The Investment Incentives Effects of Land Use Regulations

This paper provides an overview and synthesis of the results from recent studies of how different types of land use regulations affect land development incentives. The presentation is nontechnical and focuses on uncovering general principles for the dynamic effects of such policies. It explains why the risk of regulation leads to faster development of unregulated land and how the effect on structural densities reflects the underlying pattern of growth in the demand for land by competing uses. It also discusses how the general pattern of timing and density responses for regulated property reflect the same growth patterns in demand. Working Paper No. 03-0

Housing the Aging Baby Boomers: Implications for Local Policy

Most elderly want to age in place. Yet, most elderly live in suburban and rural communities ill-suited to meet the changing aging-related demands. This paper discusses various issues communities need to address when balancing the demands of aging baby boomers against those of younger households. Accommodating changes in life stage needs requires revising building and zoning codes to permit mixed use and mixed density development incorporating greater varieties of housing units and easier accessibility. Developing support arrangements for naturally occurring retirement communities will become important for state and local governments. A significant number of aging adults will move to locales with natural and augmented civic amenities. Such migration is double-edged; features that attract "gray gold" also attract needy elderly. Finally, affordable housing will be an issue for a growing number of elderly, calling for targeted tax and financial assistance policies for lower income elderly homeowners. Working Paper 08-0

Drive ‘Til You Qualify: Credit Quality and Household Location

A deeper understanding of the credit-sorting process is essential when considering the extent to which home foreclosures are driven by price contagion or an underlying spatial pattern of mortgage quality. Adapting household location theory, we find that credit constrained households follow “drive-\u27til-you-qualify” behavior leading to rising credit quality with distance from the CBD while unconstrained households exhibit declining credit quality. Individual level mortgage loan-to-income data for the 100 largest MSAs show credit constrained behavior either throughout the urban area or concentrated in the suburbs. Meta analysis of the credit sorting estimates identify MSA characteristics associated with each pattern

The Legacy Effect of Squatter Settlements on Urban Redevelopment

The paper presents a theoretical model that seeks to answer the question of why former squatter settlements tend to upgrade/redevelop at a slower pace than otherwise similar settlements originating in the formal sector. We argue that squatter settlers’ initial strategy to access urban land creates a ‘legacy effect’ that curtails settlement upgrading possibilities even after the settlements are granted property titles. We test our model using the case of Cochabamba, Bolivia and obtain results consistent with our theoretical model prediction. Our results suggest that the commonly used ‘benign neglect while keeping the threat of eviction’ policy has profound impacts on how land is developed in the informal sector and this poses costly consequences for local governments after legalization.squatters, informal settlements, urban development, neighbourhood upgrading, urban redevelopment

Price Formation under Small Numbers Competition: Evidence from Land Auctions in Singapore

This paper examines the price formation process under small numbers competition using data from Singapore land auctions. The theory predicts that bid prices are less than the zero-profit asset value in these first-price sealed-bid auctions. The model also shows that expected sales price increases with the number of bidders both because each bidder has an incentive to offer a higher price and because of a greater likelihood that a high-value bidder is present. The empirical estimates are consistent with auction theory and show that the standard land attributes are reflected in auction prices as expected. Working Paper No. 04-0

List Price Information in Residential Appraisal and Underwriting

This article examines the usefulness of listing prices as leading indicators of house values and as predictors of the direction of housing markets. With Multiple Listing Service data from a large metropolitan area, we create two price indexes, using first listing price and then selling price as the dependent variable in the hedonic regressions. The market is then geographically and categorically segmented, and Granger causality tests are performed to analyze the leading aspect of list prices in the list price-sales price relationship. We find that different segments of the market perform quite differently over the time period of our study, suggesting that for data-based appraisal purposes care is needed in determining the manner and level of aggregation. We also find, however, that market list prices continue to convey important information about subsequent selling prices in most market segments.