A 2017 Horizon Scan of Emerging Issues for Global Conservation and Biological Diversity

We present the results of our eighth annual horizon scan of emerging issues likely to affect global biological diversity, the environment, and conservation efforts in the future. The potential effects of these novel issues might not yet be fully recognized or understood by the global conservation community, and the issues can be regarded as both opportunities and risks. A diverse international team with collective expertise in horizon scanning, science communication, and conservation research, practice, and policy reviewed 100 potential issues and identified 15 that qualified as emerging, with potential substantial global effects. These issues include new developments in energy storage and fuel production, sand extraction, potential solutions to combat coral bleaching and invasive marine species, and blockchain technology.Cambridge Conservation Initiative, funded by the Natural Environment Research Council and the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, Arcadia, Natural Environment Research Council (Grant ID: NE/N014472/1

HPV infection and number of lifetime sexual partners are strong predictors for ‘natural’ regression of CIN 2 and 3

The aim of this paper was to evaluate the factors that predict regression of untreated CIN 2 and 3. A total of 93 patients with colposcopic persistent CIN 2 and 3 lesions after biopsy were followed for 6 months. Human papillomavirus (HPV) types were determined by polymerase chain reaction at enrolment. We analysed the biologic and demographic predictors of natural regression using univariate and multivariate methods. The overall regression rate was 52% (48 out of 93), including 58% (22 out of 38) of CIN 2 and 47% (26 out of 55) of CIN 3 lesions (P=0.31 for difference). Human papillomavirus was detected in 84% (78 out of 93) of patients. In univariate analysis, 80% (12 out of 15) of lesions without HPV regressed compared to 46% (36 out of 78) of lesions with HPV infection (P=0.016). Women without HPV and those who had a resolution of HPV had a four-fold higher chance of regression than those with persistent HPV (relative odds=3.5, 95% CI=1.4-8.6). Women with five or fewer lifetime sexual partners had higher rates of regression than women with more than five partners (P=0.003). In multivariate analysis, HPV status and number of sexual partners remained as significant independent predictors of regression. In conclusion, HPV status and number of lifetime sexual partners were strongly predictive of regression of untreated CIN 2 and 3

Savannahs of Asia: Antiquity, biogeography, and an uncertain future

The savannahs of Asia remain locally unrecognized as distinctive ecosystems, and continue to be viewed as degraded forests or seasonally dry tropical forests. These colonial-era legacies are problematic, because they fail to recognize the unique diversity of Asian savannahs and the critical roles of fire and herbivory in maintaining ecosystem health and diversity. In this review, we show that: the palaeo-historical evidence suggests that the savannahs of Asia have existed for at least 1 million years, long before widespread landscape modification by humans; savannah regions across Asia have levels of C4 grass endemism and diversity that are consistent with area-based expectations for non-Asian savannahs; there are at least three distinct Asian savannah communities, namely deciduous broadleaf savannahs, deciduous fine-leafed and spiny savannahs and evergreen pine savannahs, with distinct functional ecologies consistent with fire- and herbivory-driven community assembly. Via an analysis of savannah climate domains on other continents, we map the potential extent of savannahs across Asia. We find that the climates of African savannahs provide the closest analogues for those of Asian deciduous savannahs, but that Asian pine savannahs occur in climates different to any of the savannahs in the southern continents. Finally, we review major threats to the persistence of savannahs in Asia, including the mismanagement of fire and herbivory, alien woody encroachment, afforestation policies and future climate uncertainty associated with the changing Asian monsoon. Research agendas that target these issues are urgently needed to manage and conserve these ecosystems. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Tropical grassy biomes: linking ecology, human use and conservation’

A Sub-Cellular Viscoelastic Model for Cell Population Mechanics

Understanding the biomechanical properties and the effect of biomechanical force on epithelial cells is key to understanding how epithelial cells form uniquely shaped structures in two or three-dimensional space. Nevertheless, with the limitations and challenges posed by biological experiments at this scale, it becomes advantageous to use mathematical and ‘in silico’ (computational) models as an alternate solution. This paper introduces a single-cell-based model representing the cross section of a typical tissue. Each cell in this model is an individual unit containing several sub-cellular elements, such as the elastic plasma membrane, enclosed viscoelastic elements that play the role of cytoskeleton, and the viscoelastic elements of the cell nucleus. The cell membrane is divided into segments where each segment (or point) incorporates the cell's interaction and communication with other cells and its environment. The model is capable of simulating how cells cooperate and contribute to the overall structure and function of a particular tissue; it mimics many aspects of cellular behavior such as cell growth, division, apoptosis and polarization. The model allows for investigation of the biomechanical properties of cells, cell-cell interactions, effect of environment on cellular clusters, and how individual cells work together and contribute to the structure and function of a particular tissue. To evaluate the current approach in modeling different topologies of growing tissues in distinct biochemical conditions of the surrounding media, we model several key cellular phenomena, namely monolayer cell culture, effects of adhesion intensity, growth of epithelial cell through interaction with extra-cellular matrix (ECM), effects of a gap in the ECM, tensegrity and tissue morphogenesis and formation of hollow epithelial acini. The proposed computational model enables one to isolate the effects of biomechanical properties of individual cells and the communication between cells and their microenvironment while simultaneously allowing for the formation of clusters or sheets of cells that act together as one complex tissue

Prenatal Stress and Balance of the Child's Cardiac Autonomic Nervous System at Age 5-6 Years

Objective: Autonomic nervous system (ANS) misbalance is a potential causal factor in the development of cardiovascular disease. The ANS may be programmed during pregnancy due to various maternal factors. Our aim is to study maternal prenatal psychosocial stress as a potential disruptor of cardiac ANS balance in the child. Methods: Mothers from a prospective birth cohort (ABCD study) filled out a questionnaire at gestational week 16 [IQR 12– 20], that included validated instruments for state anxiety, depressive symptoms, pregnancy-related anxiety, parenting daily hassles and job strain. A cumulative stress score was also calculated (based on 80 th percentiles). Indicators of cardiac ANS in the offspring at age 5–6 years are: pre-ejection period (PEP), heart rate (HR), respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) and cardiac autonomic balance (CAB), measured with electrocardiography and impedance cardiography in resting supine and sitting positions. Results: 2,624 mother-child pairs, only single births, were available for analysis. The stress scales were not significantly associated with HR, PEP, RSA and CAB (p$0.17). Accumulation of maternal stress was also not associated with HR, PEP, RSA and CAB (p$0.07). Conclusion: Results did not support the hypothesis that prenatal maternal psychosocial stress deregulates cardiac AN

Aerobic Exercise during Pregnancy and Presence of Fetal-Maternal Heart Rate Synchronization

It has been shown that short-term direct interaction between maternal and fetal heart rates may take place and that this interaction is affected by the rate of maternal respiration. The aim of this study was to determine the effect of maternal aerobic exercise during pregnancy on the occurrence of fetal-maternal heart rate synchronization.In 40 pregnant women at the 36th week of gestation, 21 of whom exercised regularly, we acquired 18 min. RR interval time series obtained simultaneously in the mothers and their fetuses from magnetocardiographic recordings. The time series of the two groups were examined with respect to their heart rate variability, the maternal respiratory rate and the presence of synchronization epochs as determined on the basis of synchrograms. Surrogate data were used to assess whether the occurrence of synchronization was due to chance.In the original data, we found synchronization occurred less often in pregnancies in which the mothers had exercised regularly. These subjects also displayed higher combined fetal-maternal heart rate variability and lower maternal respiratory rates. Analysis of the surrogate data showed shorter epochs of synchronization and a lack of the phase coordination found between maternal and fetal beat timing in the original data.The results suggest that fetal-maternal heart rate coupling is present but generally weak. Maternal exercise has a damping effect on its occurrence, most likely due to an increase in beat-to-beat differences, higher vagal tone and slower breathing rates

Utilisation of an operative difficulty grading scale for laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Background A reliable system for grading operative difficulty of laparoscopic cholecystectomy would standardise description of findings and reporting of outcomes. The aim of this study was to validate a difficulty grading system (Nassar scale), testing its applicability and consistency in two large prospective datasets. Methods Patient and disease-related variables and 30-day outcomes were identified in two prospective cholecystectomy databases: the multi-centre prospective cohort of 8820 patients from the recent CholeS Study and the single-surgeon series containing 4089 patients. Operative data and patient outcomes were correlated with Nassar operative difficultly scale, using Kendall’s tau for dichotomous variables, or Jonckheere–Terpstra tests for continuous variables. A ROC curve analysis was performed, to quantify the predictive accuracy of the scale for each outcome, with continuous outcomes dichotomised, prior to analysis. Results A higher operative difficulty grade was consistently associated with worse outcomes for the patients in both the reference and CholeS cohorts. The median length of stay increased from 0 to 4 days, and the 30-day complication rate from 7.6 to 24.4% as the difficulty grade increased from 1 to 4/5 (both p < 0.001). In the CholeS cohort, a higher difficulty grade was found to be most strongly associated with conversion to open and 30-day mortality (AUROC = 0.903, 0.822, respectively). On multivariable analysis, the Nassar operative difficultly scale was found to be a significant independent predictor of operative duration, conversion to open surgery, 30-day complications and 30-day reintervention (all p < 0.001). Conclusion We have shown that an operative difficulty scale can standardise the description of operative findings by multiple grades of surgeons to facilitate audit, training assessment and research. It provides a tool for reporting operative findings, disease severity and technical difficulty and can be utilised in future research to reliably compare outcomes according to case mix and intra-operative difficulty

Percepção de estudantes de psicologia sobre a informática em sua formação profissional

Neste artigo analisa-se uma pesquisa de natureza qualitativa, cujo objetivo era explorar a percepção de 45 alunos de psicologia de diferentes universidades da cidade de Santiago do Chile, sobre a incorporação da informática como apoio para a aprendizagem em sua formação profissional. A informação foi coletada através de entrevistas semiestruturadas e analisou-se mediante o processo de codificação da Teoría Fundamentada. Os resultados mostram como categorias principais, o conhecimento da informática, a valoração da informática, e os fatores que obstaculizam o uso desta. Da codificação seletiva se desprende uma alta valoração da informática como ferramenta econômica e cômoda, mas também se observa uma alta reticência dos alunos diante de sua utilização no trabalho profissional tradicional do psicólogo. Encontraram-se fatores pessoais e institucionais nos que se baseia a valoração, a motivação e o nível de conhecimento dos estudantes diante do uso de ferramentas informáticas.This paper analyses a qualitative research aimed to exploring the perception of 45 psychology students from different universities in Santiago de Chile, about incorporating information systems to support learning in their professional training. Data were collected through semi structured interviews and their analysis was based on Grounded Theory's coding process. Results show that the major categories are computer knowledge, appreciation of computers and factors that hinder their use. From the selective coding a positive evaluation emerges of information systems as an economic and useful tool. However, there is also a high reluctance on the part of the students regarding the use of such tools in the psychologist' traditional professional work. Personal and organizational factors were found as bases for students' assessment, motivation and level of knowledge facing the use of these tools.En este artículo se analiza una investigación de naturaleza cualitativa, cuyo objetivo era explorar la percepción de 45 alumnos de psicología de diferentes universidades de la ciudad de Santiago de Chile, sobre la incorporación de la informática como apoyo para el aprendizaje en su formación profesional. La información se recolectó a través de entrevistas semiestructuradas y se analizó mediante el proceso de codificación de la Teoría Fundamentada. Los resultados muestran como categorías principales, el conocimiento de la informática, la valoración de la informática, y los factores que obstaculizan el uso de ésta. De la codificación selectiva se desprende una alta valoración de la informática como herramienta económica y cómoda, pero también se observa una alta reticencia de los alumnos frente a su utilización en el trabajo profesional tradicional del psicólogo. Se encontraron factores personales e institucionales en los cuales se fundamenta la valoración, la motivación y el nivel de conocimiento de los estudiantes frente al uso de herramientas informáticas

Search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum in pp collisions at √ s = 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Results of a search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum are reported. The search uses 20.3 fb−1 of √ s = 8 TeV data collected in 2012 with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. Events are required to have at least one jet with pT > 120 GeV and no leptons. Nine signal regions are considered with increasing missing transverse momentum requirements between Emiss T > 150 GeV and Emiss T > 700 GeV. Good agreement is observed between the number of events in data and Standard Model expectations. The results are translated into exclusion limits on models with either large extra spatial dimensions, pair production of weakly interacting dark matter candidates, or production of very light gravitinos in a gauge-mediated supersymmetric model. In addition, limits on the production of an invisibly decaying Higgs-like boson leading to similar topologies in the final state are presente

Jet energy measurement with the ATLAS detector in proton-proton collisions at root s=7 TeV

The jet energy scale and its systematic uncertainty are determined for jets measured with the ATLAS detector at the LHC in proton-proton collision data at a centre-of-mass energy of √s = 7TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 38 pb-1. Jets are reconstructed with the anti-kt algorithm with distance parameters R=0. 4 or R=0. 6. Jet energy and angle corrections are determined from Monte Carlo simulations to calibrate jets with transverse momenta pT≥20 GeV and pseudorapidities {pipe}η{pipe}<4. 5. The jet energy systematic uncertainty is estimated using the single isolated hadron response measured in situ and in test-beams, exploiting the transverse momentum balance between central and forward jets in events with dijet topologies and studying systematic variations in Monte Carlo simulations. The jet energy uncertainty is less than 2. 5 % in the central calorimeter region ({pipe}η{pipe}<0. 8) for jets with 60≤pT<800 GeV, and is maximally 14 % for pT<30 GeV in the most forward region 3. 2≤{pipe}η{pipe}<4. 5. The jet energy is validated for jet transverse momenta up to 1 TeV to the level of a few percent using several in situ techniques by comparing a well-known reference such as the recoiling photon pT, the sum of the transverse momenta of tracks associated to the jet, or a system of low-pT jets recoiling against a high-pT jet. More sophisticated jet calibration schemes are presented based on calorimeter cell energy density weighting or hadronic properties of jets, aiming for an improved jet energy resolution and a reduced flavour dependence of the jet response. The systematic uncertainty of the jet energy determined from a combination of in situ techniques is consistent with the one derived from single hadron response measurements over a wide kinematic range. The nominal corrections and uncertainties are derived for isolated jets in an inclusive sample of high-pT jets. Special cases such as event topologies with close-by jets, or selections of samples with an enhanced content of jets originating from light quarks, heavy quarks or gluons are also discussed and the corresponding uncertainties are determined. © 2013 CERN for the benefit of the ATLAS collaboration