The risk of rabies spread in Japan: a mathematical modeling assessment

Rabies was eliminated from Japan in 1957. In the 60 years since elimination, vaccination coverage has declined and dog ownership habits have changed. The purpose of this study was to assess the current risk of rabies spread in Japan. A spatially explicit transmission model was developed at the 1 km2 grid scale for Hokkaido and Ibaraki Prefectures. Parameters associated with dog movement and bite injuries were estimated using historical records from Japan, and were used with previously published epidemiological parameters. The final epidemic size, efficacy of rabies contingency plans and the influence of dog owner responses to incursions were assessed by the model. Average outbreak sizes for dog rabies were 3.1 and 4.7 dogs in Hokkaido and Ibaraki Prefectures, respectively. Average number of bite injury cases were 4.4 and 6.7 persons in Hokkaido and Ibaraki Prefectures, respectively. Discontinuation of mandatory vaccination increased outbreak sizes in these prefectures. Sensitivity analyses showed that higher chance of unintentional release of rabid dogs by their owners (from 0.5 to 0.9 probability) increased outbreak size twofolds. Our model outputs suggested that at present, incursions of rabies into Japan are very unlikely to cause large outbreaks. Critically, the reaction of dog owners to their dogs developing rabies considerably impacts the course of outbreaks. Contingency measures should therefore include sensitisation of dog owners

The reports of questionnaire about the diagnosis and prevention of weak calf syndrome in calves

A questionnaire survey aiming to elucidate the perception among veterinarians on the association between diarrhea in calves and Weak Calf Syndrome (WCS) was conducted in Japan, and 248 veterinarians in 39 prefectures answered the questionnaire. Among the respondents, 85.5% belonged to NOSAI (Farmers’ Mutual Aid Association), 3.2% were independent veterinarians, 5.2% were herd management service veterinarians, and 6.5% answered others. Male were 83.5%, and female 16.5%. Questionnaire covered reasons of WCS, diagnosis and prevention, characteristics of well-managed farms with fewer cases of diarrhea, and collection of information on calf diarrhea. Regarding the contribution of WCS on diarrhea, 77.8% answered that the contribution is large or non-negligible, and 56.3% answered that the proportion of diarrhea with WCS is less than 5%, and 22.1% answered that the proportion is more than 10%. According to the cattle breeds which the veterinarian deals with mainly, the proportion of answering that WCS affects diarrhea greatly or non-negligibly was significantly higher among those who deal with Holstein (Hol, 64/92, 69.5%) breed than Japanese Black (JB, 91/110, 82.7%, x2 = 4.2, df = 1, p = 0.04). The most common two answers for the cause of WCS were pedigree and nutritional status at the late stage of pregnancy, and especially veterinarians of 40s and 50s age raised pedigree. Nutrition status at fetus stage, and history of colostrum feeding were second and third common answers. When the respondents are stratified by main breeds dealing with, both groups dealing with Hol and JB prioritized pedigree and nutritional status at the late stage of pregnancy. However, Hol group tended to raise accidents at delivery and infection in fetus, while JB group pedigree and nutrition at fetus stage, in the second place. Most common criterion of diagnosis with WCS was light body weight, and low vitality, weak suckling of colostrum followed, and as higher age, larger proportion answered light body weight. Most common counter major against WCS was nutrition management around delivery, which accounted more than 50%, and selection of pedigree at insemination and colostrum management followed. Common answers as the second rank were suckling and environmental hygiene management after delivery. Veterinarians chose hygiene, delivery - colostrum management, skill for observation, and feeding management commonly as characteristic of good practice farms with fewer diarrhea; however the proportions varied. For the same question, Hol group tended to answer delivery – colostrum management, while JB group feeding management. As shown above, the perception of WCS among veterinarians differed according to their age and the main cattle breeds dealing with

Food safety research for development in sub-Saharan Africa: Tapping the expertise of German partners

According to recent estimates by the World Health Organization, the global burden of foodborne diseases is comparable to that of HIV/AIDS or tuberculosis or malaria. Up to 90% of foodborne disease is caused by microbes in perishable foods of which more than 80% are sold in the informal agri-food system. Informal markets, also referred to as wet or traditional markets, are characterized by local products, prices, and marketing channels where actors are often not trained, not licensed, and not paying taxes. However, these markets provide food and jobs to millions of people in sub-Saharan Africa. They are also the major markets for most smallholder producers of fresh foods. Lack of evidence on attribution data and limited understanding of risk-based approaches in food safety management only worsen the problem. The Safe Food, Fair Food project, funded by GIZ and led by the International Livestock Research Institute, aims to improve the livelihoods of poor producers and consumers by reducing the health risks and increasing the livelihood benefits associated with meat, milk and fish value chains in sub-Saharan Africa. From 2008-2015 the project was implemented in ten countries South of the Sahara with partners from Africa, Germany and Japan. Key findings include: • Informal markets are integral to food, nutrition and job security in sub-Saharan Africa; • Although hazards are often common in informal markets risk to human health is not necessarily high; • Risks in the informal food chains have been under-researched and need attention; • Risks vary and may not be as serious as perceived: food safety policy should be based on evidence not perceptions; • Participatory methods are useful in studying food safety risks in informal food chains; • Simple interventions could lead to substantial improvements: potable water, electricity, training, standards, appropriate hygienic supervision etc.; • Food safety needs a multi-disciplinary (One Health) and multi-sectoral approach; • Comprehensive, jointly developed and implemented policies are prerequisites for food safety assurance. German partner institutions engaged were the Federal Institute for Risk Assessment (BfR), Freie Universität Berlin, Friedrich-Löffler-Institute, and University of Stuttgart-Hohenheim. More than 30 food safety practitioners, students and scientists were trained in specific laboratory methods for hazard identification (i.e. Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella spp., Toxoplasma gondii or Trichinella spp.) at German partner institutes or in their home countries, and field isolates were archived at German partner institutes. More than 200 key stakeholders at over 35 institutions in 12 countries were trained on the concepts of risk-based approaches and (participatory) risk assessment. Joint risk assessments and pilot interventions for improving food safety have been disseminated in 15 peer-reviewed journal publications and more than 200 other outputs

Boiled milk, food safety and the risk of exposure to milk borne pathogens in informal dairy markets in Tanzania

In Tanzania, more than 80% of the milk consumed is marketed as loose, raw milk. On the other hand, the practice of boiling milk before consumption is very common. The study was carried out to establish food safety status of informally marketed milk including boiled milk. Milk samples were collected in four wards of Temeke Municipality of Dar es salaam. A total of 69, 44 and 7 milk samples were collected from randomly selected farmers, milk kiosks and all milk vendors. The bacteriological quality of the milk with respect to Total Bacterial Counts (TBC) and Escherichia coli was lower at milk vendors level than farm and milk kiosk. The TBC of raw milk was found to be an average of 2.8 ± 0.98 x 106 cfu/ml at producer level, 3.4 ± 2.6 x 107 cfu/ml at vendor’s level and 4.8 ± 3.3 x 107 cfu/ml at kiosk level. TBC values for kiosk milk boiled and served hot was also determined and found to be an average of 3.7 ± 2.3 x 105 cfu/ml. The samples were analysed for presence of toxin producing Staphylococcus aureus. Exposure assessment showed that the probability of purchasing boiled milk contaminated with S. aureus, served hot at kiosks was 0.227 (90%CI: 0.062-0.436). It was estimated that every day, 953 (90%CI: 718-1,249) people purchase milk from kiosks in peri-urban Temeke, and among them, 217 (90%CI: 62-427) people were likely to purchase contaminated milk. The present study found that while boiling made milk generally safer by killing most pathogens, it still carries the risk of consumer exposure to pathogenic bacteria due to possible recontamination

Safe Food, Fair Food: Participatory risk analysis for improving the safety of informally produced and marketed food in sub-Saharan Africa

Millions of small-scale farmers efficiently supply the great majority of the meat and milk market in Africa. Surging demand for livestock products (the “livestock revolution”) is an unprecedented opportunity for setting poor farmers on pathways out of poverty, but to gain maximum benefit they must be able to produce safe food of acceptable quality. Currently, most smallholder livestock products are sold in informal markets where conventional regulation and inspection methods have failed and where private or civil sector alternatives have not emerged: as a consequence, most livestock-derived food products contain high levels of hazards. Quantitative risk-based approaches for assessing and managing food safety offer a powerful new method for reducing the enormous health burden imposed by food borne disease, while taking into account other societal goals such as pro-poor growth. However, application to food safety problems in Africa has been limited. We discuss some of the constraints and a new approach which can help overcome these: Participatory Risk Analysis, and give examples of its current application in west, east and south Africa