Not one Brexit: How local context and social processes influence policy analysis.

This paper develops an empirical agent-based model to assess the impacts of Brexit on Scottish cattle farms. We first identify several trends and processes among Scottish cattle farms that were ongoing before Brexit: the lack of succession, the rise of leisure farming, the trend to diversify and industrialise, and, finally, the phenomenon of the "disappearing middle", characterised by the decline of medium-sized farms and the polarization of farm sizes. We then study the potential impact of Brexit amid the local context and those ongoing social processes. We find that the impact of Brexit is indeed subject to pre-Brexit conditions. For example, whether industrialization is present locally can significantly alter the impact of Brexit. The impact of Brexit also varies by location: we find a clear divide between constituencies in the north (highland and islands), the middle (the central belt) and the south. Finally, we argue that policy analysis of Brexit should consider the heterogeneous social context and the complex social processes under which Brexit occurs. Rather than fitting the world into simple system models and ignoring the evidence when it does not fit, we need to develop policy analysis frameworks that can incorporate real world complexities, so that we can assess the impacts of major events and policy changes in a more meaningful way

Recruitment of TBK1 to cytosol‐invading Salmonella induces WIPI2‐dependent antibacterial autophagy

Mammalian cells deploy autophagy to defend their cytosol against bacterial invaders. Anti-bacterial autophagy relies on the core autophagy machinery, cargo receptors, and "eat-me" signals such as galectin-8 and ubiquitin that label bacteria as autophagy cargo. Anti-bacterial autophagy also requires the kinase TBK1, whose role in autophagy has remained enigmatic. Here we show that recruitment of WIPI2, itself essential for anti-bacterial autophagy, is dependent on the localization of catalytically active TBK1 to the vicinity of cytosolic bacteria. Experimental manipulation of TBK1 recruitment revealed that engagement of TBK1 with any of a variety of Salmonella-associated "eat-me" signals, including host-derived glycans and K48- and K63-linked ubiquitin chains, suffices to restrict bacterial proliferation. Promiscuity in recruiting TBK1 via independent signals may buffer TBK1 functionality from potential bacterial antagonism and thus be of evolutionary advantage to the host

Crossing the chasm: a 'tube-map' for agent-based social simulation of policy scenarios in spatially-distributed systems

Agent based models (ABMs) simulate actions and interactions of autonomous agents/groups and their effect on systems as a whole, accounting for learning without assuming perfect rationality or complete knowledge. ABMs are an increasingly popular approach to studying complex, spatially distributed socio-environmental systems, but have still to become an established approach in the sense of being one that is expected by those wanting to explore scenarios in such systems. Partly, this is an issue of awareness – ABM is still new enough that many people have not heard of it; partly, it is an issue of confidence – ABM has more to do to prove itself if it is to become a preferred method. This paper will identify advances in the craft and deployment of ABM needed if ABM is to become an accepted part of mainstream science for policy or stakeholders. The conduct of ABM has, over the last decade, seen a transition from using abstracted representations of systems (supporting theory-led thought experiments) to more accessible representations derived empirically (to deliver more applied analysis). This has enhanced the perception of potential users of ABM outputs that the latter are salient and credible. Empirical ABM is not, however, a panacea, as it demands more computing and data resources, limiting applications to domains where data exist along with suitable environmental models where these are required. Further, empirical ABM is still facing serious questions of validation and the ontology used to describe the system in the first place. Using Geoffrey A. Moore’s Crossing the Chasm as a lens, we argue that the way ahead for ABM lies in identifying the niches in which it can best demonstrate its advantages, working with collaborators to demonstrate that it can deliver on its promises. This leads us to identify several areas where work is needed

Symptoms and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Positivity in the General Population in the United Kingdom

BACKGROUND: “Classic” symptoms (cough, fever, loss of taste/smell) prompt severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing in the United Kingdom. Studies have assessed the ability of different symptoms to identify infection, but few have compared symptoms over time (reflecting variants) and by vaccination status. METHODS: Using the COVID-19 Infection Survey, sampling households across the United Kingdom, we compared symptoms in PCR-positives vs PCR-negatives, evaluating sensitivity of combinations of 12 symptoms (percentage symptomatic PCR-positives reporting specific symptoms) and tests per case (TPC) (PCR-positives or PCR-negatives reporting specific symptoms/ PCR-positives reporting specific symptoms). RESULTS: Between April 2020 and August 2021, 27 869 SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positive episodes occurred in 27 692 participants (median 42 years), of whom 13 427 (48%) self-reported symptoms (“symptomatic PCR-positives”). The comparator comprised 3 806 692 test-negative visits (457 215 participants); 130 612 (3%) self-reported symptoms (“symptomatic PCR-negatives”). Symptom reporting in PCR-positives varied by age, sex, and ethnicity, and over time, reflecting changes in prevalence of viral variants, incidental changes (eg, seasonal pathogens (with sore throat increasing in PCR-positives and PCR-negatives from April 2021), schools reopening) and vaccination rollout. After May 2021 when Delta emerged, headache and fever substantially increased in PCR-positives, but not PCR-negatives. Sensitivity of symptom-based detection increased from 74% using “classic” symptoms, to 81% adding fatigue/weakness, and 90% including all 8 additional symptoms. However, this increased TPC from 4.6 to 5.3 to 8.7. CONCLUSIONS: Expanded symptom combinations may provide modest benefits for sensitivity of PCR-based case detection, but this will vary between settings and over time, and increases tests/case. Large-scale changes to targeted PCR-testing approaches require careful evaluation given substantial resource and infrastructure implications

Influence of real-world characteristics on outcomes for patients with methicillin-resistant Staphylococcal skin and soft tissue infections:a multi-country medical chart review in Europe

BACKGROUND: Patient-related (demographic/disease) and treatment-related (drug/clinician/hospital) characteristics were evaluated as potential predictors of healthcare resource use and opportunities for early switch (ES) from intravenous (IV)-to-oral methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA)-active antibiotic therapy and early hospital discharge (ED). METHODS: This retrospective observational medical chart study analyzed patients (across 12 European countries) with microbiologically confirmed MRSA complicated skin and soft tissue infections (cSSTI), ≥3 days of IV anti-MRSA antibiotics during hospitalization (July 1, 2010-June 30, 2011), and discharged alive by July 31, 2011. Logistic/linear regression models evaluated characteristics potentially associated with actual resource use (length of IV therapy, length of hospital stay [LOS], IV-to-oral antibiotic switch), and ES and ED (using literature-based and expert-verified criteria) outcomes. RESULTS: 1542 patients (mean ± SD age 60.8 ± 16.5 years; 61.5% males) were assessed with 81.0% hospitalized for MRSA cSSTI as the primary reason. Several patient demographic, infection, complication, treatment, and hospital characteristics were predictive of length of IV therapy, LOS, IV-to-oral antibiotic switch, or ES and ED opportunities. Outcomes and ES and ED opportunities varied across countries. Length of IV therapy and LOS (r = 0.66, p < 0.0001) and eligibilities for ES and ED (r = 0.44, p < 0.0001) showed relatively strong correlations. IV-to-oral antibiotic switch patients had significantly shorter length of IV therapy (−5.19 days, p < 0.001) and non-significantly shorter LOS (−1.86 days, p > 0.05). Certain patient and treatment characteristics were associated with increased odds of ES (healthcare-associated/ hospital-acquired infection) and ED (patient living arrangements, healthcare-associated/ hospital-acquired infection, initiating MRSA-active treatment 1–2 days post cSSTI index date, existing ED protocol), while other factors decreased the odds of ES (no documented MRSA culture, ≥4 days from admission to cSSTI index date, IV-to-oral switch, IV line infection) and ED (dementia, no documented MRSA culture, initiating MRSA-active treatment ≥3 days post cSSTI index date, existing ES protocol). CONCLUSIONS: Practice patterns and opportunity for further ES and ED were affected by several infection, treatment, hospital, and geographical characteristics, which should be considered in identifying ES and ED opportunities and designing interventions for MRSA cSSTI to reduce IV days and LOS while maintaining the quality of care. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1471-2334-14-476) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Effect of Delta variant on viral burden and vaccine effectiveness against new SARS-CoV-2 infections in the UK

The effectiveness of the BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 vaccines against new severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections requires continuous re-evaluation, given the increasingly dominant B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant. In this study, we investigated the effectiveness of these vaccines in a large, community-based survey of randomly selected households across the United Kingdom. We found that the effectiveness of BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 against infections (new polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-positive cases) with symptoms or high viral burden is reduced with the B.1.617.2 variant (absolute difference of 10–13% for BNT162b2 and 16% for ChAdOx1) compared to the B.1.1.7 (Alpha) variant. The effectiveness of two doses remains at least as great as protection afforded by prior natural infection. The dynamics of immunity after second doses differed significantly between BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1, with greater initial effectiveness against new PCR-positive cases but faster declines in protection against high viral burden and symptomatic infection with BNT162b2. There was no evidence that effectiveness varied by dosing interval, but protection was higher in vaccinated individuals after a prior infection and in younger adults. With B.1.617.2, infections occurring after two vaccinations had similar peak viral burden as those in unvaccinated individuals. SARS-CoV-2 vaccination still reduces new infections, but effectiveness and attenuation of peak viral burden are reduced with B.1.617.2

Ct threshold values, a proxy for viral load in community SARS-CoV-2 cases, demonstrate wide variation across populations and over time

Background: Information on SARS-CoV-2 in representative community surveillance is limited, particularly cycle threshold (Ct) values (a proxy for viral load). Methods: We included all positive nose and throat swabs 26 April 2020 to 13 March 2021 from the UK’s national COVID-19 Infection Survey, tested by RT-PCR for the N, S, and ORF1ab genes. We investigated predictors of median Ct value using quantile regression. Results: Of 3,312,159 nose and throat swabs, 27,902 (0.83%) were RT-PCR-positive, 10,317 (37%), 11,012 (40%), and 6550 (23%) for 3, 2, or 1 of the N, S, and ORF1ab genes, respectively, with median Ct = 29.2 (~215 copies/ml; IQR Ct = 21.9–32.8, 14–56,400 copies/ml). Independent predictors of lower Cts (i.e. higher viral load) included self-reported symptoms and more genes detected, with at most small effects of sex, ethnicity, and age. Single-gene positives almost invariably had Ct > 30, but Cts varied widely in triple-gene positives, including without symptoms. Population-level Cts changed over time, with declining Ct preceding increasing SARS-CoV-2 positivity. Of 6189 participants with IgG S-antibody tests post-first RT-PCR-positive, 4808 (78%) were ever antibody-positive; Cts were significantly higher in those remaining antibody negative. Conclusions: Marked variation in community SARS-CoV-2 Ct values suggests that they could be a useful epidemiological early-warning indicator. Funding: Department of Health and Social Care, National Institutes of Health Research, Huo Family Foundation, Medical Research Council UK; Wellcome Trust

Monitoring populations at increased risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection in the community using population-level demographic and behavioural surveillance

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic is rapidly evolving, with emerging variants and fluctuating control policies. Real-time population screening and identification of groups in whom positivity is highest could help monitor spread and inform public health messaging and strategy. METHODS: To develop a real-time screening process, we included results from nose and throat swabs and questionnaires taken 19 July 2020-17 July 2021 in the UK's national COVID-19 Infection Survey. Fortnightly, associations between SARS-CoV-2 positivity and 60 demographic and behavioural characteristics were estimated using logistic regression models adjusted for potential confounders, considering multiple testing, collinearity, and reverse causality. FINDINGS: Of 4,091,537 RT-PCR results from 482,677 individuals, 29,903 (0·73%) were positive. As positivity rose September-November 2020, rates were independently higher in younger ages, and those living in Northern England, major urban conurbations, more deprived areas, and larger households. Rates were also higher in those returning from abroad, and working in healthcare or outside of home. When positivity peaked December 2020-January 2021 (Alpha), high positivity shifted to southern geographical regions. With national vaccine roll-out from December 2020, positivity reduced in vaccinated individuals. Associations attenuated as rates decreased between February-May 2021. Rising positivity rates in June-July 2021 (Delta) were independently higher in younger, male, and unvaccinated groups. Few factors were consistently associated with positivity. 25/45 (56%) confirmed associations would have been detected later using 28-day rather than 14-day periods. INTERPRETATION: Population-level demographic and behavioural surveillance can be a valuable tool in identifying the varying characteristics driving current SARS-CoV-2 positivity, allowing monitoring to inform public health policy. FUNDING: Department of Health and Social Care (UK), Welsh Government, Department of Health (on behalf of the Northern Ireland Government), Scottish Government, National Institute for Health Research

Associations between fruit and vegetable intake, leisure-time physical activity, sitting time and self-rated health among older adults : cross-sectional data from the WELL study

BackgroundLifestyle behaviours, such as healthy diet, physical activity and sedentary behaviour, are key elements of healthy ageing and important modifiable risk factors in the prevention of chronic diseases. Little is known about the relationship between these behaviours in older adults. The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship between fruit and vegetable (F&amp;V) intake, leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) and sitting time (ST), and their association with self-rated health in older adults.MethodsThis cross-sectional study comprised 3,644 older adults (48% men) aged 55-65 years, who participated in the Wellbeing, Eating and Exercise for a Long Life (&quot;WELL&quot;) study. Respondents completed a postal survey about their health and their eating and physical activity behaviours in 2010 (38% response rate). Spearman\u27s coefficient (rho) was used to evaluate the relationship between F&amp;V intake, LTPA and ST. Their individual and shared associations with self-rated health were examined using ordinal logistic regression models, stratified by sex and adjusted for confounders (BMI, smoking, long-term illness and socio-demographic characteristics).ResultsThe correlations between F&amp;V intake, LTPA and ST were low. F&amp;V intake and LTPA were positively associated with self-rated health. Each additional serving of F&amp;V or MET-hour of LTPA were associated with approximately 10% higher likelihood of reporting health as good or better among women and men. The association between ST and self-rated health was not significant in the multivariate analysis. A significant interaction was found (ST*F&amp;V intake). The effect of F&amp;V intake on self-rated health increased with increasing ST in women, whereas the effect decreased with increasing ST in men.ConclusionThis study contributes to the scarce literature related to lifestyle behaviours and their association with health indicators among older adults. The findings suggest that a modest increase in F&amp;V intake, or LTPA could have a marked effect on the health of older adults. Further research is needed to fully understand the correlates and determinants of lifestyle behaviours, particularly sitting time, in this age group

Escherichia coli induces apoptosis and proliferation of mammary cells

Mammary cell apoptosis and proliferation were assessed after injection of Escherichia coli into the left mammary quarters of six cows. Bacteriological analysis of foremilk samples revealed coliform infection in the injected quarters of four cows. Milk somatic cell counts increased in these quarters and peaked at 24 h after bacterial injection. Body temperature also increased, peaking at 12 h postinjection, The number of apoptotic cells was significantly higher in the mastitic tissue than in the uninfected control. Expression of Bax and interleukin-1 beta converting enzyme increased in the mastitic tissue at 24 h and 72 h postinfection, whereas Bcl-2 expression decreased at 24 h but did not differ significantly from the control at 72 h postinfection, Induction of matrix metalloproteinase-g, stromelysin-1 and urokinase-type plasminogen activator was also observed in the mastitic tissue. Moreover, cell proliferation increased in the infected tissue, These results demonstrate that Escherichia coli-induced mastitis promotes apoptosis and cell proliferation