Evaluation of simulated responses to climate forcings: a flexible statistical framework using confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modelling – Part 2: Numerical experiment

The performance of a new statistical framework, developed for the evaluation of simulated temperature responses to climate forcings against temperature reconstructions derived from climate proxy data for the last millennium, is evaluated in a so-called pseudo-proxy experiment, where the true unobservable temperature is replaced with output data from a selected simulation with a climate model. Being an extension of the statistical model used in many detection and attribution (D&amp;A) studies, the framework under study involves two main types of statistical models, each of which is based on the concept of latent (unobservable) variables: confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) models and structural equation modelling (SEM) models. Within the present pseudo-proxy experiment, each statistical model was fitted to seven continental-scale regional data sets. In addition, their performance for each defined region was compared to the performance of the corresponding statistical model used in D&amp;A studies. The results of this experiment indicated that the SEM specification is the most appropriate one for describing the underlying latent structure of the simulated temperature data in question. The conclusions of the experiment have been confirmed in a cross-validation study, presuming the availability of several simulation data sets within each studied region. Since the experiment is performed only for zero noise level in the pseudo-proxy data, all statistical models, chosen as final regional models, await further investigation to thoroughly test their performance for realistic levels of added noise, similar to what is found in real proxy data for past temperature variations.</p

Evaluation of simulated responses to climate forcings: a flexible statistical framework using confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modelling – Part 1: Theory

Evaluation of climate model simulations is a crucial task in climate research. Here, a new statistical framework is proposed for evaluation of simulated temperature responses to climate forcings against temperature reconstructions derived from climate proxy data for the last millennium. The framework includes two types of statistical models, each of which is based on the concept of latent (unobservable) variables: confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) models and structural equation modelling (SEM) models. Each statistical model presented is developed for use with data from a single region, which can be of any size. The ideas behind the framework arose partly from a statistical model used in many detection and attribution (D&amp;A) studies. Focusing on climatological characteristics of five specific forcings of natural and anthropogenic origin, the present work theoretically motivates an extension of the statistical model used in D&amp;A studies to CFA and SEM models, which allow, for example, for non-climatic noise in observational data without assuming the additivity of the forcing effects. The application of the ideas of CFA is exemplified in a small numerical study, whose aim was to check the assumptions typically placed on ensembles of climate model simulations when constructing mean sequences. The result of this study indicated that some ensembles for some regions may not satisfy the assumptions in question.</p

Growth performance and age composition of Salmo trutta caspius in Iranian part of Caspian Sea

The aim of this project is to study the growth and age structure in the Caspian trout, comparison with other coldwater species and check the trend of these parameters in recent years. This study was conducted during 2013 till 2015. Totally, 43 specimens for back calculation and 101 specimens for biometrical study of the Caspian trout have been caught in two month period. Biometric parameters such as length, weight and age of the fish were recorded. Base on Back calculation method in 1393, the average length of fish at ages 1, 2 and 3 years old were 18.98 ± 3.5, 30.5 ± 7.24 and 41.7 ± 9.1 cm. So these age groups are under the adult age and don’t approaching to near the beach and rivers for spawning behavior. Therefore, these length groups cannot be observed in catch composition. The result showed, the mean of gonad weight in this fish was about 11 percent of total weight and number of eggs per gram of gonad calculated about 10.8 numbers. Minimum age and maximum age of this species determined 4 years and 7 years (mean = 5.6) and the most frequency allocated to 5 age group and the frequency of 6 and 7 years has been remarkable. The average length of salmon was 69.2 ± 6.2 cm (minimum 57 and maximum 81 cm) and the average weight was measured 3323 ± 677 g (2400 to 5600 g) in the catch composition. Growth parameters such as k, L_∞ and ø’ was measured 0.18, 104 cm and 3.289 respectively. The amount of b for relation length and weight was 2.9 which imply negative allometry. L_∞ and growth coefficient (K) on the Caspian trout were acceptable range, that it shows good growth the fish in the sea water. Most of the fishes were catched from Cheshmehkileh River. As at present Shilat uses just the broods of the Tonekaboon region for restocking of this species, we recommend using the broods of the western region separately for rehabilitation of the stocks of this region

Hardness, Decay and Water Resistance of Polypropylene/Montmorillonite/Almond Shell Flour Composites

The effect of montmorillonite (MMT) loading (0, 2.5, and 5 wt%) and almond shell flour (ASF) content (30, 35, and 40 wt%) on the decay resistance, hardness, water resistance of injection molded polypropylene (PP) composites was investigated. The amount of maleic anhydride grafted polypropylene was kept constant at 2% for all formulations. White-rot (Trametes versicolor) fungal treatment was applied to the produced composites for 14 weeks according to BS 838:1961 with the Petri dishes method. The weight loss of the composites decreased with increasing MMT content. The highest hardness (66 Shore D) was noted in the undecayed control composites (40ASF60PP0MMT) while the lowest hardness (61.3 Shore D) was recorded in the decayed control composites (30ASF70PP0MMT). The water absorption of the undecayed and decayed composites decreased with increasing amount montmorillonite at 30-40 wt% content of the ASF loading level. The water absorption of the decayed composites was higher than that of the undecayed composites but their thickness swelling was lower. Based on the findings obtained from the present study, a 35/5/65/2 formulation of the ASF/MMT/PP/MAPP can be used in outdoor applications requiring a high dimensional stability