Contrasting responses of mean and extreme snowfall to climate change

Snowfall is an important element of the climate system, and one that is expected to change in a warming climate. Both mean snowfall and the intensity distribution of snowfall are important, with heavy snowfall events having particularly large economic and human impacts. Simulations with climate models indicate that annual mean snowfall declines with warming in most regions but increases in regions with very low surface temperatures. The response of heavy snowfall events to a changing climate, however, is unclear. Here I show that in simulations with climate models under a scenario of high emissions of greenhouse gases, by the late twenty-first century there are smaller fractional changes in the intensities of daily snowfall extremes than in mean snowfall over many Northern Hemisphere land regions. For example, for monthly climatological temperatures just below freezing and surface elevations below 1,000 metres, the 99.99th percentile of daily snowfall decreases by 8% in the multimodel median, compared to a 65% reduction in mean snowfall. Both mean and extreme snowfall must decrease for a sufficiently large warming, but the climatological temperature above which snowfall extremes decrease with warming in the simulations is as high as −9 °C, compared to −14 °C for mean snowfall. These results are supported by a physically based theory that is consistent with the observed rain–snow transition. According to the theory, snowfall extremes occur near an optimal temperature that is insensitive to climate warming, and this results in smaller fractional changes for higher percentiles of daily snowfall. The simulated changes in snowfall that I find would influence surface snow and its hazards; these changes also suggest that it may be difficult to detect a regional climate-change signal in snowfall extremes.National Science Foundation (U.S.) (Grant AGS-1148594)United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (ROSES Grant 09-IDS09-0049

Observational constraints on atmospheric and oceanic cross-equatorial heat transports: revisiting the precipitation asymmetry problem in climate models

Satellite based top-of-atmosphere (TOA) and surface radiation budget observations are combined with mass corrected vertically integrated atmospheric energy divergence and tendency from reanalysis to infer the regional distribution of the TOA, atmospheric and surface energy budget terms over the globe. Hemispheric contrasts in the energy budget terms are used to determine the radiative and combined sensible and latent heat contributions to the cross-equatorial heat transports in the atmosphere (AHT_EQ) and ocean (OHT_EQ). The contrast in net atmospheric radiation implies an AHT_EQ from the northern hemisphere (NH) to the southern hemisphere (SH) (0.75 PW), while the hemispheric difference in sensible and latent heat implies an AHT_EQ in the opposite direction (0.51 PW), resulting in a net NH to SH AHT_EQ (0.24 PW). At the surface, the hemispheric contrast in the radiative component (0.95 PW) dominates, implying a 0.44 PW SH to NH OHT_EQ. Coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) models with excessive net downward surface radiation and surface-to-atmosphere sensible and latent heat transport in the SH relative to the NH exhibit anomalous northward AHT_EQ and overestimate SH tropical precipitation. The hemispheric bias in net surface radiative flux is due to too much longwave surface radiative cooling in the NH tropics in both clear and all-sky conditions and excessive shortwave surface radiation in the SH subtropics and extratropics due to an underestimation in reflection by clouds

The role of horizontal resolution in simulating drivers of the global hydrological cycle

The role of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) horizontal resolution in representing the global energy budget and hydrological cycle is assessed, with the aim of improving the understanding of model uncertainties in simulating the hydrological cycle. We use two AGCMs from the UK Met Office Hadley Centre: HadGEM1-A at resolutions ranging from 270 to 60 km, and HadGEM3-A ranging from 135 to 25 km. The models exhibit a stable hydrological cycle, although too intense compared to reanalyses and observations. This over-intensity is explained by excess surface shortwave radiation, a common error in general circulation models (GCMs). This result is insensitive to resolution. However, as resolution is increased, precipitation decreases over the ocean and increases over the land. This is associated with an increase in atmospheric moisture transport from ocean to land, which changes the partitioning of moisture fluxes that contribute to precipitation over land from less local to more non-local moisture sources. The results start to converge at 60-km resolution, which underlines the excessive reliance of the mean hydrological cycle on physical parametrization (local unresolved processes) versus model dynamics (large-scale resolved processes) in coarser HadGEM1 and HadGEM3 GCMs. This finding may be valid for other GCMs, showing the necessity to analyze other chains of GCMs that may become available in the future with such a range of horizontal resolutions. Our finding supports the hypothesis that heterogeneity in model parametrization is one of the underlying causes of model disagreement in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) exercises

Local Difference Measures between Complex Networks for Dynamical System Model Evaluation

Acknowledgments We thank Reik V. Donner for inspiring suggestions that initialized the work presented herein. Jan H. Feldhoff is credited for providing us with the STARS simulation data and for his contributions to fruitful discussions. Comments by the anonymous reviewers are gratefully acknowledged as they led to substantial improvements of the manuscript.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

The crucial role of particle surface reactivity in respirable quartz-induced reactive oxygen/nitrogen species formation and APE/Ref-1 induction in rat lung

Persistent inflammation and associated excessive oxidative stress have been crucially implicated in quartz-induced pulmonary diseases, including fibrosis and cancer. We have investigated the significance of the particle surface reactivity of respirable quartz dust in relation to the in vivo generation of reactive oxygen and nitrogen species (ROS/RNS) and the associated induction of oxidative stress responses in the lung. Therefore, rats were intratracheally instilled with 2 mg quartz (DQ12) or quartz whose surface was modified by either polyvinylpyridine-N-oxide (PVNO) or aluminium lactate (AL). Seven days after instillation, the bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) was analysed for markers of inflammation (total/differential cell counts), levels of pulmonary oxidants (H(2)O(2), nitrite), antioxidant status (trolox equivalent antioxidant capacity), as well as for markers of lung tissue damage, e.g. total protein, lactate dehydrogenase and alkaline phosphatase. Lung homogenates as well as sections were investigated regarding the induction of the oxidative DNA-lesion/oxidative stress marker 8-hydroxy-2'-deoxyguanosine (8-OHdG) using HPLC/ECD analysis and immunohistochemistry, respectively. Homogenates and sections were also investigated for the expression of the bifunctional apurinic/apyrimidinic endonuclease/redox factor-1 (APE/Ref-1) by Western blotting and immunohistochemistry. Significantly increased levels of H(2)O(2 )and nitrite were observed in rats treated with non-coated quartz, when compared to rats that were treated with either saline or the surface-modified quartz preparations. In the BALF, there was a strong correlation between the number of macrophages and ROS, as well as total cells and RNS. Although enhanced oxidant generation in non-coated DQ12-treated rats was paralleled with an increased total antioxidant capacity in the BALF, these animals also showed significantly enhanced lung tissue damage. Remarkably however, elevated ROS levels were not associated with an increase in 8-OHdG, whereas the lung tissue expression of APE/Ref-1 protein was clearly up-regulated. The present data provide further in vivo evidence for the crucial role of particle surface properties in quartz dust-induced ROS/RNS generation by recruited inflammatory phagocytes. Our results also demonstrate that quartz dust can fail to show steady-state enhanced oxidative DNA damage in the respiratory tract, in conditions were it elicits a marked and persistent inflammation with associated generation of ROS/RNS, and indicate that this may relate to compensatory induction of APE/Ref-1 mediated base excision repair

On the Carriers of the 21 Micron Emission Feature in Post-Asymptotic Giant Branch Stars

The mysterious 21micron emission feature seen in sixteen C-rich proto-planetary nebulae (PPNe) remains unidentified since its discovery in 1989. Over a dozen of materials are suggested as the carrier candidates. In this work we quantitatively investigate eight inorganic and one organic carrier candidates in terms of elemental abundance constraints, while previous studies mostly focus on their spectral profiles (which could be largely affected by grain size, shape and clustering effects). It is found that: (1) five candidates (TiC nanoclusters, fullerenes coordinated with Ti atoms, SiS$_2$, doped-SiC, and SiO$_2$-coated SiC dust) violate the abundance constraints (i.e. they require too much Ti, S or Si to account for the emission power of the 21micron band, (2) three candidates (carbon and silicon mixtures, Fe$_2$O$_3$, and Fe$_3$O$_4$),while satisfying the abundance constraints, exhibit secondary features which are not detected in the 21micron sources, and (3) nano FeO, neither exceeding the abundance budget nor producing undetected secondary features, seems to be a viable candidate, supporting the suggestions of Posch et al. 2004.Comment: 12 pages, 2 figures, accepted for publication in MNRA

The resolution sensitivity of the Asian summer monsoon and its inter-model comparison between MRI-AGCM and MetUM

In this study, we compare the resolution sensitivity of the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) in two Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCMs): the MRI-AGCM and the MetUM. We analyze the MetUM at three different resolutions, N96 (approximately 200-km mesh on the equator), N216 (90-km mesh) and N512 (40-km mesh), and the MRI-AGCM at TL95 (approximately 180-km mesh on the equator), TL319 (60-km mesh), and TL959 (20-km mesh). The MRI-AGCM and the MetUM both show decreasing precipitation over the western Pacific with increasing resolution, but their precipitation responses differ over the Indian Ocean. In MRI-AGCM, a large precipitation increase appears off the equator (5–20°N). In MetUM, this off-equatorial precipitation increase is less significant and precipitation decreases over the equator. Moisture budget analysis demonstrates that a changing in moisture flux convergence at higher resolution is related to the precipitation response. Orographic effects, intra-seasonal variability and the representation of the meridional thermal gradient are explored as possible causes of the resolution sensitivity. Both high-resolution AGCMs (TL959 and N512) can represent steep topography, which anchors the rainfall pattern over south Asia and the Maritime Continent. In MRI-AGCM, representation of low pressure systems in TL959 also contributes to the rainfall pattern. Furthermore, the seasonal evolution of the meridional thermal gradient appears to be more accurate at higher resolution, particularly in the MRI-AGCM. These findings emphasize that the impact of resolution is only robust across the two AGCMs for some features of the ASM, and highlights the importance of multi-model studies of GCM resolution sensitivity