Application of Time Series Modelling for Predicting the Export Potential of Indian Leather Footwear

Indian leather industry plays a vital role in contributing towards Indian economy. Also it is the core strength of the Indian footwear industry.  According to the Indian leather industry about 37% of the total leather export value is from leather footwear. This shows the importance of studying the trends in leather footwear export, to assist in decision making process. This article proposes a time series model based on monthly export values of leather footwear from India during January, 1999 to March, 2013. In this article based on the information criterion, we identified ARIMA (1, 1, 1) (1, 2, 2) model as a reasonable model to predict the export values of leather footwear from India. This proposed model is used to forecast the export values of leather footwear for the year 2013 – 2014. Keywords: AIC, BIC, leather footwear export, forecast, SARIMA model, time serie

A Software Model for Estimation and Prediction of Unevenly Spaced Livestock Population

The prediction software for livestock population and availability of hides and skins, named as LivSoft is a simple software tool for the prediction of livestock population and estimation of availability of hides and skins from the predicted livestock population. This software is developed for the benefit of leather industry/sector. Database on livestock population has been obtained from livestock census data. It automatically does the calculation by using the parameters like annual growth rate and standard error, basically which forms an input for the statistical model to predict the livestock population and thereby estimating the availability of hides and skins. The predicted livestock population is validated / compared with the regression model. This version will predict the livestock population at the national level. Key words: Statistical Modelling, Database, Regression, Growth Rate, Net Off-Take Rate, Livsof