Estimates of Eddy Heat Flux Crossing the Antarctic Circumpolar Current from Observations in Drake Passage

The 4-yr measurements by current- and pressure-recording inverted echo sounders in Drake Passage produced statistically stable eddy heat flux estimates. Horizontal currents in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) turn with depth when a depth-independent geostrophic current crosses the upper baroclinic zone. The dynamically important divergent component of eddy heat flux is calculated. Whereas full eddy heat fluxes differ greatly in magnitude and direction at neighboring locations within the local dynamics array (LDA), the divergent eddy heat fluxes are poleward almost everywhere. Case studies illustrate baroclinic instability events that cause meanders to grow rapidly. In the southern passage, where eddy variability is weak, heat fluxes are weak and not statistically significant. Vertical profiles of heat flux are surface intensified with ~50% above 1000 m and uniformly distributed with depth below. Summing poleward transient eddy heat transport across the LDA of −0.010 ± 0.005 PW with the stationary meander contribution of −0.004 ± 0.001 PW yields −0.013 ± 0.005 PW. A comparison metric, −0.4 PW, represents the total oceanic heat loss to the atmosphere south of 60°S. Summed along the circumpolar ACC path, if the LDA heat flux occurred at six “hot spots” spanning similar or longer path segments, this could account for 20%–70% of the metric, that is, up to −0.28 PW. The balance of ocean poleward heat transport along the remaining ACC path should come from weak eddy heat fluxes plus mean cross-front temperature transports. Alternatively, the metric −0.4 PW, having large uncertainty, may be high

Formalization of hydrocarbon conversion scheme of catalytic cracking for mathematical model development

The issue of improving the energy and resource efficiency of advanced petroleum processing can be solved by the development of adequate mathematical model based on physical and chemical regularities of process reactions with a high predictive potential in the advanced petroleum refining. In this work, the development of formalized hydrocarbon conversion scheme of catalytic cracking was performed using thermodynamic parameters of reaction defined by the Density Functional Theory. The list of reaction was compiled according to the results of feedstock structural-group composition definition, which was done by the n-d-m-method, the Hazelvuda method, qualitative composition of feedstock defined by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry and individual composition of catalytic cracking gasoline fraction. Formalized hydrocarbon conversion scheme of catalytic cracking will become the basis for the development of the catalytic cracking kinetic model

Multi-source analysis reveals latitudinal and altitudinal shifts in range of Ixodes ricinus at its northern distribution limit

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>There is increasing evidence for a latitudinal and altitudinal shift in the distribution range of <it>Ixodes ricinus</it>. The reported incidence of tick-borne disease in humans is on the rise in many European countries and has raised political concern and attracted media attention. It is disputed which factors are responsible for these trends, though many ascribe shifts in distribution range to climate changes. Any possible climate effect would be most easily noticeable close to the tick's geographical distribution limits. In Norway- being the northern limit of this species in Europe- no documentation of changes in range has been published. The objectives of this study were to describe the distribution of <it>I. ricinus </it>in Norway and to evaluate if any range shifts have occurred relative to historical descriptions.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Multiple data sources - such as tick-sighting reports from veterinarians, hunters, and the general public - and surveillance of human and animal tick-borne diseases were compared to describe the present distribution of <it>I. ricinus </it>in Norway. Correlation between data sources and visual comparison of maps revealed spatial consistency. In order to identify the main spatial pattern of tick abundance, a principal component analysis (PCA) was used to obtain a weighted mean of four data sources. The weighted mean explained 67% of the variation of the data sources covering Norway's 430 municipalities and was used to depict the present distribution of <it>I. ricinus</it>. To evaluate if any geographical range shift has occurred in recent decades, the present distribution was compared to historical data from 1943 and 1983.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Tick-borne disease and/or observations of <it>I. ricinus </it>was reported in municipalities up to an altitude of 583 metres above sea level (MASL) and is now present in coastal municipalities north to approximately 69°N.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p><it>I. ricinus </it>is currently found further north and at higher altitudes than described in historical records. The approach used in this study, a multi-source analysis, proved useful to assess alterations in tick distribution.</p

Is the outpatient management of acute diverticulitis safe and effective? A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: In Western countries, the incidence of acute diverticulitis (AD) is increasing. Patients with uncomplicated diverticulitis can undergo a standard antibiotic treatment in an outpatient setting. The aim of this systematic review was to assess the safety and efficacy of the management of acute diverticulitis in an outpatient setting. Methods: A literature search was performed on PubMed, Scopus, Embase, Central and Web of Science up to September 2018. Studies including patients who had outpatient management of uncomplicated acute diverticulitis were considered. We manually checked the reference lists of all included studies to identify any additional studies. Primary outcome was the overall failure rates in the outpatient setting. The failure of outpatient setting was defined as any emergency hospital admission in patients who had outpatient treatment for AD in the previous 60 days. A subgroup analysis of failure was performed in patients with AD of the left colon, with or without comorbidities, with previous episodes of AD, in patients with diabetes, with different severity of AD (pericolic air and abdominal abscess), with or without antibiotic treatment, with ambulatory versus home care unit follow-up, with or without protocol and where outpatient management is a common practice. The secondary outcome was the rate of emergency surgical treatment or percutaneous drainage in patients who failed outpatient treatment. Results: This systematic review included 21 studies including 1781 patients who had outpatient management of AD including 11&nbsp;prospective, 9 retrospective and only 1 randomized trial. The meta-analysis showed that outpatient management is safe, and the overall failure rate in an outpatient setting was 4.3% (95% CI 2.6%-6.3%). Localization of diverticulitis is not a selection criterion for an outpatient strategy (p 0.512). The other subgroup analyses did not report any factors that influence the rate of failure: previous episodes of acute diverticulitis (p = 0.163), comorbidities (p = 0.187), pericolic air (p = 0.653), intra-abdominal abscess (p = 0.326), treatment according to a registered&nbsp;protocol (p = 0.078), type of follow-up (p = 0.700), type of antibiotic treatment (p = 0.647) or diabetes (p = 0.610). In patients who failed outpatient treatment, the majority had prolonged antibiotic therapy and only few had percutaneous drainage for an abscess (0.13%) or surgical intervention for perforation (0.06%). These results should be interpreted with some caution because of the low quality of available data. Conclusions: The outpatient management of AD can reduce the rate of emergency hospitalizations. This setting is already part of the common clinical practice of many emergency departments, in which a standardized protocol is followed. The data reported suggest that this management is safe if associated with an accurate selection of patients (40%); but no subgroup analysis demonstrated significant differences between groups (such as comorbidities, previous episode, diabetes). The main limitations of the findings of the present review concern their applicability in common clinical practice as it was impossible to identify strict criteria of failure

Is the outpatient management of acute diverticulitis safe and effective? A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: In Western countries, the incidence of acute diverticulitis (AD) is increasing. Patients with uncomplicated diverticulitis can undergo a standard antibiotic treatment in an outpatient setting. The aim of this systematic review was to assess the safety and efficacy of the management of acute diverticulitis in an outpatient setting. Methods: A literature search was performed on PubMed, Scopus, Embase, Central and Web of Science up to September 2018. Studies including patients who had outpatient management of uncomplicated acute diverticulitis were considered. We manually checked the reference lists of all included studies to identify any additional studies. Primary outcome was the overall failure rates in the outpatient setting. The failure of outpatient setting was defined as any emergency hospital admission in patients who had outpatient treatment for AD in the previous 60 days. A subgroup analysis of failure was performed in patients with AD of the left colon, with or without comorbidities, with previous episodes of AD, in patients with diabetes, with different severity of AD (pericolic air and abdominal abscess), with or without antibiotic treatment, with ambulatory versus home care unit follow-up, with or without protocol and where outpatient management is a common practice. The secondary outcome was the rate of emergency surgical treatment or percutaneous drainage in patients who failed outpatient treatment. Results: This systematic review included 21 studies including 1781 patients who had outpatient management of AD including 11&nbsp;prospective, 9 retrospective and only 1 randomized trial. The meta-analysis showed that outpatient management is safe, and the overall failure rate in an outpatient setting was 4.3% (95% CI 2.6%-6.3%). Localization of diverticulitis is not a selection criterion for an outpatient strategy (p 0.512). The other subgroup analyses did not report any factors that influence the rate of failure: previous episodes of acute diverticulitis (p = 0.163), comorbidities (p = 0.187), pericolic air (p = 0.653), intra-abdominal abscess (p = 0.326), treatment according to a registered&nbsp;protocol (p = 0.078), type of follow-up (p = 0.700), type of antibiotic treatment (p = 0.647) or diabetes (p = 0.610). In patients who failed outpatient treatment, the majority had prolonged antibiotic therapy and only few had percutaneous drainage for an abscess (0.13%) or surgical intervention for perforation (0.06%). These results should be interpreted with some caution because of the low quality of available data. Conclusions: The outpatient management of AD can reduce the rate of emergency hospitalizations. This setting is already part of the common clinical practice of many emergency departments, in which a standardized protocol is followed. The data reported suggest that this management is safe if associated with an accurate selection of patients (40%); but no subgroup analysis demonstrated significant differences between groups (such as comorbidities, previous episode, diabetes). The main limitations of the findings of the present review concern their applicability in common clinical practice as it was impossible to identify strict criteria of failure

Variable strength of forest stand attributes and weather conditions on the questing activity of Ixodes ricinus ticks over years in managed forests

Given the ever-increasing human impact through land use and climate change on the environment, we crucially need to achieve a better understanding of those factors that influence the questing activity of ixodid ticks, a major disease-transmitting vector in temperate forests. We investigated variation in the relative questing nymph densities of Ixodes ricinus in differently managed forest types for three years (2008–2010) in SW Germany by drag sampling. We used a hierarchical Bayesian modeling approach to examine the relative effects of habitat and weather and to consider possible nested structures of habitat and climate forces. The questing activity of nymphs was considerably larger in young forest successional stages of thicket compared with pole wood and timber stages. Questing nymph density increased markedly with milder winter temperatures. Generally, the relative strength of the various environmental forces on questing nymph density differed across years. In particular, winter temperature had a negative effect on tick activity across sites in 2008 in contrast to the overall effect of temperature across years. Our results suggest that forest management practices have important impacts on questing nymph density. Variable weather conditions, however, might override the effects of forest management practices on the fluctuations and dynamics of tick populations and activity over years, in particular, the preceding winter temperatures. Therefore, robust predictions and the detection of possible interactions and nested structures of habitat and climate forces can only be quantified through the collection of long-term data. Such data are particularly important with regard to future scenarios of forest management and climate warming

A weakly overlapping domain decomposition preconditioner for the finite element solution of elliptic partial differential equations

We present a new two-level additive Schwarz domain decomposition preconditioner which is appropriate for use in the parallel finite element solution of elliptic partial differential equations (PDEs). As with most parallel domain decomposition methods each processor may be assigned one or more subdomains, and the preconditioner is such that the processors are able to solve their own subproblem(s) concurrently. The novel feature of the technique proposed here is that it requires just a single layer of overlap in the elements which make up each subdomain at each level of refinement, and it is shown that this amount of overlap is sufficient to yield an optimal preconditioner. Some numerical experiments-posed in both two and three space dimensions-are included to confirm that the condition number when using the new preconditioner is indeed independent of the level of mesh refinement on the test problems considered