Early death during chemotherapy in patients with small-cell lung cancer: derivation of a prognostic index for toxic death and progression

Based on an increased frequency of early death (death within the first treatment cycle) in our two latest randomized trials of combination chemotherapy in small-cell lung cancer (SCLC), we wanted to identify patients at risk of early non-toxic death (ENTD) and early toxic death (ETD). Data were stored in a database and logistic regression analyses were performed to identify predictive factors for early death. During the first cycle, 118 out of 937 patients (12.6%) died. In 38 patients (4%), the cause of death was sepsis. Significant risk factors were age, performance status (PS), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and treatment with epipodophyllotoxins and platinum in the first cycle (EP). Risk factors for ENTD were age, PS and LDH. Extensive stage had a hazard ratio of 1.9 (P = 0.07). Risk factors for ETD were EP, PS and LDH, whereas age and stage were not. For EP, the hazard ratio was as high as 6.7 (P = 0.0001). We introduced a simple prognostic algorithm including performance status, LDH and age. Using a prognostic algorithm to exclude poor-risk patients from trials, we could minimize early death, improve long-term survival and increase the survival differences between different regimens. We suggest that other groups evaluate our algorithm and exclude poor prognosis patients from trials of dose intensification. © 1999 Cancer Research Campaig

Chromogranin A, a significant prognostic factor in small cell lung cancer

Chromogranin A (CgA) is a protein present in neuroendocrine vesicles. Small cell lung cancer (SCLC) is considered a neuroendocrine tumour. It is possible to demonstrate CgA expression in SCLC by immunohistochemical methods. Since CgA is released to the circulation it might also work as a clinical tumour marker. We used a newly developed two-site enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for CgA in plasma from 150 newly diagnosed patients with SCLC. Follow-up was for a minimum of 5 years. Thirty-seven per cent of the patients had elevated pretreatment values and the values were significantly related to stage of disease. Multivariable analysis by Cox's proportional hazard model including nine known prognostic factors disclosed performance status as the most influential prognostic factor followed by stage of disease, CgA and LDH. A simple prognostic index (PI) could be established based on these four pretreatment features. In this way the patients could be separated into three groups with significant different prognosis. The median survival and 95% confidence intervals for the three groups were as follows: 424 days (311–537), 360 days (261–459) and 174 days (105–243). © 1999 Cancer Research Campaig