the prevalence and high-intensity of STH co-infections can help guide targeted intervention programmes to reduce morbidity, especially among vulnerable school-aged children. In this study, we aimed to predict the spatial distribution of the prevalence of Ascaris lumbricoides and Trichuris trichiura co-infection and infection intensity classes in the Philippines to identify populations most in need of interventions. METHODS: Data on STH infections from 29,919 individuals during the nationwide parasitological survey in 2005 to 2007 were included in the analysis. To geographically predict the prevalence of A. lumbricoides and T. trichiura co-infections and infection intensity classes, Bayesian multinomial geostatistical models were built including age, sex, environmental variables and a geostatistical random effect. The number of individuals co-infected and belonging to each of the infection intensity classes in 2017 was forecast by combining our predictive prevalence maps with population density maps. RESULTS: Our models showed that school-aged children (5-19 years) are most at risk of A. lumbricoides and T. trichiura co-infections and of moderate/high infection intensity compared to other age groups. We identified target provinces where the likelihood of STH-associated morbidity was highest: Luzon (Bulacan, Benguet, Cavite, Sorsogon, Metropolitan Manila, Pampanga and Rizal), the Visayas (Cebu, Iloilo, Leyte and Negros Occidental), and in Mindanao (Agusan Del Norte, Davao Del Sur, Davao Oriental, Lanao Del Sur, Maguindanao, Misamis Oriental, Sulu and Zamboanga Del Sur). Luzon had the highest estimated number of school-aged children with A. lumbricoides and T. trichiura co-infections (estimated total 89,400), followed by the Visayas (38,300) and Mindanao (20,200). CONCLUSIONS: Our study provided epidemiological evidence to highlight national priority areas for controlling co-infections and high intensity infections in the Philippines. Our maps could assist more geographically targeted interventions to reduce the risk of STH-associated morbidity in the Philippines

A Functional Polymorphism in B and T Lymphocyte Attenuator Is Associated with Susceptibility to Rheumatoid Arthritis

Inhibitory coreceptors are thought to play important roles in maintaining immunological homeostasis, and a defect in the negative signals from inhibitory coreceptors may lead to the development of autoimmune diseases. We have recently identified B and T lymphocyte attenuator (BTLA), a new inhibitory coreceptor expressed on immune cells, and we suggest that BTLA may be involved in the development of autoimmune diseases using BTLA-deficient mice. However, the role of BTLA in the pathogenesis of autoimmune diseases in humans remains unknown. We, therefore, examined the possible association between BTLA and rheumatoid arthritis (RA), systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), and Sjögren's syndrome (SS) by conducting a case-control genetic association study. We found that 590C single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) of BTLA gene was significantly associated with susceptibility to RA, but not to SLE or SS. Furthermore, RA patients bearing this 590C SNP developed the disease significantly earlier than the patients without this allele. We also found that BTLA with 590C allele lacked the inhibitory activity on concanavalin A- and anti-CD3 Ab-induced IL-2 production in Jurkat T cells. These results suggest that BTLA is an RA-susceptibility gene and is involved in the protection from autoimmunity in humans

The treatment experiences of Australian women with gynaecological cancers and how they can be improved: a qualitative study

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.Gynaecological cancers are the fourth most common form of cancer and the fifth most common cause of cancer mortality for women in Australia. Definitive treatment is available in tertiary hospitals in major capital cities. This study aimed to understand how care is received by women in order to improve both their experience and outcomes. We interviewed 25 women treated for ovarian, cervical and uterine cancers in public or private hospitals in four states, including urban, rural and Indigenous women. Referral pathways were efficient and effective; the women were diagnosed and referred for definitive management through well-established systems. They appreciated the quality of treatment and the care they received during the inpatient and acute phases of their care. Three main problems were identified – serious post-operative morbidity that caused additional pain and suffering, lack of coordination between the surgical team and general practitioners, and poor pain management. The lack of continuity between the acute and primary care settings and inadequate management of pain are acknowledged problems in health care. The extent of post-operative morbidity was not anticipated. Establishing links between the surgical team and primary care in the immediate post-operative period is crucial for the improvement of care for women with gynaecological cancer in Australia

Spatial distribution and populations at risk of A. lumbricoides and T. trichiura co-infections and infection intensity classes: an ecological study

Background Soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections are highly prevalent in the Philippines. Mapping the prevalence and high-intensity of STH co-infections can help guide targeted intervention programmes to reduce morbidity, especially among vulnerable school-aged children. In this study, we aimed to predict the spatial distribution of the prevalence of Ascaris lumbricoides and Trichuris trichiura co-infection and infection intensity classes in the Philippines to identify populations most in need of interventions. Methods Data on STH infections from 29,919 individuals during the nationwide parasitological survey in 2005 to 2007 were included in the analysis. To geographically predict the prevalence of A. lumbricoides and T. trichiura co-infections and infection intensity classes, Bayesian multinomial geostatistical models were built including age, sex, environmental variables and a geostatistical random effect. The number of individuals co-infected and belonging to each of the infection intensity classes in 2017 was forecast by combining our predictive prevalence maps with population density maps. Results Our models showed that school-aged children (5–19 years) are most at risk of A. lumbricoides and T. trichiura co-infections and of moderate/high infection intensity compared to other age groups. We identified target provinces where the likelihood of STH-associated morbidity was highest: Luzon (Bulacan, Benguet, Cavite, Sorsogon, Metropolitan Manila, Pampanga and Rizal), the Visayas (Cebu, Iloilo, Leyte and Negros Occidental), and in Mindanao (Agusan Del Norte, Davao Del Sur, Davao Oriental, Lanao Del Sur, Maguindanao, Misamis Oriental, Sulu and Zamboanga Del Sur). Luzon had the highest estimated number of school-aged children with A. lumbricoides and T. trichiura co-infections (estimated total 89,400), followed by the Visayas (38,300) and Mindanao (20,200). Conclusions Our study provided epidemiological evidence to highlight national priority areas for controlling co-infections and high intensity infections in the Philippines. Our maps could assist more geographically targeted interventions to reduce the risk of STH-associated morbidity in the Philippines.KO is a PhD candidate supported by an Australian Government Research Training Programme Scholarship from the University of Queensland;MN isfunded by an Australian Research Council Discovery Project Grant (DP140101410); CLL is funded by an Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Early Career Fellowship (1109035); ACAC is supported by a NHMRC Senior Research Fellowship; LY is funded by the Medical Research Council UK, the Newton Fund, the Wellcome Trust and the European Union

Determinants of Spatial Heterogeneity of Functional Illiteracy among School-Aged Children in the Philippines: An Ecological Study.

Functional literacy is one of the targets of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the United Nations. Functional literacy indicators are likely to vary between locations given the geographical variability of its major determinants. This property poses a challenge to decisions around efficient allocation of population services and resources to mitigate the impact of functional literacy in populations most in need. Using functional literacy indicators of 11,313 school-aged children collected in 2008 during the nationwide survey, the current study examined the association between functional literacy and geographical disparities in socioeconomic status (SES), water supply, sanitation and hygiene, household education stimuli, and environmental variables in all three regions of the Philippines (Luzon, the Visayas, and Mindanao). Three nested fixed-effects multinomial regression models were built to determine associations between functional literacy and a wide array of variables. Our results showed the general prevalence rate of functional illiteracy as being 4.7%, with the highest prevalence rate in the Visayas, followed by Mindanao and Luzon (7.5%, 6.9%, and 3.0%, respectively. Our results indicated that in Luzon prevalence of functional illiteracy was explained by variation in household education stimuli scores, sources of drinking water, and type of toilet facility. In Mindanao and the Visayas prevalence of functional illiteracy was primarily explained by geographical variation in SES, and natural environmental conditions. Our study highlights region-specific determinants of functional literacy and the need for geographically targeted, integrated interventions

Functional illiteracy burden in soil-transmitted helminth (STH) endemic regions of the Philippines: An ecological study and geographical prediction for 2017.

BACKGROUND: Soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections remain highly endemic across the Philippines, and are believed to be important contributors to delayed cognitive development of school-aged children. Identification of communities where children are at risk of functional illiteracy is important for the attainment of Sustainable Development Goals target for literacy. We aimed to quantify the associations between the spatial variation of STH infections and functional literacy indicators adjusting for other important contributors, and identify priority areas in the Philippines in need of interventions. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used data from 11,313 school-aged children on functional literacy indicators collected in 2008. Nested fixed-effects multinomial regression models were built to determine associations between STH endemicity and geographical distribution of functional literacy, adjusting for demographics, household level variables, and the prevalence of malaria. Bayesian multinomial geostatistical models were built to geographically predict the prevalence of each level of functional literacy. The number of school-aged children belonging to each of the functional literacy indicator classes was forecast for 2017. We estimated 4.20% of functional illiteracy burden among school-aged children in Mindanao might be averted by preventing T. trichiura infections. Areas predicted with the highest prevalence of functional illiteracy were observed in localised areas of the eastern region of the Visayas, and the south-eastern portion of Mindanao. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The study demonstrates significant geographical variation in burden of functional illiteracy in school-aged children associated with STH infections suggesting that targeted helminth control could potentially promote the development of cognitive function of school-aged children in the Philippines. The benefits of a spatially targeted strategy should be tested by future studies

Epidemiological data management during an outbreak of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD): key issues and observations from Sierra Leone

Sierra Leone experienced intense transmission of Ebola virus disease (EVD) from May 2014 to November 2015 during which a total of 8,704 confirmed cases and over 3,589 confirmed deaths were reported. Our field observation showed many issues in the EVD data management system which may have contributed to the magnitude and long duration of the outbreak. In this perspective article, we explain the key issues with EVD data management in the field, and the resulting obstacles in analyzing key epidemiological indicators during the outbreak response work. Our observation showed that during the latter part of the EVD outbreak, surveillance and data management improved at all levels in the country as compared to the earlier stage. We identified incomplete filling and late arrival of the case investigation forms at data management centers, difficulties in detecting double entries and merging identified double entries in the database, and lack of clear process of how death of confirmed cases in holding, treatment and community care centers are reported to the data centers as some of challenges to effective data management. Furthermore, there was no consolidated database that captured and linked all data sources in a structured way. We propose development of a new application tool easily adaptable to new occurrences, regular data harmonization meetings between national and district data management teams, and establishment of a data quality audit system to assure good quality data as ways to improve EVD data management during future outbreaks