ELPIS-JP: a dataset of local-scale daily climate change scenarios for Japan

We developed a dataset of local-scale daily climate change scenarios for Japan (called ELPIS-JP) using the stochastic weather generators (WGs) LARS-WG and, in part, WXGEN. The ELPIS-JP dataset is based on the observed (or estimated) daily weather data for seven climatic variables (daily mean, maximum and minimum temperatures; precipitation; solar radiation; relative humidity; and wind speed) at 938 sites in Japan and climate projections from the multi-model ensemble of global climate models (GCMs) used in the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP3) and multi-model ensemble of regional climate models form the Japanese downscaling project (called S-5-3). The capability of the WGs to reproduce the statistical features of the observed data for the period 1981–2000 is assessed using several statistical tests and quantile–quantile plots. Overall performance of the WGs was good. The ELPIS-JP dataset consists of two types of daily data: (i) the transient scenarios throughout the twenty-first century using projections from 10 CMIP3 GCMs under three emission scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1) and (ii) the time-slice scenarios for the period 2081–2100 using projections from three S-5-3 regional climate models. The ELPIS-JP dataset is designed to be used in conjunction with process-based impact models (e.g. crop models) for assessment, not only the impacts of mean climate change but also the impacts of changes in climate variability, wet/dry spells and extreme events, as well as the uncertainty of future impacts associated with climate models and emission scenarios. The ELPIS-JP offers an excellent platform for probabilistic assessment of climate change impacts and potential adaptation at a local scale in Japan

Hydrological cycle in the Danube basin in present-day and XXII century simulations by IPCCAR4 global climate models

We present an intercomparison and verification analysis of 20 GCMs (Global Circulation Models) included in the 4th IPCC assessment report regarding their representation of the hydrological cycle on the Danube river basin for 1961–2000 and for the 2161–2200 SRESA1B scenario runs. The basin-scale properties of the hydrological cycle are computed by spatially integrating the precipitation, evaporation, and runoff fields using the Voronoi-Thiessen tessellation formalism. The span of the model- simulated mean annual water balances is of the same order of magnitude of the observed Danube discharge of the Delta; the true value is within the range simulated by the models. Some land components seem to have deficiencies since there are cases of violation of water conservation when annual means are considered. The overall performance and the degree of agreement of the GCMs are comparable to those of the RCMs (Regional Climate Models) analyzed in a previous work, in spite of the much higher resolution and common nesting of the RCMs. The reanalyses are shown to feature several inconsistencies and cannot be used as a verification benchmark for the hydrological cycle in the Danubian region. In the scenario runs, for basically all models the water balance decreases, whereas its interannual variability increases. Changes in the strength of the hydrological cycle are not consistent among models: it is confirmed that capturing the impact of climate change on the hydrological cycle is not an easy task over land areas. Moreover, in several cases we find that qualitatively different behaviors emerge among the models: the ensemble mean does not represent any sort of average model, and often it falls between the models’ clusters

Genotyping-by-Sequencing and Ecological Niche Modeling Illuminate Phylogeography, Admixture, and Pleistocene Range Dynamics in Quaking Aspen (Populus Tremuloides)

Populus tremuloides is the widest‐ranging tree species in North America and an ecologically important component of mesic forest ecosystems displaced by the Pleistocene glaciations. Using phylogeographic analyses of genome‐wide SNPs (34,796 SNPs, 183 individuals) and ecological niche modeling, we inferred population structure, ploidy levels, admixture, and Pleistocene range dynamics of P. tremuloides, and tested several historical biogeographical hypotheses. We found three genetic lineages located mainly in coastal–Cascades (cluster 1), east‐slope Cascades–Sierra Nevadas–Northern Rockies (cluster 2), and U.S. Rocky Mountains through southern Canadian (cluster 3) regions of the P. tremuloides range, with tree graph relationships of the form ((cluster 1, cluster 2), cluster 3). Populations consisted mainly of diploids (86%) but also small numbers of triploids (12%) and tetraploids (1%), and ploidy did not adversely affect our genetic inferences. The main vector of admixture was from cluster 3 into cluster 2, with the admixture zone trending northwest through the Rocky Mountains along a recognized phenotypic cline (Utah to Idaho). Clusters 1 and 2 provided strong support for the “stable‐edge hypothesis” that unglaciated southwestern populations persisted in situ since the last glaciation. By contrast, despite a lack of clinal genetic variation, cluster 3 exhibited “trailing‐edge” dynamics from niche suitability predictions signifying complete northward postglacial expansion. Results were also consistent with the “inland dispersal hypothesis” predicting postglacial assembly of Pacific Northwestern forest ecosystems, but rejected the hypothesis that Pacific‐coastal populations were colonized during outburst flooding from glacial Lake Missoula. Overall, congruent patterns between our phylogeographic and ecological niche modeling results and fossil pollen data demonstrate complex mixtures of stable‐edge, refugial locations, and postglacial expansion within P. tremuloides. These findings confirm and refine previous genetic studies, while strongly supporting a distinct Pacific‐coastal genetic lineage of quaking aspen

Pacific climate variability and the possible impact on global surface CO2 flux

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Climate variability modifies both oceanic and terrestrial surface CO2 flux. Using observed/assimilated data sets, earlier studies have shown that tropical oceanic climate variability has strong impacts on the land surface temperature and soil moisture, and that there is a negative correlation between the oceanic and terrestrial CO2 fluxes. However, these data sets only cover less than the most recent 20 years and are insufficient for identifying decadal and longer periodic variabilities. To investigate possible impacts of interannual to interdecadal climate variability on CO2 flux exchange, the last 125 years of an earth system model (ESM) control run are examined.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Global integration of the terrestrial CO2 flux anomaly shows variation much greater in amplitude and longer in periodic timescale than the oceanic flux. The terrestrial CO2 flux anomaly correlates negatively with the oceanic flux in some periods, but positively in others, as the periodic timescale is different between the two variables. To determine the spatial pattern of the variability, a series of composite analyses are performed. The results show that the oceanic CO2 flux variability peaks when the eastern tropical Pacific has a large sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA). By contrast, the terrestrial CO2 flux variability peaks when the SSTA appears in the central tropical Pacific. The former pattern of variability resembles the ENSO-mode and the latter the ENSO-modoki¹.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our results imply that the oceanic and terrestrial CO2 flux anomalies may correlate either positively or negatively depending on the relative phase of these two modes in the tropical Pacific.</p